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"A historical political resource."
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MO US Senate
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| Parents |
> United States > Missouri > Senate Class I
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| Office | Senate |
| Type | General Election |
| Filing Deadline | March 27, 2012 - 05:00pm |
| Polls Open | November 06, 2012 - 06:00am |
| Polls Close | November 06, 2012 - 07:00pm |
| Term Start | January 03, 2013 - 12:00am |
| Term End | January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm |
| Turnout |
45.51% Total Population
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| Contributor | William Shakesman |
| Last Modified | RBH December 13, 2012 01:14am |
| Data Sources | [Link] |
| Description |
Going into this election, Claire McCaskill was considered one of the most likely Senators to lose re-election due to a move towards Republicans by Missouri voters in previous elections.
Todd Akin won the Republican primary in an upset. Akin was helped either by the intense media war between Sarah Steelman and John Brunner, or by an ad run by McCaskill during the Republican primary calling Akin "too conservative".
In the days after the primary, Akin had a lead on McCaskill in the polls. Until he had an interview with Charles Jaco on St. Louis TV. Questioned on his stance regarding abortions in the case of rape, Akin referred to "legitimate rapes" and said that the body would "shut itself down" and prevent pregnancy.
These comments led Republican leadership and SuperPACs to call on Akin to withdraw from the campaign. These groups also pull supported from Akin for much of the fall campaign.
Akin withstood these calls for the period of a month between the primary and the setting of the final ballot. During this time, McCaskill laid low, trying to not force Akin out of the race.
After the ballot was set, McCaskill and her allies displayed their monetary advantage by running ads reminding voters of Akin's comments and how they tied into his deeper record on issues.
Most public polling showed the election to be a slight McCaskill lead. But on election day, McCaskill won by over 15%, amassing the most votes of any candidate running in Missouri in that election.
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CANDIDATES |
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| Photo |  |
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| Name |
(I) Sen. Claire McCaskill |
Rep. Todd Akin |
Jonathan Dine |
(W) Ted Kimzey |
(W) Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. |
(W) William Dean |
(W) Bernie Mowinski |
| Party | Democratic |
Republican |
Libertarian |
Independent |
Independent |
Independent |
Independent |
| Website |
[Website]
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[Website]
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| Certified Votes |  1,494,125 (54.81%) |
1,066,159 (39.11%) |
165,468 (6.07%) |
15 (0.00%) |
9 (0.00%) |
6 (0.00%) |
5 (0.00%) |
| Margin | 0 (0.00%) |
-427,966 (-15.70%) |
-1,328,657 (-48.74%) |
-1,494,110 (-54.81%) |
-1,494,116 (-54.81%) |
-1,494,119 (-54.81%) |
-1,494,120 (-54.81%) |
| Predict Avg. | 50.06% |
46.75% |
2.90% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Cash On Hand |
$0.00
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3/31 $910,608.75
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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| Adj Poll Avg | 48.73% -- |
41.21%-- |
5.31%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
YouGov
10/31/12-11/03/12 |
52.00%  5.0 |
42.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Public Policy Polling (D)
11/02/12-11/03/12 |
48.00% 2.0 |
44.00% 4.0 |
6.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Survey USA
10/28/12-11/03/12 |
51.00% 11.0 |
36.00%  15.0 |
8.00% 4.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
We Ask America
10/30/12-10/30/12 |
48.60% 2.6 |
45.20% -- |
6.20% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Kiley & Company (D)
10/25/12-10/25/12 |
53.00% 1.0 |
39.00% 1.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Mason-Dixon
10/23/12-10/25/12 |
45.00% -- |
43.00% -- |
4.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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| Endorsements | |
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MORE CANDIDATES |
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| Photo | |
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| Name |
(W) Charlie L. Bailey |
(W) Arnie C. Dienoff |
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| Party | Independent |
Independent |
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| Website |
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| Certified Votes | 4 (0.00%) |
2 (0.00%) |
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| Margin | -1,494,121 (-54.81%) |
-1,494,123 (-54.81%) |
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| Predict Avg. | 0.00% |
0.00% |
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| Cash On Hand |
$--
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$--
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| Adj Poll Avg | 0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
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YouGov
10/31/12-11/03/12 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Public Policy Polling (D)
11/02/12-11/03/12 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Survey USA
10/28/12-11/03/12 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
We Ask America
10/30/12-10/30/12 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Kiley & Company (D)
10/25/12-10/25/12 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Mason-Dixon
10/23/12-10/25/12 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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| Endorsements | |
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| INFORMATION LINKS |
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| DISCUSSION |
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| [View All 178 Previous Messages] |
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 R:1153 | J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
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Thu, August 9, 2012 11:01:45 PM UTC0:00
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I know Akin trailed the other two by a point or two against McCaskill, but I think he was the safer pick. He's been in Congress enough that he knows the issues, and if he had any skeletons somebody probably would have found them already. If the knock that the Democrats are going to use is that he's "too conservative"... I mean, that's almost nothing.
