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  MO District 3 - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Missouri > MO - District 03
OfficeHouse of Representatives
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline March 30, 2004 - 05:00pm
Polls Open August 03, 2004 - 06:00am
Polls Close August 03, 2004 - 07:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2005 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2007 - 12:00pm
Turnout 17.21% Total Population
ContributorBen
Last ModifiedRBH June 24, 2009 02:45pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/05/2002
NameRichard A. Gephardt Votes122,181 (59.06%)
Term01/03/2003 - 01/03/2005 Margin41,630 (+20.12%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/02/2004
NameRuss Carnahan Votes146,894 (52.86%)
Term01/03/2005 - 01/03/2007 Margin21,472 (+7.73%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceMO - District 03 11/02/2004
MAP

Embed Code
184
KEY RACE? 9.7500000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/20/2003 08/03/2004
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Steve Stoll 10 1 1 3
Russ Carnahan 3 1 1 --
Jeff Smith 1 ------
Leaning Call: Steve Stoll (75.00%)
Weighted Call: Steve Stoll (72.90%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
04/12/2004 04/13/2004

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name St. Rep. Russ Carnahan Jeff Smith St. Sen. Steve Stoll St. Rep. Joan Barry Circuit Court Clerk Mariano Favazza Mark Smith St. Rep. Jo Ann Karll
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes24,507 (22.90%) 22,783 (21.29%) 19,372 (18.11%) 18,922 (17.68%) 9,647 (9.02%) 7,400 (6.92%) 2,667 (2.49%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -1,724 (-1.61%) -5,135 (-4.80%) -5,585 (-5.22%) -14,860 (-13.89%) -17,107 (-15.99%) -21,840 (-20.41%)
Predict Avg.15.00% 1.50% 30.00% 10.00% 7.50% 2.50% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg35.90%-- 0.00%-- 12.90%-- 5.90%-- 1.90%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) 
04/12/04-04/13/04
38.00% -- 0.00% -- 15.00% -- 8.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
IND Monsieur
D John
D Jason
  Democracy for America
D Howard Dean
Laf-W Craverguy
  Missouri Right to Life
D Blue Wizzrobe
D BenD
AM Conservative for America.
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Mike Evans Corey Mohn Michael Bram  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Uncertified Votes644 (0.60%) 590 (0.55%) 469 (0.44%)  
Margin-23,863 (-22.30%) -23,917 (-22.35%) -24,038 (-22.47%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 1.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) 
04/12/04-04/13/04
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Apr 15, 2004 12:00am Endorsement Jefferson County Women's Democratic Club Endorses Stoll  Article BenD 
Mar 25, 2004 12:00am Endorsement South City Ward Endorses Steve Stoll for Congress  Article BenD 
Mar 22, 2004 12:00am Endorsement Stoll Endorsed by American Federation of Teachers and Missouri Federation of Teachers and Related School Personnel  Article BenD 
Mar 21, 2004 12:00am Endorsement St. Louis District Council Joint Board UNITE Endorses Stoll  Article BenD 
Feb 26, 2004 12:00am Endorsement St. Louis Carpenters District Council Endorses Steve Stoll for Congress  Article BenD 
Feb 03, 2004 12:00am Press Release Stoll Posts Another Big Quarter  Article BenD 

DISCUSSION
[View All
88
Previous Messages]
 
D:245BenD ( -36.1771 points)
Fri, February 6, 2004 08:21:01 AM UTC0:00
politix: i would assume some have been done and are not public yet, if ever. Its really up to KSDK or KMOV/Post-Dispatch to do one. At this point though, I dont think they see much point in it.

 
PRB:238Mr. Techno ( -125.1277 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 04:57:17 AM UTC0:00
Russ Carnahan is pro-choice, and that will make it tough for him in the general.

 
D:45Blue Wizzrobe ( 1112.9661 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 05:32:01 AM UTC0:00
The GOP has no strong candidates left running. I don't believe this poll, though. Steve Stoll had the advantage.

 
I:490User 490 ( 1224.6385 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 05:35:52 AM UTC0:00
This poll was conducted for Carnahan, I should have mentioned that earlier.

 
PRB:238Mr. Techno ( -125.1277 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 05:36:17 AM UTC0:00
Federer has performed reasonably well against an entrenched incumbent.

 
PRB:238Mr. Techno ( -125.1277 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 05:36:54 AM UTC0:00
Oh, well, maybe Stoll is leading. Tell me earlier Val.

 
D:433the missouri kid ( 61.1274 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 05:58:54 AM UTC0:00
Federer is a running joke in St. Louis these days.

