Ginny has an excellent shot here.

Tee hee.

This poll is a Democratic poll, it should be noted. I found it on Roll Call and I couldn't find another link for it. Also, I don't know the margin of error, if anyone cares, because Roll Call didn't mention it. I'm not entirely sure why the Democrats released this. Fitzpatrick has more name recognition than Schader, Roll Call says, according to the poll, but is only known by a minority. The poll also had Kerry leading by 4 points in the district and showed that 54% apparently support abortion rights.

A Democratic poll has Kerry leading by four points in this district? What the **** are they thinking? Good God...Kerry is in much worse shape than I thought...

Ginny Schrader continues to tear it up in PA. Amazing results for her a (D) poll. 12 points behind......

My guess, given the Democratic polling outfit, is that it's probably skewed about six points in favor of the Democrats...that would be in keeping with the poll in PA showing Bush 1 point ahead. If Bush is one point ahead, then he's marginally ahead in the suburban counties...

Not necessarily - Bush could be doing better in West PA. Rendell won by 8 and by about 35 in Montgomery, 30 in Bucks, 25 in Delaware, and 10-15 in Chester, if you recall. Schrader's Mydd $ will push her over the top!

I was under the impression that these partisan polls are usually just as accurate as any other poll except the only ones we see, the ones that are released, are the ones that show that party's candidate doing well. So, if that is true, then I don't really see why this poll was released. I guess they like that Fitzpatrick is below 50%, but he isn't the incumbent so that doesn't really matter. However, I also wouldn't see how there is skewing for the presidential race since the reason this poll was released was likely for the Schrader campaign, not because of the presidential results.

Well, 2002 isn't a good model to use because those numbers reflect a statewide Democratic victory of 300,000. The present Gallup poll indicates a 50,000 Bush majority. Given that economic worries seem to be holding Bush back in Pennsylvania (he trails on that question alone), my best guess is that we are seeing a 1980's rather than 1990's Pennsylvania Presidential contest. In other words, I expect Bush to do better in Eastern PA than he did in 2000, and Kerry perhaps better in Western PA than the Dem. nominee in 2000...

njdem, Simple...Schrader is trying to build confidence in her campaign by giving the impression that she can ride Kerry's supposed coattails...that's why she mentioned his numbers in the first place...

I don't think that makes sense. THe 1980s PA doesn't exist anymore. People do not revert to old forms of voting behavior for no reason. The trends that moved eastern PA toward Gore in 2000 haven't ended. And my citation of Rendell's numbers represents that suburban counties do not always follow the state pattern. Remember when Bob Casey lost Montgomery in 1990?

I think you're wrong Beatrix, and it has to do with the Pennsylvania economy... In 2000, social issues dominated, and the natural tendency was eastern PA to go for the most liberal candidate and western PA for the more conservative candidate. In 2004, the economy and terrorism will dominate. That plays to Bush's strength, given the rather healthy economy in southeastern PA and the location of Philadelphia, and probably not to his benefit in southwestern PA.

Holmes, That makes sense. I still don't think it was probably the best idea to release the poll. Everyone knew that the district would be close, if not Democratic leaning. But, not everyone knew that Fitzpatrick would, after only a month or so in the race, be leading by 12 points and be so close to a majority already without a majority knowing who he is.

Schrader isn't exactly the most experienced candidate...if Democrats want to pick up a GOP-held seat, then they should concentrate on the district just to the north of this, PA-15. PA-8 is the least likely of the three open seats to go Democratic...any competent Republican would win this seat...

One think that you dont realize NJDem is that Fitzpatrick is a county commishioner of Bucks County, which 99% of this district is.

There has been definite movement away from national Republicans in eastern PA, I don't see how you can ignore it.

I do realize that. However, the poll apparently showed that most people in the district don't know who he is, even though he is more well-known that Schrader.

"movement away from national Republicans..." That's why Tom Ridge, Rick Santorum, Arlen Specter, and Jim Greenwood won this district...

Ridge, Specter, and Greenwood aren't entirely "national republicans" because they are all considerably more moderates than the national party. Santorum won because he was facing Klink who was just as conservative on cultural issues.

national = Presidential, I meant

Sorry, it turns out that Roll Call was slightly wrong and that Schrader actually has only 30%. Addition information includes that in a generic ballot, the Democrats leads 42-41. When given a "biographical paragraph" on both candidates (you can find them on the link to follow) Schrader leads 48-45. They also make a big deal about how the district is mostly pro-choice so that shows that, as I assumed, Schrader will likely focus heavily on Fitzpatrick's conservative position on that issue. http://www.politicspa.com/temp/PA-08_1-PAGE_TREND_SUMMARY.pdf

"They also make a big deal about how the district is mostly pro-choice so that shows that, as I assumed, Schrader will likely focus heavily on Fitzpatrick's conservative position on that issue." And that's all she has going for her.