Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A collaborative political resource." 
Email: Password:

  VA US President
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Virginia > President
Parent RaceUS President - Popular Vote
OfficePresident
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00pm
Polls Open November 06, 2012 - 05:00am
Polls Close November 06, 2012 - 06:00pm
Term Start January 20, 2013 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2017 - 12:00pm
Turnout 54.45% Total Population
ContributorJason
Last ModifiedRBH December 17, 2012 04:22pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/04/2008
NameBarack Obama Votes1,959,532 (52.63%)
Term01/20/2009 - 01/20/2013 Margin234,527 (+6.30%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 06, 2012 VA US President - R Primary Mitt Romney
Mar 06, 2012 VA US President - D Primary Barack Obama
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.6667003632 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/29/2008 11/06/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Barack Obama 33 14 ----
Mitt Romney 12 3 ----
Leaning Call: Barack Obama (77.22%)
Weighted Call: Barack Obama (86.33%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
11/10/2010 11/04/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) President Barack Obama Gov. Mitt Romney Gov. Gary Johnson Rep. Virgil H. Goode, Jr. Jill Stein (W) Write-In (W) Mayor Rocky Anderson
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Constitution Green Nonpartisan Justice
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes1,971,820 (51.16%) 1,822,522 (47.28%) 31,216 (0.81%) 13,058 (0.34%) 8,627 (0.22%) 7,151 (0.19%) 76 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -149,298 (-3.87%) -1,940,604 (-50.35%) -1,958,762 (-50.82%) -1,963,193 (-50.93%) -1,964,669 (-50.97%) -1,971,744 (-51.15%)
Predict Avg.49.23% 47.92% 0.76% 1.45% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (100 from 26 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.07%-- 45.91%-- 0.74%-- 0.24%-- -0.11%-- 0.17%-- 0.00%--
Rasmussen Reports 
11/04/12-11/04/12
48.00% -- 50.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/03/12-11/04/12
51.00% 2.0 47.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
JZ Analytics / Zogby Analytics 
11/02/12-11/04/12
50.20% 0.3 42.30% 0.2 2.30% 0.3 0.30% 0.2 0.30% 0.1 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Ipsos 
11/02/12-11/04/12
47.00% 1.0 46.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
JZ Analytics / Zogby Analytics 
11/01/12-11/03/12
49.90% 3.6 42.10% 5.0 2.00% 1.2 0.50% 0.5 0.20% 0.2 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
48.00% 2.0 46.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
  Richmond Times-Dispatch
IGVA Gail Parker [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Jill Reed (W) Joseph Glean (W) Sheila "Samm" Tittle  
PartyTwelve Visions Independent We the People  
Website [Website]  
Certified Votes14 (0.00%) 4 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,971,806 (-51.16%) -1,971,816 (-51.16%) -1,971,819 (-51.16%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (100 from 26 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.31%-- 0.00%--  
Rasmussen Reports 
11/04/12-11/04/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/03/12-11/04/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
JZ Analytics / Zogby Analytics 
11/02/12-11/04/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Ipsos 
11/02/12-11/04/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
JZ Analytics / Zogby Analytics 
11/01/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 06, 2012 03:45pm News [VA] Turnout likely higher than in 2008, state elections official says  Article Andy 
Sep 28, 2012 11:55pm News Virginia man kills family and himself over fear Obama would be re-elected  Article COSDem 
Sep 04, 2012 11:00am News Virgil Goode makes presidential ballot in Virginia  Article John 
Dec 21, 2009 03:50pm Poll Virginia: Obama Finishes First Full Year With a 44% Approval Rating  Article Scott³ 
Jul 08, 2009 08:00pm Poll Obama Popularity Declining in Virginia  Article Scott³ 

DISCUSSION
[View All
104
Previous Messages]
 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Wed, July 11, 2012 05:06:41 AM UTC0:00
00: I'm sure every district in the country experiences "some change in residents" over a 6 year period -- which is a fact that obviously cuts against Goode here, since 6 years ago was the last time he won.

it's a bit more dramatic for metro ATL and the exurbs. The outer rings of those exurbs had some of the largest growth in the last 10 years.

I'd expect most of Goode's strength to be around Rocky Mount. So a few counties around South-Central Virginia

And if he has the word Independent in his party label, i'd imagine he would fare better than if he had Constitution Party as his party label

 
R:801400 ( 26.6800 points)
Wed, July 11, 2012 05:54:48 AM UTC0:00
Yeah. But I'm not talking Atlanta metro. Places like Floyd County. A county that Barr performed well in during time in Congress and didn't really translate into his third party run for President.

Obviously Goode and Barr are not identical comparisons but the pool of former Congressmen who ran for President on a third party ticket is decidedly small.

And if that "independent" label is actually "Independent Green" on the ballot like last time around, I'd imagine Goode would fare much better in South-Central Virginia with the Constitution Party label.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Wed, July 11, 2012 11:54:13 PM UTC0:00
The polls are too early to take seriously in any state as yet, and my inclination has always been to put Virginia in almost the same category as Indiana and North Carolina, with respect to its likelihood of returning to the GOP column in 2012. But I hadn't considered the possibility that Virgil Goode might throw the race to Obama. Since I'm voting for him (Goode) anyway, I think that'd be kinda cool. Always nice for a 3rd party candidate to have some impact. Maybe Goode will swing Virginia over to Obama, and cost Romney an Electoral College majority. I'd freakin' pay money to see that happen.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Wed, July 11, 2012 11:56:36 PM UTC0:00
And for the record, I'm starting to lean back in favor of Romney over Obama in the lesser-of-two-evils contest (some of you are probably surprised to hear I favor Obama at all, but I do have him presently endorsed the December 2012 Electoral College race). But sticking it to the BiPartisan Party (right in the ass, ideally) is always going to be a higher priority for yours truly, as opposed to worrying about which of its wings wins a given election.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Thu, July 12, 2012 12:00:18 AM UTC0:00
Goode lost his last Congressional race. He'll get a few votes, but not enough to cost Romney the state.