I know Akin trailed the other two by a point or two against McCaskill, but I think he was the safer pick. He's been in Congress enough that he knows the issues, and if he had any skeletons somebody probably would have found them already. If the knock that the Democrats are going to use is that he's "too conservative"... I mean, that's almost nothing.
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Labour Dem
08/08/12 + 0.0000
The Democrats newest User#389!
Labour Dem
08/08/12 + 0.0000
The Democrats newest PaGuy!
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| LBT:8827 | Smart ( 1017.9734 points)
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Sun, August 12, 2012 07:24:32 AM UTC0:00
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I put this state as the most likely pick up for the GOP, even more so than Nebraska (which I know their going to win).
Deb Fischer is polling 25+ points ahead of her Dem opponent.
Todd Akin won't win by 25 points, or even half that.
Ryan34: I put this state as the most likely pick up for the GOP, even more so than Nebraska (which I know their going to win).
Deb Fischer is polling 25+ points ahead of her Dem opponent.
Todd Akin won't win by 25 points, or even half that.
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| R:1153 | J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
x2
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Tue, August 14, 2012 02:59:31 AM UTC0:00
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Pretty rough poll for McCaskill...
Pretty rough poll for McCaskill...
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 LPC:6149 | Dr. King Schultz ( 374.3755 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 08:49:51 AM UTC0:00
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So yeah I think it's quite clear after inserting his foot into his mouth Todd Akin's chances of winning definitely dropped.
So yeah I think it's quite clear after inserting his foot into his mouth Todd Akin's chances of winning definitely dropped.
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| D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 07:02:36 PM UTC0:00
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Akin's chances will drop because he's a crazy person, and his statement was just the first symptom of it we've seen in the general election race. There's a reason Democrats wanted him for an opponent.
Akin's chances will drop because he's a crazy person, and his statement was just the first symptom of it we've seen in the general election race. There's a reason Democrats wanted him for an opponent.
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God, why does my party seem bent on throwing away US Senate seats?
God, why does my party seem bent on throwing away US Senate seats?
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| P:130 | karin1492 ( 609.4522 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 08:24:02 PM UTC0:00
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Akin announced on Huckabee's radio show he's not quitting, saying he's not the only person to ever suffer from "foot-in-mouth disease"
Akin announced on Huckabee's radio show he's not quitting, saying he's not the only person to ever suffer from "foot-in-mouth disease"
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| P:130 | karin1492 ( 609.4522 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 08:28:01 PM UTC0:00
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Has anyone who has ever been in a situation where they announced they weren't quitting a race in the middle of a campaign ever won? That seems like a kiss of death to me.
Has anyone who has ever been in a situation where they announced they weren't quitting a race in the middle of a campaign ever won? That seems like a kiss of death to me.
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| I:6738 | IndyEurope ( 1064.3835 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 08:57:23 PM UTC0:00
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Rumors that the NRSC is urging Akin to drop out and if he doesn't, he won't get their support. Couldn't he just get some super PAC money to compensate?
Rumors that the NRSC is urging Akin to drop out and if he doesn't, he won't get their support. Couldn't he just get some super PAC money to compensate?
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| D:1107 | GavinBrown ( 1359.3580 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:03:33 PM UTC0:00
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I bet the NRSC is going to try their best to coax Talent into this if they convince Akin to drop out. What are the state's rules if Akin did drop out?
I bet the NRSC is going to try their best to coax Talent into this if they convince Akin to drop out. What are the state's rules if Akin did drop out?
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| D:704 | John ( 3346.7625 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:05:03 PM UTC0:00
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I bet the NRSC is going to try their best to coax Talent into this if they convince Akin to drop out. What are the state's rules if Akin did drop out?
I sincerely doubt it. Assuming Akin drops out, which looks a lot less likely after the Huckabee appearance (considering he has 28 hours and counting to get out of the race), they'd almost certainly go with Brunner, who got second in the primary.
GavinBrown: I bet the NRSC is going to try their best to coax Talent into this if they convince Akin to drop out. What are the state's rules if Akin did drop out?