 
D:45Blue Wizzrobe ( 1112.9661 points)
Thu, April 29, 2004 06:14:17 AM UTC0:00
Gephardt is very different from Stoll. Gephardt was a national figure, and had moved to the left. Federer would not have gotten in the forties if he was facing the 1976 Gephardt.

 
D:271ArchPundit ( -13.5459 points)
Fri, April 30, 2004 12:01:52 AM UTC0:00
Federer is being abandoned by the main stream Republicans. He isn't well liked and beyond that is a kook. He has several ethical clouds over his head. The District is 60/40 and from what I hear is pretty close to 55-45 pro-choice. Any of the serious candidates won't have too much of a problem. That and Federer's numbers aren't that impressive from this round of fundraising letters.

The point of previous campaigns was to keep Gephardt around Missouri. With him gone, the Republicans won't see much use in this race.

 
I:1191davedrebes ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, May 7, 2004 12:39:40 AM UTC0:00
Here is what I wrote about this race in the St. Louis Business Journal.

[Link]

Disclaimer: My opinions have been known to change without much warning.

Also, our continuing 3rd CD coverage at Arch City Chronicle:

[Link]

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Fri, May 7, 2004 02:31:08 AM UTC0:00
Good info, Dave. Is Carnahan really sinking that bad? Any info on internal polling

 
I:1191davedrebes ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, May 14, 2004 06:20:14 AM UTC0:00
I wonder sometimes if Carnahan is "sinking that bad." It feels that way from where I'm sitting, but since most voters haven't even thought about thinking about this race yet, it's obviously way too early to say he's missed his chance. But he did miss his chance to shut this race down before it even got started. If he'd raced some real money early and secured some key endorsements, with his name, there would've been no race.

Now we got a race, and he's arguably no longer the favorite.

 
I:1191davedrebes ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, May 14, 2004 06:22:42 AM UTC0:00
Oh, also, on the polling. I don't have any inside scoop on internal polls, but I hear what everyone else hears. Carnahan has a poll that says he's got a huge lead in name recognition. Nothing more than that.

 
D:11Nats In First! ( 11.8254 points)
Fri, May 14, 2004 09:27:58 AM UTC0:00
I'd always been under the impression that it was Stoll's to lose.

 
D:45Blue Wizzrobe ( 1112.9661 points)
Fri, May 14, 2004 10:01:18 PM UTC0:00
Right. Carnahan is seen as the favorite by DC people. People in the district know better.

 
PRB:238Mr. Techno ( -125.1277 points)
Sat, May 15, 2004 01:54:31 AM UTC0:00
The people from here MO who have been posting messages about this race strike me as possibly being involved with the Stoll campaign. BTW, while Federer might not be the greatest candidate, what they said about him is untrue.

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Wed, May 26, 2004 05:48:54 PM UTC0:00
Is this primary election on a different date than the other MO primary elections for some reason?

 
D:389PaGuy ( 2537.5559 points)
Sat, July 31, 2004 09:44:48 AM UTC0:00
Whats goin on with this race?

 
I:490User 490 ( 1224.6385 points)
Sat, July 31, 2004 09:59:36 AM UTC0:00
Stoll is the frontrunner I think. Carnahan never seemed to take off. And Smith has the Dean/DailyKos type support, so we'll see if he can break their losing streak.

 
Reg:16None Entered ( 1178.9144 points)
Sat, July 31, 2004 11:22:12 AM UTC0:00
Mark or Jeff?

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Sat, July 31, 2004 02:38:18 PM UTC0:00
Check the endorsements. :)

 
Reg:16None Entered ( 1178.9144 points)
Sat, July 31, 2004 11:32:24 PM UTC0:00
Aha, thanks.

 
D:318New York Democrat ( 247.7782 points)
Sun, August 1, 2004 02:12:03 AM UTC0:00
Joan Barry is the only major female candidate, but she is pro-life on abortion, which may not help her with a more liberal primary electorate.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 191.5293 points)
Sun, August 1, 2004 04:20:09 AM UTC0:00
Stoll is the frontrunner I think. Carnahan never seemed to take off. And Smith has the Dean/DailyKos type support, so we'll see if he can break their losing streak. -Yellow

Excellent Analysis.

 
D:45Blue Wizzrobe ( 1112.9661 points)
Sun, August 1, 2004 06:37:28 AM UTC0:00
It seemed like all the Carnahan support and noise came from Washington, which was impressed by his name. I like Stoll's mustache.