I think its pretty reasonable to tend towards the assumption Virginia will be very close this year. I doubt many people in July of 2000 thought David McReynolds would potentially cost Al Gore the state of Florida (and the Presidency), but there it was. Goode could easily swing the Virginia race without breaking 2.5 percent of the popular vote (which is like ten times what McReynolds got).

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
x4
Thu, July 12, 2012 01:02:49 AM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: some of you are probably surprised to hear I favor Obama at all

Nope.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Thu, July 12, 2012 01:44:16 AM UTC0:00
I would basically rather die than vote for a neo-con. That there exist other people who don't hold that view is puzzling to me. That most of these people consider themselves to be "conservatives," is preposterous. If you're going to vote for a neocon, you might as well just become a Trotskyite.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Thu, July 12, 2012 01:45:44 AM UTC0:00
Still, now that the USSC has ruled Obamacare is a tax, and thus it can be repealed in the Senate with a simple majority (rather than a filibuster-proof 3/5ths majority), then Romney may well be the lesser of two evils. But I ain't voting for evil, either way.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Thu, July 12, 2012 01:52:37 AM UTC0:00
All Romney would have to do in order to get me to vote for him is say "We've been in enough wars in the Middle East lately. I don't see any reason we need a war with Iran, too." That's all it would take. And it ain't freakin' much...but its about 100 times more than he will ever give me.

That wouldn't make him a paleo-con. it would just make him a Republican politician who isn't insane and/or profoundly stupid. But I guess that's just too much to ask, so I'll vote for a sensible human being instead, which necessitates the Third Party option.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Thu, July 12, 2012 01:57:24 AM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: I would basically rather die than vote for a neo-con. That there exist other people who don't hold that view is puzzling to me.

No, we'd all rather you die than vote for a neo-con.

(Just kidding Kevin! Keep up the posts.)

 
RC:6380Zeus the Moose ( 645.5382 points)
Thu, July 12, 2012 05:57:27 AM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: If you're going to vote for a neocon, you might as well just become a Trotskyite.

You got the evolution backwards.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Fri, July 13, 2012 02:16:34 AM UTC0:00
Obama pollster - 3 point race.
PPP - 14 point race.


Hmmm. Who to believe? Vexing question if there ever is one!

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Fri, July 20, 2012 02:26:06 AM UTC0:00
Hmmmm

Let's have fun picking the outlier!!

Obama pac pollster (Global Strategy) +3 Obama
Quinniapiac Even
Rasmussen +1 Obama
PPP +14 Obama (hint, hint)
Purple Poll +2 Obama

Isn't this fun?

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Fri, July 20, 2012 03:04:09 AM UTC0:00
Thats bc the PPP+14 poll has Goode. The one w/o Goode has Obama+8. You know this. Quit being a f*cking idiot.

 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 179.1036 points)
x2
Fri, July 20, 2012 03:58:23 AM UTC0:00
The nitpicking over PPP was annoying a long time ago. Repeating the same thing over and over again is ridiculous.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
x2
Fri, July 20, 2012 08:54:39 AM UTC0:00
Repetition is Scott's raison d'être.

 
LBT:8827Smart ( 1017.9734 points)
Tue, September 4, 2012 07:46:56 PM UTC0:00
"Virgil Goode makes presidential ballot in Virginia"

Obama's second term? Guaranteed. Thank you Virgil!

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
x2
Tue, September 4, 2012 09:41:05 PM UTC0:00
I wouldn't go that far but he's not gonna hurt.

 
R:1490Imperator ( 2248.3596 points)
x2
Tue, September 4, 2012 10:41:04 PM UTC0:00
Amazing that control of 1.5 branches of the federal government could come down to a handful of voters in Virginia.

 
LBT:8449Jed Ziggler ( 433.7087 points)
x2
Tue, September 4, 2012 11:34:46 PM UTC0:00
Imperator: Amazing that control of 1.5 branches of the federal government could come down to a handful of voters in Virginia.

Thus the idiocy of the electoral college.

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
x2
Tue, September 4, 2012 11:51:10 PM UTC0:00
Jed Ziggler: <Q 1490>Amazing that control of 1.5 branches of the federal government could come down to a handful of voters in Virginia.
Thus the idiocy of the electoral college.
That wouldn't fix the Senate part of that equation.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
Wed, September 5, 2012 01:03:02 AM UTC0:00
John: That wouldn't fix the Senate part of that equation.

The electoral college may very well swing the Senate too considering a 50-50 tie is a real possibility.

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Thu, September 13, 2012 04:51:46 AM UTC0:00
the Indy Greens/Constitution Party alliance is a strange one, Parker is an elector for Goode (after Baldwin was the Indy Greens nominee in 2008)

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Fri, September 14, 2012 01:38:06 AM UTC0:00
NBC/WSJ/Marist, LV: Obama 49, Romney 44

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Mon, September 17, 2012 03:55:19 AM UTC0:00
the one-on-one matchup was 51/46 Obama