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  MO US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Missouri > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 27, 2012 - 05:00pm
Polls Open November 06, 2012 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 06, 2012 - 07:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2013 - 12:00am
Term End January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Turnout 45.51% Total Population
ContributorGaear Grimsrud
Last ModifiedRBH December 13, 2012 01:14am
Data Sources[Link]
Description Going into this election, Claire McCaskill was considered one of the most likely Senators to lose re-election due to a move towards Republicans by Missouri voters in previous elections.

Todd Akin won the Republican primary in an upset. Akin was helped either by the intense media war between Sarah Steelman and John Brunner, or by an ad run by McCaskill during the Republican primary calling Akin "too conservative".

In the days after the primary, Akin had a lead on McCaskill in the polls. Until he had an interview with Charles Jaco on St. Louis TV. Questioned on his stance regarding abortions in the case of rape, Akin referred to "legitimate rapes" and said that the body would "shut itself down" and prevent pregnancy.

These comments led Republican leadership and SuperPACs to call on Akin to withdraw from the campaign. These groups also pull supported from Akin for much of the fall campaign.

Akin withstood these calls for the period of a month between the primary and the setting of the final ballot. During this time, McCaskill laid low, trying to not force Akin out of the race.

After the ballot was set, McCaskill and her allies displayed their monetary advantage by running ads reminding voters of Akin's comments and how they tied into his deeper record on issues.

Most public polling showed the election to be a slight McCaskill lead. But on election day, McCaskill won by over 15%, amassing the most votes of any candidate running in Missouri in that election.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/07/2006
NameClaire McCaskill Votes1,055,255 (49.58%)
Term01/03/2007 - 01/03/2013 Margin48,314 (+2.27%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 07, 2012 MO US Senate - R Primary Todd Akin
Aug 07, 2012 MO US Senate - D Primary Claire McCaskill
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.6250000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/22/2008 11/06/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Claire McCaskill 50 18 1 1
Todd Akin 10 3 4 --
Leaning Call: Claire McCaskill (76.86%)
Weighted Call: Claire McCaskill (86.69%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
03/01/2011 11/03/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) Sen. Claire McCaskill Rep. Todd Akin Jonathan Dine (W) Ted Kimzey (W) Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. (W) William Dean (W) Bernie Mowinski
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Independent Independent Independent Independent
Website [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes1,494,125 (54.81%) 1,066,159 (39.11%) 165,468 (6.07%) 15 (0.00%) 9 (0.00%) 6 (0.00%) 5 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -427,966 (-15.70%) -1,328,657 (-48.74%) -1,494,110 (-54.81%) -1,494,116 (-54.81%) -1,494,119 (-54.81%) -1,494,120 (-54.81%)
Predict Avg.50.06% 46.75% 2.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $0.00 3/31 $910,608.75 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (42 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.73%-- 41.21%-- 5.31%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
52.00% 5.0 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/02/12-11/03/12
48.00% 2.0 44.00% 4.0 6.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/28/12-11/03/12
51.00% 11.0 36.00% 15.0 8.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
10/30/12-10/30/12
48.60% 2.6 45.20% -- 6.20% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Kiley & Company (D) 
10/25/12-10/25/12
53.00% 1.0 39.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mason-Dixon 
10/23/12-10/25/12
45.00% -- 43.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
I Chase McFadden
R Spen
  St. Louis Post Dispatch
  Kansas City Star
R Zachary Wyatt [L]
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
R Scott³
LBT Silver Dime
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Charlie L. Bailey (W) Arnie C. Dienoff  
PartyIndependent Independent  
Website  
Certified Votes4 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,494,121 (-54.81%) -1,494,123 (-54.81%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (42 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%--  
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/02/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/28/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
10/30/12-10/30/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Kiley & Company (D) 
10/25/12-10/25/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mason-Dixon 
10/23/12-10/25/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
11/01/2012 Todd Akin TVAd Endorsement eng Care Ad   00:01:01 RP 
11/01/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Unfit  00:00:31 RP 
10/28/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Real Words - Scary  00:00:30 RBH 
10/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Real Words - Medicare   00:00:31 RP 
10/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Real Words - Middle Class   00:00:32 RP 
10/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Real Words - Minimum Wage   00:00:32 RP 
09/27/2012 vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Wrong for Missouri   00:00:32 RP 
09/26/2012 vs Todd Akin TVAd Biography eng Truth  00:00:30 RBH 
09/25/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Issue eng Balance  00:00:31 RP 
09/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Calendar - Next  00:00:30 RBH 
09/14/2012 Todd Akin vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Attack eng Broken Trust  00:00:30 RP 
09/07/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Biography eng Fifty  00:00:31 RP 
08/28/2012 Todd Akin vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Attack eng Six Seconds - Six Years   00:00:30 RP 
08/28/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Mixed eng Think About Family  00:00:31 RP 
08/20/2012 Todd Akin TVAd Defend eng Forgiveness  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
08/14/2012 vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Attack eng No Dice  00:00:31 RP 
08/14/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Stage 3   00:00:31 RP 
08/14/2012 Todd Akin vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Mixed eng Wrong Way Claire   00:00:30 RP 
08/13/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Todd Akin: Way out of Missouri's mainstream   00:00:30 RBH 
08/03/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin Radio Ad Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: Todd Akin (Radio Version)  00:01:02 RBH 
07/19/2012 Claire McCaskill vs TVAd Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: John Brunner  00:00:30 RBH 
07/19/2012 Claire McCaskill vs TVAd Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: Sarah Steelman  00:00:30 RBH 
07/19/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: Todd Akin   00:00:30 RBH 
05/24/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Issue eng Always Remember  00:00:31 RP 
10/04/2011 TVAd Attack eng ClaireAir: Why Won't Clair McCaskill Campaign With President Obama?  00:00:00 Conservative for America. 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 03, 2012 12:00pm Speech Todd Akin: Bible says government shouldn't educate children  Article RP 
Nov 01, 2012 01:00pm Strategy A GOP switch on Todd Akin?  Article RP 
Oct 23, 2012 05:20pm News Claire McCaskill Cancels Campaigning To Be With Ill Mother  Article RP 
Oct 23, 2012 05:00pm News Akin was arrested at least three times during '80s abortion protests  Article RBH 
Oct 22, 2012 05:50pm News Akin spokesman labels McCaskill "Bullshitsu"  Article The Sunset Provision 
Oct 21, 2012 05:00pm News Todd Akin compares Claire McCaskill to a dog  Article The Sunset Provision 

