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  US President - Popular Vote
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
OfficePresident
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00pm
Polls Open November 06, 2012 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 06, 2012 - 11:00pm
Term Start January 20, 2013 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2017 - 12:00pm
Turnout 41.81% Total Population
ContributorRalphie
Last Modifiedbudgeteer September 14, 2013 04:50pm
Data SourcesFEC: [Link]

CBS news
[Link]
[Link]

Note: Updated numbers from adding the certified returns as reported by the individual states. These ARE the correct numbers for all candidates.
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/04/2008
NameBarack Obama Votes69,456,897 (52.91%)
Term01/20/2009 - 01/20/2013 Margin9,522,083 (+7.25%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jan 03, 2012 US President - D Primary Barack Obama
Jan 03, 2012 US President - R Primary Mitt Romney
Jun 01, 2012 US President - CST Primary Ed Noonan
Jun 01, 2012 US President - LBT Primary Gary Johnson
Jun 05, 2012 US President - GRN Primary Jill Stein
MAP
KEY RACE? 9.3077001572 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/05/2008 11/06/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Barack Obama 32 25 3 --
Mitt Romney 13 3 ----
Leaning Call: Barack Obama (82.73%)
Weighted Call: Barack Obama (95.33%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
08/14/2009 11/04/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) President Barack Obama Gov. Mitt Romney Gov. Gary Johnson Jill Stein Rep. Virgil H. Goode, Jr. (W) Write-In Roseanne Barr
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Green Constitution Nonpartisan Peace & Freedom
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes65,915,796 (51.06%) 60,931,757 (47.20%) 1,275,917 (0.99%) 469,547 (0.36%) 122,507 (0.10%) 108,331 (0.08%) 67,394 (0.05%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -4,984,039 (-3.86%) -64,639,879 (-50.08%) -65,446,249 (-50.70%) -65,793,289 (-50.97%) -65,807,465 (-50.98%) -65,848,402 (-51.01%)
Predict Avg.49.87% 47.65% 1.14% 0.40% 0.15% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (337 from 54 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.13%-- 46.47%-- 1.27%-- 0.81%-- 0.18%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Gallup 
11/01/12-11/04/12
48.00% 2.0 49.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/02/12-11/04/12
50.00% -- 48.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
48.50% -- 46.50% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Pew Research 
10/31/12-11/03/12
50.00% 3.0 47.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/01/12-11/03/12
50.00% 1.0 47.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (Hart & McInturff) 
11/01/12-11/03/12
48.00% 1.0 47.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D Brandon
  Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund
I Ryan34
D Qbanito
  Log Cabin Republicans
I Lee Iacocca [L]
I Ross Perot [L]
  Tea Pot Party
LBT Smart
MNI Jesse Ventura [L]
LBT Silver Dime
  New Progressive Alliance
NP Noam Chomsky [L]
I Matt Gonzalez [L]
I Ralph Nader [L]
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
AENM Angry Russian
  Solidarity (US)
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Mayor Rocky Anderson Tom Hoefling (W) Rep. Ron Paul Randall Terry Richard A. Duncan Peta Lindsay None of the Above
PartyJustice America's Independent Republican Independent Independent Socialism and Liberation Independent
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes43,027 (0.03%) 40,641 (0.03%) 26,204 (0.02%) 13,105 (0.01%) 12,558 (0.01%) 7,786 (0.01%) 5,770 (0.00%)
Margin-65,872,769 (-51.03%) -65,875,155 (-51.03%) -65,889,592 (-51.04%) -65,902,691 (-51.05%) -65,903,238 (-51.05%) -65,908,010 (-51.06%) -65,910,026 (-51.06%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (337 from 54 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.66%-- 0.66%-- 0.01%-- 0.66%--
Gallup 
11/01/12-11/04/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/02/12-11/04/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Pew Research 
10/31/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
11/01/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
NBC News/Wall Street Journal (Hart & McInturff) 
11/01/12-11/03/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
  New Progressive Alliance
MFL Juan Croniqueur
J Dr. Cynic
I Ralph Nader [L]
VIEW 65 MORE CANDIDATES

