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  MO US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Missouri > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 27, 2012 - 05:00pm
Polls Open November 06, 2012 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 06, 2012 - 07:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2013 - 12:00am
Term End January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Turnout 45.51% Total Population
ContributorGaear Grimsrud
Last ModifiedRBH December 13, 2012 01:14am
Data Sources[Link]
Description Going into this election, Claire McCaskill was considered one of the most likely Senators to lose re-election due to a move towards Republicans by Missouri voters in previous elections.

Todd Akin won the Republican primary in an upset. Akin was helped either by the intense media war between Sarah Steelman and John Brunner, or by an ad run by McCaskill during the Republican primary calling Akin "too conservative".

In the days after the primary, Akin had a lead on McCaskill in the polls. Until he had an interview with Charles Jaco on St. Louis TV. Questioned on his stance regarding abortions in the case of rape, Akin referred to "legitimate rapes" and said that the body would "shut itself down" and prevent pregnancy.

These comments led Republican leadership and SuperPACs to call on Akin to withdraw from the campaign. These groups also pull supported from Akin for much of the fall campaign.

Akin withstood these calls for the period of a month between the primary and the setting of the final ballot. During this time, McCaskill laid low, trying to not force Akin out of the race.

After the ballot was set, McCaskill and her allies displayed their monetary advantage by running ads reminding voters of Akin's comments and how they tied into his deeper record on issues.