DISCUSSION
[View All
178
Previous Messages]
 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
x3
Thu, August 9, 2012 11:01:45 PM UTC0:00
I know Akin trailed the other two by a point or two against McCaskill, but I think he was the safer pick. He's been in Congress enough that he knows the issues, and if he had any skeletons somebody probably would have found them already. If the knock that the Democrats are going to use is that he's "too conservative"... I mean, that's almost nothing.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Fri, August 10, 2012 01:20:01 AM UTC0:00
Labour Dem
08/08/12 + 0.0000

The Democrats newest PaGuy!

 
LBT:8827Smart ( 1017.9734 points)
Sun, August 12, 2012 07:24:32 AM UTC0:00
Ryan34: I put this state as the most likely pick up for the GOP, even more so than Nebraska (which I know their going to win).
Deb Fischer is polling 25+ points ahead of her Dem opponent.

Todd Akin won't win by 25 points, or even half that.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
x2
Tue, August 14, 2012 02:59:31 AM UTC0:00
Pretty rough poll for McCaskill...

 
LPC:6149Dr. King Schultz ( 374.3755 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 08:49:51 AM UTC0:00
So yeah I think it's quite clear after inserting his foot into his mouth Todd Akin's chances of winning definitely dropped.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 07:02:36 PM UTC0:00
Akin's chances will drop because he's a crazy person, and his statement was just the first symptom of it we've seen in the general election race. There's a reason Democrats wanted him for an opponent.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
x3
Mon, August 20, 2012 07:43:51 PM UTC0:00
God, why does my party seem bent on throwing away US Senate seats?