I sincerely doubt it. Assuming Akin drops out, which looks a lot less likely after the Huckabee appearance (considering he has 28 hours and counting to get out of the race), they'd almost certainly go with Brunner, who got second in the primary.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:06:30 PM UTC0:00
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Word on the streets is that Crossroads GPS is bailing on Akin as well
Word on the streets is that Crossroads GPS is bailing on Akin as well
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| I:6738 | IndyEurope ( 1064.3835 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:07:29 PM UTC0:00
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Akin has to drop out by tomorrow at 5:00 in order to not incur a penalty. If he drops out before September 25th, he has to pay for any costs in terms of reprinting ballots. Either way, the state GOP central committee will nominate someone. I've heard that Brunner is gearing up for a potential replacement candidacy.
Akin has to drop out by tomorrow at 5:00 in order to not incur a penalty. If he drops out before September 25th, he has to pay for any costs in terms of reprinting ballots. Either way, the state GOP central committee will nominate someone. I've heard that Brunner is gearing up for a potential replacement candidacy.
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You know, regardless of the fact that Claire McCaskill spent money on ads for Todd Akin in the Republican primary, the man still won the thing and should go ahead as their nominee. It's the way the cookie of democracy crumbles, and I'd hope the Republicans who defended the Wisconsin GOP's running of fake Democrats in recall primaries to the death would agree with that.
You know, regardless of the fact that Claire McCaskill spent money on ads for Todd Akin in the Republican primary, the man still won the thing and should go ahead as their nominee. It's the way the cookie of democracy crumbles, and I'd hope the Republicans who defended the Wisconsin GOP's running of fake Democrats in recall primaries to the death would agree with that.
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| D:1107 | GavinBrown ( 1359.3580 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:13:12 PM UTC0:00
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Its not like Steelman was that far behind Brunner though.
Its not like Steelman was that far behind Brunner though.
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| D:704 | John ( 3346.7625 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:23:21 PM UTC0:00
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American Crossroads and the NRSC are both pulling funding if Akin stays in the race: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/08/20/republicans-pull-money-from-missouri/
American Crossroads and the NRSC are both pulling funding if Akin stays in the race: [Link]
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God its such a shame Talent didn't survive 2006.
God its such a shame Talent didn't survive 2006.
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| D:1 | RP ( 3311.3784 points)
x6
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Mon, August 20, 2012 09:49:48 PM UTC0:00
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American Crossroads and the NRSC are both pulling funding if Akin stays in the race
I bet if he stays in nonetheless they will change their tune after a few weeks.
John: American Crossroads and the NRSC are both pulling funding if Akin stays in the race
I bet if he stays in nonetheless they will change their tune after a few weeks.
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God its such a shame Talent didn't survive 2006.
Perhaps if he were a more Talented campaigner, he would have!
Christie-Toomey '16: God its such a shame Talent didn't survive 2006.
Perhaps if he were a more Talented campaigner, he would have!
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
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Mon, August 20, 2012 10:21:42 PM UTC0:00
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Akin says he's staying in the race and asks for money.
Ben Smith is mentioning that John ASHCROFT is a possibility. Ashcroft. Wow.
Akin says he's staying in the race and asks for money.
Ben Smith is mentioning that John ASHCROFT is a possibility. Ashcroft. Wow.
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Damn it Ms. Warren. This is the perfect time for you to do something stupid post haste!!!
Damn it Ms. Warren. This is the perfect time for you to do something stupid post haste!!!
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If Ashcroft replaces Akin, my endorsement goes to McCaskill.
If Ashcroft replaces Akin, my endorsement goes to McCaskill.
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| LBT:8827 | Smart ( 1017.9734 points)
 x2
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Tue, August 21, 2012 02:20:06 AM UTC0:00
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He should be replaced with Brunner, who was the second choice. Steelman shouldn't be able to object as she got third in the primary anyways.
at this point though, anyone is better than Akin.
He should be replaced with Brunner, who was the second choice. Steelman shouldn't be able to object as she got third in the primary anyways.
at this point though, anyone is better than Akin.
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| D:15 | COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
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Tue, August 21, 2012 02:21:11 AM UTC0:00
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Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent tells BuzzFeed that he is not running for Senate to replace Akin. He also declined to explicitly call for Akin to step aside, but backed NRSC Chair John Cornyn's cool statement that Akin make his decision quickly. http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/republican-source-akin-moving-to-withdraw
Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent tells BuzzFeed that he is not running for Senate to replace Akin. He also declined to explicitly call for Akin to step aside, but backed NRSC Chair John Cornyn's cool statement that Akin make his decision quickly. [Link]
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x2