The Republican Party during the Taft Administration
During his first year in office, President Taft set in motion a series of events leading to a split in the Republican Party. By the middle of 1909, the more progressive Republicans were complaining that Taft was granting the more business-minded Republicans total leeway on the filling of political positions.
The off-year elections of 1909 were to a large degree fought on local issues relating to reform, and they were mostly a draw between the two parties. In New York State, Governor Charles E. Hughes asked the legislature to pass a bill providing for primary elections for each state office except Presidential Elector [NYT 1/7/1909]. The proposal for primaries became the major issue in the state legislative elections, in which the Democrats gained five seats [NYT 11/4/1909]. Gubernatorial races were retained by the Republicans in RI and MA, though in the latter state bolting reformers almost delivered the race to the Democrats. Reformers won control of the mayorship of Indianapolis, but "machine" candidates won in New York City, Buffalo, Albany, and Cincinnati.
The following year (1910), former Pres. Roosevelt and sitting VP James Sherman sought to be the temporary chairman of the New York State Republican convention. Sherman's victory there was the first sign that the progressive Republicans faced major challenges if they wanted to work within the party. The rift spilled over into Michigan, where local conventions in the summer became polarized over TR. [NYT 8/29/1910]
Intra-party tension cost the Republicans dearly in the midterm elections of 1910. Their major defeat was in Congress. In the Senate, the Democrats took ten seats from the Republicans, cutting the margin in half. The Democrats took control of the U.S. House, defeating 45 incumbent Republicans to move from a 47 vote deficit to a majority of 67. In gubernatorial races, the Democrats took ID, ME, and NJ while the Republicans took NE, NV, and TN. An Independent was elected in Wyoming, taking that seat out of the Republican column.
Establishing the initial presidential primaries
A major goal of the progressives in 1911 was a push for primaries. By the time Joseph Folk announced his candidacy as a Democrat for President on 7/12/1911, at least six states had passed legislation for delegates to the national convention to be chosen in primaries: ND, WI, NE, OR, NJ, and FL. [NYT 7/13/1911 - Florida was left off this list]
Progressive Republicans increased their calls for primaries following the off-year election of 1911. On the interesting date of 11/11/1911, leading Progressives contacted all Republican state chairmen and asked them to provide for selection of delegates to the upcoming Republican National Convention by primaries. Sen. Albert B. Cummins, a moderate progressive from Iowa, endorsed the idea and asked Republicans to stop pressing him to run for President. He endorsed the only announced candidate, Sen. Robert M. LaFollette WI. [NYT 11/11/1911]
An interesting primary election law issue at the time was the issue of "instructing." If a delegate were chosen in a primary based on support of a particular candidate, could that delegate be legally bound to vote for that candidate? The issue arose during the debates in Ohio, where the old law of 1908 providing for voluntary primaries was being debated. In 1908, Taft managed to sweep the Ohio Republican primary by having his "anti-machine" candidates for delegates printed in a column under his name and the "machine delegates," who supported Sen. Joseph Foraker, placed in a column under Foraker's name. This informal pledging of delegates was not part of the 1908 law, but Ohio lawmakers were generally opposed to the "popularity contest" model unless the delegates voted accordingly. [NYT 11/28/1911]
The significance of the Ohio discussion became clear quickly. Sen. Cummins drafted a bill providing for a national presidential primary. He recommended that a national primary on 8/1/1912 choose the candidates. The national conventions would adopt the platform and organize the party but nothing else. The machinery for determining the winner would be similar to that for counting the electoral votes. [NYT 12/2/1911]
During the last two months of 1911, Progressive Republican leaders questioned how to proceed for the spring primaries. LaFollette was gaining endorsements from progressives around the nation, but he was perceived to be too radical for the party. One by one, leading progressives began to come out for President Roosevelt. On 11/21/1911, Roosevelt's name was officially entered into a primary, that of Nebraska [NYT 11/22/1911]. TR finally announced on 12/23/1911 that he would accept the nomination if granted to him, but that he would not campaign for it. This was interpreted as the go-ahead for Roosevelt delegates to contest each state. [NYT 12/24/1911]
The Primary Season of 1912
The jockeying by Taft, Roosevelt, and LaFollette began in state conventions and continued through the primary season. By the time of the first presidential preference primary, held in North Dakota on 3/19/1912, Taft was leading in the delegate count with 127 to 10 for his challengers. These delegates had been chosen in conventions. NYT 3/14/1912
Voters who braved the cold rain in North Dakota on primary day (3/19/1912) handed the first official presidential primary to LaFollette. The campaign there was almost exclusively a TR vs. LaFollette race; LaFollette ended up with 57% to 40% for TR and 3% for Taft. Roosevelt explained the loss was due to Democrats who voted for LaFollette to embarrass his candidacy. [NYT 3/20/1912]
Pres. Taft's first major victory came in New York's primary on 3/26/1912. Just before the vote, the New York Times reported that Taft had won 134 out of the 170 delegates chosen nationwide [NYT 3/24/1912]. New York Republicans voted overwhelmingly for Taft, by roughly a 2:1 margin. New York City gave Taft nearly 70% of the vote there. It was a stunning repudiation of Roosevelt in his home state and his second loss in the first two presidential primaries.
Roosevelt changed his strategy following his New York debacle. He issued an ultimatum to Republicans on 3/28/1912 to nominate him; otherwise, he would run as an independent [NYT 3/28/1912]. With local conventions being held nearly on a daily basis, Roosevelt was falling further behind in the delegate counts.
LaFollette scored another major victory on 4/2/1912 when he won his home state of Wisconsin. He defeated Taft by a 73-26% margin; Roosevelt missed the filing deadline but received some write-in votes.
Roosevelt's fortunes began to change with the Illinois primary on 4/9/1912. In his first primary victory, TR won 61% of the vote to Taft 29% and LaFollette 10%. Roosevelt won every county, though Taft won some Congressional Districts in Chicago. Including NYS, the count of delegates chosen in primaries was Taft-84, TR-68, and LaFollette-36.
In the two weeks following the Illinois primary, Roosevelt won three states. He defeated Taft by a 60-40% margin in PA on 4/13/1912. Nebraska and Oregon voted on 4/19/1912. Roosevelt won NE with 59% (Taft placed behind LaFollette) and OR with 40% to LaFollette 31% and Taft 29%. Taft ended the month with a 50-48% win in Massachusetts. Due to the MA ballot offering a presidential preference separate from the delegate vote, TR won more delegates even though he placed second. At the end of the month, Roosevelt was leading in delegates chosen in primaries with 179 to 108 for Taft and 36 for LaFollette. The nationwide delegate count, however, was Taft 428, TR 204, and LaFollette 36. [NYT 4/28/1912]
Five states voted in the final four weeks of the primary season, and Roosevelt won all five states. He won Maryland 53-47 over Taft. In California, Roosevelt received 55% to Taft 27% and LaFollette 18%. The major shock of the primary season was TR's 55-40% defeat of Taft in his home state of Ohio on 5/21/1912. One week later, TR won New Jersey, 56-41%. The primary season ended in South Dakota, where TR won 55% to Taft 29% and LaFollette 16%.
Altogether, TR won 284 delegates in the primaries to 125 for Taft and 36 for LaFollette. Including delegates chosen in party conventions, Taft had a 571-439 margin, placing Taft over the 540 needed for nomination. [NYT 5/29/1912]
Republican National Convention of 1912
Popular Vote of 1912
Electoral Vote of 1912
Republican Presidential Primaries of 1916
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