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Oct 03, 2012 07:00pm Oct 03, 2012 09:00pm Debate First 2012 Presidential Debate  TX DEM 
Oct 16, 2012 07:00pm Oct 16, 2012 09:00pm Debate Second 2012 Presidential Debate  TX DEM 
Oct 22, 2012 07:10pm Oct 22, 2012 09:10pm Debate Third 2012 Presidential Debate  TX DEM 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
11/06/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Feel Good eng Key & Peele: Obama's Anger Translator - Victory  00:00:30 Dr. King Schultz 
11/02/2012 Mitt Romney TVAd Endorsement eng Mr. Burns Endorses Romney  00:00:30 Scott³ 
11/01/2012 Jill Stein TVAd Issue eng Climate Storm  00:00:31 Craverguy 
11/01/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Endorsement eng Solid  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
10/28/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Issue eng Whedon On Romney  00:02:13 Homegrown Democrat 
10/28/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Contrast eng Who Will Do More?   00:00:32 RP 
10/27/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Remember  00:00:32 RP 
10/24/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Endorsement eng He's Got it Right  00:00:34 RP 
10/23/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Endorsement eng At Stake  00:00:32 RP 
10/23/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng Determination  00:01:00 RP 
10/23/2012 Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Issue eng GARY JOHNSON Cast a vote for Peace  00:00:31 Silver Dime 
10/22/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Issue eng "You Don't Own Me" PSA  00:02:49 Homegrown Democrat 
10/18/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng Seen  00:00:31 RP 
10/15/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Issue eng Obama Pride: LGBT Americans for Obama  00:05:09 Homegrown Democrat 
10/13/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Issue eng Challenges  00:00:32 Homegrown Democrat 
10/09/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng Big Bird  00:00:30 Homegrown Democrat 
10/08/2012 Rocky Anderson vs Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Contrast eng Rocky Anderson vs Gary Johnson on government protection  00:02:36 Homegrown Democrat 
10/08/2012 vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Issue eng Thank You, Log Cabin Republicans!  00:01:23 Homegrown Democrat 
10/05/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Issue eng Why Obama Now  00:03:44 Homegrown Democrat 
10/04/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Trust  00:00:33 RP 
10/02/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Already Has  00:00:30 RP 
10/02/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Mandatory  00:00:32 RP 
09/28/2012 vs Barack Obama Web Only Ad Issue eng Perilous Times  00:09:17 Homegrown Democrat 
09/27/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng My Job  00:00:33 RP 
09/27/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Mixed eng Wake the F**K Up (NSFW)   00:03:41 RP 
09/26/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Issue eng Table  00:02:03 RP 
09/26/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Mixed eng Too Many Americans   00:01:01 RP 
09/23/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng No Taxes  00:00:30 RP 
09/19/2012 vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Doors  00:00:32 RP 
09/19/2012 vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Attack eng Mitt Romney: Outside the Circle   00:02:09 RP 
09/19/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Issue eng War on Coal  00:00:30 RP 
09/19/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Issue eng Way of Life  00:00:30 RP 
09/18/2012 Barack Obama Radio Ad Feel Good eng Gotta  00:01:01 RP 
09/17/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Dear Daughter   00:00:30 RP 
09/15/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Defend eng The Question  00:01:02 RP 
09/06/2012 vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng The Breakup  00:00:31 RP 
09/03/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Heavy Load  00:00:31 RP 
08/30/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Attack eng Paul Ryan: Wrong for the Middle Class   00:02:09 RP 
08/30/2012 vs Barack Obama Web Only Ad Attack eng The Poster  00:01:01 RP 
08/27/2012 vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Bow to Nobody: Special Operations for America  00:00:34 Homegrown Democrat 
08/26/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Attack eng Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan: The Do-Over - ConventionReinvention.com  00:01:44 Homegrown Democrat 
08/23/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Endorsement eng Clear Choice  00:00:33 RP 
08/20/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Richmond Times-Dispatch On Welfare Reform   00:00:30 RP 
08/17/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Contrast eng Facts  00:00:33 RP 
08/14/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng Get Real  00:00:33 RP 
08/14/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Issue eng Paid In  00:00:30 Homegrown Democrat 
08/11/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Issue eng Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan: Back to the Failed Top-Down Policies  00:01:35 Homegrown Democrat 
08/10/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng America Deserves Better   00:00:34 RP 
08/10/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Defend eng Blatant  00:00:31 RP 
08/10/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng Romney Would Knock the Wind Out of Iowa's Economy   00:00:30 RP 