 
P:130karin1492 ( 609.4522 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 08:24:02 PM UTC0:00
Akin announced on Huckabee's radio show he's not quitting, saying he's not the only person to ever suffer from "foot-in-mouth disease"

 
P:130karin1492 ( 609.4522 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 08:28:01 PM UTC0:00
Has anyone who has ever been in a situation where they announced they weren't quitting a race in the middle of a campaign ever won? That seems like a kiss of death to me.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 1064.3835 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 08:57:23 PM UTC0:00
Rumors that the NRSC is urging Akin to drop out and if he doesn't, he won't get their support. Couldn't he just get some super PAC money to compensate?

 
D:1107GavinBrown ( 1359.3580 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:03:33 PM UTC0:00
I bet the NRSC is going to try their best to coax Talent into this if they convince Akin to drop out. What are the state's rules if Akin did drop out?

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:05:03 PM UTC0:00
GavinBrown: I bet the NRSC is going to try their best to coax Talent into this if they convince Akin to drop out. What are the state's rules if Akin did drop out?

I sincerely doubt it. Assuming Akin drops out, which looks a lot less likely after the Huckabee appearance (considering he has 28 hours and counting to get out of the race), they'd almost certainly go with Brunner, who got second in the primary.

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:06:30 PM UTC0:00
Word on the streets is that Crossroads GPS is bailing on Akin as well

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 1064.3835 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:07:29 PM UTC0:00
Akin has to drop out by tomorrow at 5:00 in order to not incur a penalty. If he drops out before September 25th, he has to pay for any costs in terms of reprinting ballots. Either way, the state GOP central committee will nominate someone. I've heard that Brunner is gearing up for a potential replacement candidacy.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
x3
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:12:59 PM UTC0:00
You know, regardless of the fact that Claire McCaskill spent money on ads for Todd Akin in the Republican primary, the man still won the thing and should go ahead as their nominee. It's the way the cookie of democracy crumbles, and I'd hope the Republicans who defended the Wisconsin GOP's running of fake Democrats in recall primaries to the death would agree with that.

 
D:1107GavinBrown ( 1359.3580 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:13:12 PM UTC0:00
Its not like Steelman was that far behind Brunner though.

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:23:21 PM UTC0:00
American Crossroads and the NRSC are both pulling funding if Akin stays in the race: [Link]

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
x6
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:39:08 PM UTC0:00
God its such a shame Talent didn't survive 2006.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
x6
Mon, August 20, 2012 09:49:48 PM UTC0:00
John: American Crossroads and the NRSC are both pulling funding if Akin stays in the race

I bet if he stays in nonetheless they will change their tune after a few weeks.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
x4 x2
Mon, August 20, 2012 10:04:05 PM UTC0:00
Scott³: God its such a shame Talent didn't survive 2006.

Perhaps if he were a more Talented campaigner, he would have!

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Mon, August 20, 2012 10:21:42 PM UTC0:00
Akin says he's staying in the race and asks for money.

Ben Smith is mentioning that John ASHCROFT is a possibility. Ashcroft. Wow.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Tue, August 21, 2012 01:30:11 AM UTC0:00
Damn it Ms. Warren. This is the perfect time for you to do something stupid post haste!!!

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Tue, August 21, 2012 01:53:20 AM UTC0:00
If Ashcroft replaces Akin, my endorsement goes to McCaskill.

 
LBT:8827Smart ( 1017.9734 points)
x2
Tue, August 21, 2012 02:20:06 AM UTC0:00
He should be replaced with Brunner, who was the second choice. Steelman shouldn't be able to object as she got third in the primary anyways.

at this point though, anyone is better than Akin.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Tue, August 21, 2012 02:21:11 AM UTC0:00
Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent tells BuzzFeed that he is not running for Senate to replace Akin. He also declined to explicitly call for Akin to step aside, but backed NRSC Chair John Cornyn's cool statement that Akin make his decision quickly.
[Link]