--
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
--
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
New User Account
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
Email:
Password:
AR US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents
>
United States
>
Arkansas
>
Senate Class II
Office
Senate
Honorific
Senator - Abbr: Sen.
Type
General Election
Filing Deadline
June 01, 2014 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open
November 04, 2014 - 07:30am Central
Polls Close
November 04, 2014 - 07:30pm Central
Term Start
January 03, 2015 - 12:00pm
Term End
January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Contributor
Ashley
Last Modified
WSNJ
March 01, 2020 03:53pm
Data Sources
[Link]
Description
Filing deadline speculative.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Democratic
Won
11/04/2008
Name
Mark Pryor
Votes
804,678 (79.53%)
Term
01/03/2009 - 01/03/2015
Margin
597,602 (+59.07%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Republican
Won
11/03/2020
Name
Tom Cotton
Votes
793,871 (66.53%)
Term
01/03/2021 - 01/03/2027
Margin
394,481 (+33.06%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
May 20, 2014
AR US Senate - R Primary
Tom Cotton
R
1
May 20, 2014
AR US Senate - D Primary
Mark Pryor
D
1
LEANING PREDICTIONS
Detail
Leaning Graph
06/12/2009
11/04/2014
Candidate
Slight
Lean
Strong
Safe
Mark Pryor
5
4
1
1
Tom Cotton
14
9
7
1
Leaning Call: Tom Cotton (74.03%)
Weighted Call: Tom Cotton (88.28%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
03/16/2013
11/01/2014
Graph Poll MoE/Time
Remove Internal Polls
Remove Firm Bias
Graph Distance
Graph Falloff
Graph Days
Graph Day Offset
Ignore Pollsters:
ALG Research (D)
Answers Unlimited
Basswood Research (R)
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News
Clark Research
Global Strategy Group (D)
Gravis Marketing
Harper Polling
Harstad Strategic (D)
Hickman Research
Impact Management Group
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)
Marist Institute
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Opinion Research Associates Inc
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
Public Policy Polling
Rasmussen Reports
Suffolk University
Talk Business
the polling company™ (R)
University of Arkansas
YouGov
CANDIDATES
Photo
Name
Rep.
Tom Cotton
(I)
Sen.
Mark Pryor
Nathan LaFrance
Mark Swaney
(W)
Write-In
Party
Republican
Democratic
Libertarian
Green
Nonpartisan
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes
478,819 (56.50%)
334,174 (39.43%)
17,210 (2.03%)
16,797 (1.98%)
505 (0.06%)
Margin
0 (0.00%)
-144,645 (-17.07%)
-461,609 (-54.47%)
-462,022 (-54.52%)
-478,314 (-56.44%)
Predict Avg.
51.50%
44.00%
0.50%
1.50%
0.00%
Cash On Hand
$--
$--
$--
$--
$--
Website
[Website]
[Website]
Entry Date
03/06/2014
01/01/2012
03/06/2014
03/06/2014
01/01/2014
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (46 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg
47.42%
--
40.21%
--
1.30%
--
1.48%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Associates Inc
10/30/14-11/01/14
43.00%
1.0
45.00%
--
1.00%
--
3.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
10/30/14-11/01/14
49.00%
6.0
41.00%
3.0
0.00%
3.0
0.00%
3.0
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
10/27/14-10/29/14
51.00%
4.0
44.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
University of Arkansas
10/21/14-10/27/14
49.00%
--
36.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Associates Inc
10/25/14-10/26/14
44.00%
--
45.00%
--
1.00%
--
1.00%
--
0.00%
--
YouGov
10/16/14-10/23/14
47.00%
2.0
42.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
10/18/14-10/22/14
45.00%
--
43.00%
3.0
0.00%
2.0
0.00%
3.0
0.00%
--
Talk Business
10/15/14-10/16/14
49.00%
5.0
40.50%
1.5
2.50%
0.5
2.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News
10/04/14-10/07/14
46.00%
--
39.00%
--
2.00%
--
2.00%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
10/01/14-10/05/14
42.00%
7.0
45.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
YouGov
09/20/14-10/01/14
45.00%
2.0
41.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
09/24/14-09/25/14
47.00%
4.0
40.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Suffolk University
09/20/14-09/23/14
43.00%
--
45.00%
--
3.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
09/18/14-09/21/14
43.00%
1.0
38.00%
5.0
3.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Hickman Research
09/13/14-09/18/14
43.00%
--
46.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
09/08/14-09/11/14
47.00%
4.0
43.00%
1.0
2.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Answers Unlimited
09/07/14-09/09/14
42.00%
--
46.00%
--
2.00%