08/09/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Be Not Afraid   00:00:31 RP 
08/09/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Son of Boss  00:00:30 RP 
08/08/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Defend eng Dubious  00:00:35 RP 
08/07/2012 Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Mixed eng GARY JOHNSON You ARE Libertarian  00:01:22 Silver Dime 
08/07/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Right Choice   00:00:30 RP 
08/07/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Understands  00:01:03 RP 
08/05/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Issue eng Cherished Relationship  00:00:30 RP 
08/05/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng It's Just Not Getting Better   00:00:30 RP 
08/04/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng Important  00:00:31 RP 
08/02/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Contrast eng Balanced  00:00:33 RP 
08/02/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Focus  00:00:30 RP 
08/02/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Stretch  00:00:31 RP 
08/01/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Dream  00:00:30 RP 
08/01/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Biography eng Time For A Change   00:00:54 RP 
07/31/2012 Mitt Romney TVAd Biography eng Believe In Our Future  00:01:02 RP 
07/31/2012 Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney TVAd Contrast eng Worried  00:00:32 RP 
07/30/2012 vs Barack Obama Web Only Ad Attack eng FightBigotry.com: Obama's disturbing pattern of tacitly defending black racism  00:02:01 Homegrown Democrat 
07/30/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Mixed eng The Right Kind of Leadership   00:00:32 RP 
07/30/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama Web Only Ad Attack eng These Hands: Ohio   00:01:56 RP 
07/27/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Mixed eng I Believe  00:00:33 RP 
07/26/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng It Worked  00:00:56 RP 
07/17/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Attack eng Even Republicans Agree: Mitt Romney's Hiding Something   00:01:17 RP 
07/17/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Makes You Wonder  00:00:32 Homegrown Democrat 
07/16/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Issue eng An Indecent Proposal from Sarah Silverman [NSFW]  00:01:37 Homegrown Democrat 
07/16/2012 Mitt Romney Web Only Ad Attack eng Political Payoffs And Middle Class Layoffs  00:00:35 Homegrown Democrat 
07/15/2012 Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Hope and Change?  00:00:29 Monsieur 
07/14/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Firms  00:00:33 karin1492 
07/13/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng What Happened?  00:00:30 RP 
07/13/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Your Turn   00:00:32 RP 
07/12/2012 Mitt Romney vs Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng No Evidence  00:00:32 RP 
07/10/2012 Gary Johnson Issue Video Issue eng GARY JOHNSON will END the IRS  00:01:32 Silver Dime 
07/02/2012 Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Issue eng GARY JOHNSON Ask Any Country That's Tried Govt. Healthcare  00:01:10 Silver Dime 
06/29/2012 Mitt Romney TVAd Attack eng Shame On You  00:00:30 Homegrown Democrat 
06/06/2012 Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Contrast eng GARY JOHNSON Be Libertarian With Me  00:02:14 Silver Dime 
05/23/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Issue eng President Obama and the Fight for LGBT Rights  00:05:03 Homegrown Democrat 
05/21/2012 Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Issue eng Gary Johnson Peace is cheaper  00:02:02 Silver Dime 
05/15/2012 Mitt Romney TVAd Issue eng A Few of the 23 Million   00:03:59 RP 
05/15/2012 Gary Johnson Web Only Ad Mixed eng Gary Johnson: This Is Your Freedom  00:00:00 Jason 
05/15/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Attack eng Heads or Tails  00:00:32 RP 
05/10/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Issue eng Mitt Romney: Backwards on Equality  00:01:40 Homegrown Democrat 
05/07/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Biography eng Go  00:01:02 RP 
05/01/2012 Barack Obama TVAd Mixed eng Swiss Bank Account  00:00:30 Homegrown Democrat 
04/27/2012 Barack Obama Web Only Ad Contrast eng One Chance  00:01:30 -- 
04/26/2012 TVAd Attack eng Cool  00:00:45 Homegrown Democrat 
03/21/2012 Web Only Ad Attack eng Mitt Romney: Some Things You Can't Shake Off   00:00:48 Homegrown Democrat 
03/21/2012 Web Only Ad Attack eng Romney: The Etch A Sketch Candidate  00:01:01 Homegrown Democrat 
03/13/2012 Web Only Ad Issue eng War On Women: Extended Cut   00:01:38 Homegrown Democrat 
02/16/2012 Web Only Ad Attack eng The REAL Mitt On The Road  00:00:36 Homegrown Democrat 
01/27/2012 Rocky Anderson Web Only Ad Issue eng End Corruption  00:00:00 Craverguy 
01/03/2012 TVAd Attack eng Mitt Romney: Job Creator?   00:00:31 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Feb 18, 2014 06:00pm Poll Poll: Only 79% of Obama voters would vote for him again  Article Scott³ 
Nov 19, 2013 01:00am Poll President Romney? Yes, if the election were held today  Article Scott³ 
Jun 14, 2013 08:00am News Paul Ryan explains GOP’s 2012 loss  Article Brandon 
Dec 24, 2012 01:00pm News Romney campaign caught off guard by fact that Obama staffers worked  Article TX DEM 
Nov 26, 2012 01:55am Blog Entry Mitt Romney '47 percent watch': 47.47!  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Nov 15, 2012 07:00pm Analysis Gay Vote Proved a Boon for Obama  Article Homegrown Democrat 

