Palin might indeed the Republican McGovern if nominated. Romney seems the safest bet right now.

Republican primaries are heavily winner-takes-all.. so Palin can win all the delegates with 30% in some states.. but if she loses 31%-30%, she gets nothing. One thing to note about McGovern is that he didn't cause a huge loss for Dems in Congressional races.. Because none of them acknowledged his existence. But at the same time, I don't think the 12% undecided for Obama/Palin would split 50/50 or anything. Sorta like how Clinton/Dole polling showed a wider margin than the final MOV.

But at the same time, I don't think the 12% undecided for Obama/Palin would split 50/50 or anything. Sorta like how Clinton/Dole polling showed a wider margin than the final MOV. I think alot of people are unwilling to admit to pollsters that they would vote for Palin. Note the difference between the live interviewer NBC poll and the automated PPP poll - I think the automated polls are better.

I don't believe in a bradley effect for any reason. People aren't afraid to let you know their politics.

I generally agree. The 2008 Presidential polls were not thwarted by a Bradley effect, nor did the silent majority pass Prop 19. Although there is an argument to be made for gay marriage referenda.

Yeah, I tend to think people who support Palin would actually relish the opportunity to rub it in an NBC pollster's face.

How was Clinton polling in Dec 94 against possible Republican nominees? About the same as Obama is now?

Reuters, 12/31/1994 Nearly half of all Americans think President Clinton shouldn't seek re-election, according to a Newsweek poll released yesterday. (...) While 47 percent polled said Clinton should bow out of the running in two years, 44 percent felt he should seek another term. (...) The poll showed that if the election were held today, both retired Gen. Colin Powell - who has not revealed his political party leanings - and incoming Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole , a Republican, could beat Clinton . They would prevail 48 percent to 34 percent, and 48 percent to 38 percent, respectively.

Nice poll from Zogby!!!

Why has Zogby not just completely given up?

????????????????

Every time Zogby releases an Internet-based "Interactive" poll, they take their credibility down further.

I took an interactive poll of my office just now, and I can assure you Christie has virtually zero name recognition. There is no way Zogby's figures here are accurate.

What a BS poll. Where's RON PAUL? Why does PPP fear RON PAUL?

Lets see how much coverage this poll gets on FNC channel. Every time a Rasmussen poll shows a drop it's the top story on half of their evening shows. Will have to wait and see if their own outfit gets the same treatment. If the political climate stays similar to what it is now and the economy continues to improve on the margins (or better) and without any unexpected scandals, this is a tough race to win against a President with higher overall job approvals than any major individual issue being tested and higher horse race numbers than they have any right to be. Obama's polling numbers are quite odd. I don't quite get it yet, but something is keeping him up higher than anyone would have guessed all things considered.

No matter the results of this latest poll, I'd rather Obama re-elected than Huckabee be the GOP nominee.

Not a fan of the Huckster?

I agree with Political Observer; better Obama than Huckabee.

The PPP poll for February '11 included a hypothetical matchup between Bush II and Obama. I have added it above. Apparently the disastrous presidency we have now is getting Americans to appreciate the last President more and more.

Obama's approval rating in that poll is +3 while Bush's is -8.

If Obama's presidency is disastrous yet still more people would vote for him than Bush, what does that say about how people view Bush? I guess leaving the country worse off than he found it hasn't escaped most people's memories.

If Obama was so disastrous he wouldnt be leading ANY Republican.

About half the people in this country are Democrats. About half of them are Republicans. Obama's eh-inspiring presidency has predictably done nothing to change that established convention.

I think Bush will probably surpass Obama in popularity in Obama's sixth year.