--
2.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
09/02/14-09/04/14
45.00%
5.0
40.00%
11.0
2.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Hickman Research
08/26/14-09/03/14
43.00%
--
45.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
08/28/14-09/02/14
49.00%
--
47.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
YouGov
08/18/14-09/02/14
43.00%
6.0
39.00%
6.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
08/25/14-08/26/14
43.00%
2.0
44.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
08/01/14-08/03/14
41.00%
3.0
39.00%
5.0
3.00%
--
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
Talk Business
07/22/14-07/25/14
44.00%
1.5
42.00%
3.5
3.00%
1.0
4.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
YouGov
07/05/14-07/24/14
49.00%
--
45.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
ALG Research (D)
07/20/14-07/24/14
46.00%
1.0
48.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Harstad Strategic (D)
07/07/14-07/10/14
39.00%
--
45.00%
--
3.00%
--
2.00%
--
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
07/08/14-07/09/14
51.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Impact Management Group
06/29/14-06/29/14
47.00%
1.0
43.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)
06/04/14-06/05/14
49.00%
--
45.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
05/06/14-05/08/14
42.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
OnMessage Inc. (R)
05/06/14-05/08/14
42.00%
--
40.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
04/30/14-05/04/14
40.00%
--
51.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Harper Polling
04/09/14-04/10/14
39.00%
4.0
39.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Talk Business
04/03/14-04/04/14
42.50%
--
45.50%
--
2.00%
--
2.00%
--
0.00%
--
ALG Research (D)
03/27/14-04/02/14
45.00%
--
48.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Impact Management Group
02/12/14-02/12/14
46.00%
--
42.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
02/04/14-02/05/14
45.00%
--
40.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
12/13/13-12/15/13
44.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
the polling company™ (R)
12/06/13-12/07/13
48.00%
--
41.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Global Strategy Group (D)
08/26/13-08/29/13
41.00%
--
47.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
the polling company™ (R)
08/06/13-08/07/13
43.00%
--
45.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Harper Polling
08/04/13-08/05/13
43.00%
--
41.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Clark Research
07/29/13-07/29/13
35.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Basswood Research (R)
06/22/13-06/23/13
40.00%
3.0
41.00%
6.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Basswood Research (R)
03/16/13-03/17/13
43.00%
--
35.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
EVENTS
Start Date
End Date
Type
Title
Contributor
VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date
Candidate
Category
Ad Tone
Lng
Title
Run Time
Contributor
10/08/2014
Tom Cotton
TVAd
Feel Good
eng
Head On
00:00:30
RP
10/08/2014
vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Attack
eng
Smaller
00:00:30
RP
10/07/2014
vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Attack
eng
Our Vote
00:00:32
RP
10/01/2014
Mark Pryor vs Tom Cotton
TVAd
Issue
eng
Concerned
00:00:30
RP
10/01/2014
Mark Pryor vs Tom Cotton
TVAd
Issue
eng
End
00:00:30
RP
10/01/2014
Mark Pryor
TVAd
Biography
eng
Smaller
00:00:30
RP
09/30/2014
vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Attack
eng
Lost
00:00:30
RP
09/29/2014
Tom Cotton vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Issue
eng
Gina
00:01:00
RP
09/24/2014
vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Attack
eng
You Failed Us
00:00:30
RP
09/22/2014
Mark Pryor vs Tom Cotton
TVAd
Issue
eng
Risk
00:00:30
RP
09/18/2014
Tom Cotton
TVAd
Issue
eng
Listened
00:00:30
RP
09/17/2014
Tom Cotton
TVAd
Endorsement
eng
NRA Endorses Tom Cotton for U.S. Senate in Arkansas
00:00:34
RP
09/16/2014
vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Attack
eng
Double Standard
00:00:32
RP
09/15/2014
vs Tom Cotton
TVAd
Attack
eng
Now We Know
00:00:30
RP
09/12/2014
vs Mark Pryor
TVAd
Attack
eng
12 Years
00:00:30
RP
05/31/2013
Mark Pryor
TVAd
Defend
eng
Real Solutions to Gun Control
00:00:31
RP
BOOKS
Title
Purchase
Contributor
INFORMATION LINKS
NEWS
Date
Category
Headline
Article
Contributor
Jun 14, 2013 07:40am
News
NRA has Pryor's back — for now
Article
Scott³
Add Your 2¢
Agree
Disagree
Laugh
Groan
Troll
Befuddled
Work Complete
Prediction
[close]
DISCUSSION
[View All
1
Previous Messages]