DISCUSSION
[View All
924
Previous Messages]
 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Tue, June 12, 2012 10:34:13 PM UTC0:00
...
150 days out: leaving polls aside, what is your gut feeling?
Obama wins 24 (75%)
Romney wins 8 (25%)
32 Votes Cast
View User Votes
Polls Close June 19, 2012 12:00am

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
x3
Tue, June 12, 2012 10:55:53 PM UTC0:00
To be honest, I could see it going either way depending on what happens between now and November. It's not exactly a foregone conclusion for either. I think the most likely result right now is an Obama victory by a narrower margin (both in the popular vote and in the electoral college) than in 2008.

 
AM:7114Conservative for America. ( 76.1380 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 12:40:23 AM UTC0:00
If it were today Obama would win, but I think that by election day that won't be the case.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 01:33:44 AM UTC0:00
Actually my optimism is growing that Romney could pull this off.

Virtually every LV poll is showing a dead heat. While every RV poll is showing Obama up by a few points. This is still very winnable. And in fact could start to get ugly for Obama.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 02:03:42 AM UTC0:00
Scott³: Virtually every LV poll is showing a dead heat. While every RV poll is showing Obama up by a few points.

Presidents Dukakis and Perot think your analysis is spot on! It's a long wait until September when polls start getting more meaningful.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 02:09:57 AM UTC0:00
I would be a lot more willing to give the edge to Romney if states like North Carolina and Virginia were taken off the table by now. That they're competitive at all is troublesome for Romney, whether he's ahead there or not. It's unreasonable to expect to win the election by scraping by with the bare minimum in every swing state.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 02:22:05 AM UTC0:00
Hell, even Bush carried Florida in 2004 by a solid 5 points or so.

 
LBT:6309Silver Dime ( 94.8693 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 03:57:04 AM UTC0:00
Gary Johnson...

Kidding. I wish.

Seriously, I see Obama winning. But it's going to be close. Anyone saying this will be a landslide on either side is kidding themselves.

Romney is just too unlikable and has way too poor of a record. I also find it too hard to believe that a pretty likable war hero like John McCain will lose to Obama but a flipflopping and socially awkward businessman will. If the economic pickup stays relativley flat or even gets worse I could see Romney pick up some more steam and maybe pull it off in the end.

Still, President Romney seems too much of a fantasy for me.


My Prediction that Obama will win within a 4 point margin against Romney.