Most public polling showed the election to be a slight McCaskill lead. But on election day, McCaskill won by over 15%, amassing the most votes of any candidate running in Missouri in that election.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/07/2006
NameClaire McCaskill Votes1,055,255 (49.58%)
Term01/03/2007 - 01/03/2013 Margin48,314 (+2.27%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 07, 2012 MO US Senate - R Primary Todd Akin
Aug 07, 2012 MO US Senate - D Primary Claire McCaskill
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.6250000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/22/2008 11/06/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Claire McCaskill 50 18 1 1
Todd Akin 10 3 4 --
Leaning Call: Claire McCaskill (76.86%)
Weighted Call: Claire McCaskill (89.88%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
03/01/2011 11/03/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) Sen. Claire McCaskill Rep. Todd Akin Jonathan Dine (W) Ted Kimzey (W) Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. (W) William Dean (W) Bernie Mowinski
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Independent Independent Independent Independent
Website [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes1,494,125 (54.81%) 1,066,159 (39.11%) 165,468 (6.07%) 15 (0.00%) 9 (0.00%) 6 (0.00%) 5 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -427,966 (-15.70%) -1,328,657 (-48.74%) -1,494,110 (-54.81%) -1,494,116 (-54.81%) -1,494,119 (-54.81%) -1,494,120 (-54.81%)
Predict Avg.50.06% 46.75% 2.90% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $0.00 3/31 $910,608.75 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (42 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.73%-- 41.21%-- 5.31%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
52.00% 5.0 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/02/12-11/03/12
48.00% 2.0 44.00% 4.0 6.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/28/12-11/03/12
51.00% 11.0 36.00% 15.0 8.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
10/30/12-10/30/12
48.60% 2.6 45.20% -- 6.20% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Kiley & Company (D) 
10/25/12-10/25/12
53.00% 1.0 39.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mason-Dixon 
10/23/12-10/25/12
45.00% -- 43.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
I Chase McFadden
R Spen
  St. Louis Post Dispatch
  Kansas City Star
R Zachary Wyatt [L]
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
R Scott³
LBT Silver Dime
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Charlie L. Bailey (W) Arnie C. Dienoff  
PartyIndependent Independent  
Website  
Certified Votes4 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,494,121 (-54.81%) -1,494,123 (-54.81%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (42 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%--  
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/02/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/28/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
10/30/12-10/30/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Kiley & Company (D) 
10/25/12-10/25/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Mason-Dixon 
10/23/12-10/25/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
11/01/2012 Todd Akin TVAd Endorsement eng Care Ad   00:01:01 RP 
11/01/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Unfit  00:00:31 RP 
10/28/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Real Words - Scary  00:00:30 RBH 
10/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Real Words - Medicare   00:00:31 RP 
10/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Real Words - Middle Class   00:00:32 RP 
10/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Real Words - Minimum Wage   00:00:32 RP 
09/27/2012 vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Wrong for Missouri   00:00:32 RP 
09/26/2012 vs Todd Akin TVAd Biography eng Truth  00:00:30 RBH 
09/25/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Issue eng Balance  00:00:31 RP 
09/25/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Calendar - Next  00:00:30 RBH 
09/14/2012 Todd Akin vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Attack eng Broken Trust  00:00:30 RP 
09/07/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Biography eng Fifty  00:00:31 RP 
08/28/2012 Todd Akin vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Attack eng Six Seconds - Six Years   00:00:30 RP 
08/28/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Mixed eng Think About Family  00:00:31 RP 
08/20/2012 Todd Akin TVAd Defend eng Forgiveness  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
08/14/2012 vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Attack eng No Dice  00:00:31 RP 
08/14/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Issue eng Stage 3   00:00:31 RP 
08/14/2012 Todd Akin vs Claire McCaskill TVAd Mixed eng Wrong Way Claire   00:00:30 RP 
08/13/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Todd Akin: Way out of Missouri's mainstream   00:00:30 RBH 
08/03/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin Radio Ad Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: Todd Akin (Radio Version)  00:01:02 RBH 
07/19/2012 Claire McCaskill vs TVAd Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: John Brunner  00:00:30 RBH 
07/19/2012 Claire McCaskill vs TVAd Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: Sarah Steelman  00:00:30 RBH 
07/19/2012 Claire McCaskill vs Todd Akin TVAd Attack eng Three of a kind, one and the same: Todd Akin   00:00:30 RBH 
05/24/2012 Claire McCaskill TVAd Issue eng Always Remember  00:00:31 RP 
10/04/2011 TVAd Attack eng ClaireAir: Why Won't Clair McCaskill Campaign With President Obama?  00:00:00 Conservative for America. 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 03, 2012 12:00pm Speech Todd Akin: Bible says government shouldn't educate children  Article RP 
Nov 01, 2012 01:00pm Strategy A GOP switch on Todd Akin?  Article RP 
Oct 23, 2012 05:20pm News Claire McCaskill Cancels Campaigning To Be With Ill Mother  Article RP 
Oct 23, 2012 05:00pm News Akin was arrested at least three times during '80s abortion protests  Article RBH 
Oct 22, 2012 05:50pm News Akin spokesman labels McCaskill "Bullshitsu"  Article The Sunset Provision 
Oct 21, 2012 05:00pm News Todd Akin compares Claire McCaskill to a dog  Article The Sunset Provision 
Oct 15, 2012 02:00pm Endorsement Duggar family to campaign with Todd Akin  Article RP 
Oct 14, 2012 02:00pm Statement Akin Claimed The Senate Version Of The NDAA Legalized Bestiality  Article RP 
Oct 12, 2012 10:15am Statement Todd Akin: No ‘Science’ Behind Evolution  Article RP 
Oct 04, 2012 12:00pm Oops Akin failed to report 10 years of Missouri state pension payments  Article RP 
Sep 28, 2012 02:05pm Speech Akin speaks about old arrest at abortion clinic  Article RP 
Sep 28, 2012 01:50pm Statement Todd Akin Suggests Employers Should Be Able To Pay Women Less  Article RP 
Sep 28, 2012 01:00pm News Akin consultant compares his fortitude to cult-leader David Koresh  Article RBH 
Sep 27, 2012 01:00pm Statement Todd Akin confident he’ll prevail over Claire McCaskill in Missouri  Article RP 
Sep 26, 2012 03:05pm General National Republicans re-open door to spending money on Akin  Article RP 
Aug 24, 2012 08:20am Perspective Let’s Not Block Akin’s Bid, Let’s Fix the System   Article Imperator 
Aug 23, 2012 12:00pm Amusing Akin camp: Ask Claire McCaskill to drop out  Article RBH 
Aug 21, 2012 11:35am Blog Entry Eleven reasons why Akin didn’t quit  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Aug 20, 2012 05:00pm Opinion Day 2 of Akingate: Karl Rove uses the pull-out method, Akin tells Hannity he's staying in.  Article Scott³ 
Aug 20, 2012 03:00pm News Akin: Seriously, I am not getting out   Article COSDem 
Aug 20, 2012 01:00pm News Brunner Preparing for Akin Dropout Scenario  Article John 
Aug 20, 2012 12:40pm Announcement National GOP pulls funding from Todd Akin’s Missouri race  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Aug 19, 2012 01:00pm Idiocy Republican Senate Nominee [Akin]: Victims Of ‘Legitimate Rape’ Don’t Get Pregnant  Article RBH 
Aug 16, 2012 02:20pm General Akin calls for end to federal lunch funds  Article RP 
Aug 09, 2012 10:55pm General Akin camp doesn’t disagree with McCaskill website  Article RP 
May 31, 2011 05:30pm News Mo. Rep. Akin voting, living at different places  Article The Sunset Provision 
Mar 19, 2011 03:00pm News Ethics Complaint Filed Against Claire McCaskill  Article DFWDem 

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