Here in Mass., I predict Scott Brown will beat Liz Warren by 3 points.

Those are 2 races I would be really willing to put dollars and cents on at the moment.

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 04:00:04 AM UTC0:00
Exactly, Jason. The states that are competitive now are all Bush states from 2004. Romney is going to have to flip a few Kerry states to win--being that Bush 04 states like NV, NM, and to a lesser degree CO and VA are off the table.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
x2
Wed, June 13, 2012 04:31:39 AM UTC0:00
CO is definitely not off the table.

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 04:44:35 AM UTC0:00
Hence, I said to a lesser degree. The uphill fight in CO is much more Romney than Obama's.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 05:01:57 AM UTC0:00
I would still put Florida and Nevada ahead of Colorado for Romney, if only because the latter two are still ground zero for the housing bubble.

None of them are off the table, obviously.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 05:22:09 AM UTC0:00
former two*

 
AM:7114Conservative for America. ( 76.1380 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 06:12:23 AM UTC0:00
North Carolina and Indiana are the two most winnable states for Romney that Obama carried in '08, followed by Florida and Nevada, and then Colorado.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 06:19:05 AM UTC0:00
Colorado will have a initiative on the ballot to decriminalize marijuana. And very possibly one to repeal the gay marriage ban.

It'll bring out the loonies but like Randy said a few months back it'll also bring out college students.

Colorado also has a sizable Mormon population.

The state's pretty much a wild card.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Wed, June 13, 2012 08:34:26 AM UTC0:00
Although it's most certainly not off the table, I'm pretty sure Nevada won't be voting for Romney.

If anything, in a neutral cycle, I have a feeling it's going to be our generation's 1988-2004 Wisconsin...perpetually labeled a 'swing state' by the media and supposedly threatening to indeed go either way, but almost always (or in 88-04 WI's case, always) going for the Democrats by some hilariously small margin.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 06:21:31 AM UTC0:00
If it perpetually goes to the winner by a hilariously small margin, it is a swing state, even if the winner tends to be the same party every time.

That's what makes a swing state: the margin is so small that it could conceivably swing either way.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
x3
Thu, June 14, 2012 06:23:37 AM UTC0:00
Likelihood of a swing is what makes a state a swing state.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 08:27:05 AM UTC0:00
The fact that a state's election results tend to go a particular way doesn't mean it was unlikely that the results could have gone the other way. If the margin of victory is within a few hundred votes out of a million or so cast every single time, then there was obviously every possibility that the result could have been flipped if even one factor had been changed.

In other words: when you flip a coin, there's a 50/50 chance it will turn up heads. If you flip the coin 10 times in a row and it comes up heads every time, that doesn't mean that it was unlikely to turn up tails.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 08:32:23 AM UTC0:00
It's not a random chance, it's people who usually vote the same way all the time because of the views they hold.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 08:47:45 AM UTC0:00
But, of course, it doesn't matter how people usually would vote if the parties don't necessarily make a sufficient investment in bringing them to the polls, or if new people move into the state or old people move out.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 10:22:49 AM UTC0:00
Yeah, except the thing with Wisconsin (the example I cited) was that it always seemed reasonably likely to people (living in Wisconsin, anyway) that the state would vote Democratic for President in the years I mentioned, but just that it was going to be by a small margin...if that makes any sense.

I'm basically expounding on what Picimpalious said in his second post: Many people assumed the votes would be close, but that the Democrats would simply get a small number more than the Republicans because there was just a small plurality that held views in line with Democratic Presidential candidates present every time.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 01:34:14 PM UTC0:00
Good discussion. Nate Silver addressed this issue about a month ago and decided to separate the adjectives 'swing' and 'elastic.'

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 08:37:45 PM UTC0:00
Now even the RV polls are beginning to show this within a point or two.

 
R:787Barack O-blame-a ( 80.6213 points)
Thu, June 14, 2012 10:52:38 PM UTC0:00
I'm pondering something. I wonder if more people are paying attention now than usual because of how bad it is in terms of the economy. Liken it to a car or your health. If everything is fine, you don't really pay much attention, but when something goes wrong, you definitely do start to pay attention more.