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  WI US Senate - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Wisconsin > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2012 - 12:00pm
Polls Open August 14, 2012 - 07:00am
Polls Close August 14, 2012 - 08:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2013 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Turnout 3.27% Total Population
ContributorAndy
Last ModifiedJohn November 16, 2012 05:08pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/07/2006
NameHerb Kohl Votes1,439,214 (67.31%)
Term01/03/2007 - 01/03/2013 Margin808,915 (+37.83%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2012
NameTammy Baldwin Votes1,547,104 (51.41%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin166,978 (+5.55%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceWI US Senate 11/06/2012
MAP
KEY RACE? 1.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/14/2011 08/14/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Tammy Baldwin --2 1 19
Leaning Call: Tammy Baldwin (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Tammy Baldwin (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
05/19/2011 08/14/2011

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. Tammy Baldwin (W) Scattering  
PartyDemocratic Democratic  
Website [Website]  
Certified Votes185,265 (99.77%) 424 (0.23%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -184,841 (-99.54%)  
Predict Avg.100.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (4 from 2 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.16%-- 0.00%--  
Public Policy Polling (D) 
08/12/11-08/14/11
48.00% 18.0 0.00% --
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R) 
07/12/11-07/13/11
41.00% -- 0.00% --
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R) 
07/12/11-07/13/11
46.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
05/19/11-05/22/11
30.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D Democratic Party Democratic Party
D Herb Kohl [L]
  AFL-CIO of Wisconsin
D Tom Barrett [L]
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
07/09/2012 Tammy Baldwin TVAd Biography eng Rock  00:00:32 Homegrown Democrat 
06/21/2012 Tammy Baldwin TVAd Issue eng Paper  00:00:32 Homegrown Democrat 
09/06/2011 Tammy Baldwin Web Only Ad Mixed eng A Progressive Fighter for Wisconsin   00:02:56 Homegrown Democrat 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jan 11, 2012 12:00pm Endorsement Tammy Baldwin endorsed by Herb Kohl in Wisconsin Senate race  Article Incurious Mongrul 
Oct 19, 2011 09:15am Endorsement Russ Feingold Endorses Tammy Baldwin In 2012 Senate Race   Article Homegrown Democrat 
Sep 15, 2011 12:00pm Announcement Exclusive: Rep. Kind says no to Senate run  Article TX DEM 
Sep 06, 2011 01:30am Announcement Tammy Baldwin Announces Senate Run  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Aug 19, 2011 08:00am Announcement Russ Feingold says he won't run in 2012  Article Imperator 
Jul 13, 2011 05:35pm General Tammy Baldwin Has $1.1 Million in Bank for Senate Bid  Article COSDem 

DISCUSSION
[View All
55
Previous Messages]
 
D:8059Joshua L. ( 0.0000 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 12:26:10 AM UTC0:00
I agree with you Howie - I like Russ, but we need someone new here.

 
D:1658Homegrown Democrat ( 758.3651 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 05:12:26 AM UTC0:00
Hrmm...
Regardless of who you support, is Wisconsin ready to elect an openly LGBT person in a statewide race?
Yes 13 (68.42%)
No 3 (15.78%)
This poll is anti-semitic! 3 (15.78%)
Maybe/Unsure 0 (0%)
Other (feel free to explain) 0 (0%)
19 Votes Cast
Polls Close May 22, 2011 12:00am

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 05:16:01 AM UTC0:00
In 2012 I think so. 2010 no.

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 05:20:07 AM UTC0:00
It would likely be easierwoman for a gay to win statewide as opposed to a gay man.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 05:27:11 AM UTC0:00
Agreed. Kate Brown.

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 05:36:58 AM UTC0:00
That so did not post correctly, but you knew what I meant ;)

 
D:1658Homegrown Democrat ( 758.3651 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 05:44:56 AM UTC0:00
The poll is more lopsided than I was expecting so far. :D (That's a good thing.)

I tend to agree with Pimp though. I don't think we'll see both Baldwin and Feingold run. It will be one or the other, but I'd gladly and fully support either of them.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 06:35:13 AM UTC0:00
So I naturally wonder, "which one's the gay guy?" I'm guessing some of you wish it was Ron Kid, but that its actually Kevin Conroy. Now I'll actually read the comments...

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 07:33:25 AM UTC0:00
It's actually Baldwin, except for the "guy" bit.

 
D:1414Forwardista ( 171.5051 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 08:08:19 AM UTC0:00
Keep that WI seat gay! Baldwin for Senate!

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 08:17:02 AM UTC0:00
I predict Feingold will not run.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 11:22:44 AM UTC0:00
I think it's ready as well. There's obviously going to be some opposition on the right. However, there's also going to be (ala the California gay marriage initiative) some opposition from Wisconsin's black population that will coming out heavily to vote for Obama. Will Baldwin underperform in Gwen Moore's district?

 
D:1658Homegrown Democrat ( 758.3651 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 11:53:53 AM UTC0:00
J.R.: some opposition from Wisconsin's black population

Surely not all 5 of them, though

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 11:59:17 AM UTC0:00
Hmm... I just figured Wisconsin had black people because they have a black Congressman. According to wikipedia Wisconsin is only 6% black, so you're probably right. It won't be much of an issue.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Mon, May 16, 2011 01:47:55 PM UTC0:00
Although the same wikipedia article states that California's black population is only 0.6% larger (of the state as a whole) than Wisconsin's so if black voters can make a difference in California on a gay marriage vote they can certainly make a difference in a state that is not as reliably Democratic as California.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, May 17, 2011 05:23:21 AM UTC0:00
Milwaukee, the largest city in Wisconsin (population around 600,000-650,000 people, depending on how much Census "undercounting" you're factoring in), is 38% black, and Gwen Moore's district is 33% black. It could very well make a difference in that district.

Then again, I would not be able to imagine a substantial number of black voters in Milwaukee voting for Paul Ryan or another Republican along those lines, but that may just be home-area blinders based on my experiences in the area. I think they'd be more likely to just stay home if they cared that much instead of voting Republican.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Tue, May 17, 2011 09:31:35 AM UTC0:00
Black voters will not be staying home in 2012.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Tue, May 17, 2011 09:44:41 AM UTC0:00
I think you guys are overthinking this. Even if black voters do have a problem voting to legalize gay marriage, I haven't seen any data suggesting they have trouble voting to elect gay candidates.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, May 17, 2011 10:32:05 AM UTC0:00
J.R.: Black voters will not be staying home in 2012.

You're right, and I think Craverguy's right, too. I don't think otherwise solidly Democratic voters of any race would really care all that much about Tammy Baldwin's sexuality.

 
D:1658Homegrown Democrat ( 758.3651 points)
Tue, May 17, 2011 09:18:34 PM UTC0:00
Barrett's out.

[Link]

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Wed, May 18, 2011 12:18:19 AM UTC0:00
Good. Now we don't run the risk of sitting through yet another campaign where Barrett's only response to attack ads slamming him is a smiling, friendly face talking about himself.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Sat, May 28, 2011 12:32:58 AM UTC0:00
Clearly, Feingold is underperforming here. 70% is what he got in '92, before he built name recognition and a record in the Senate. The party should recruit other prospects.

 
D:1658Homegrown Democrat ( 758.3651 points)
Fri, August 19, 2011 10:02:28 PM UTC0:00
With Feingold out, I'm putting my money on Baldwin.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Sat, August 20, 2011 03:45:03 AM UTC0:00
Moore and Falk would be disastrous as general election nominees, although neither of them have a chance at winning the primary, and I doubt either of them will run. I have no idea who Kevin Conroy is, and if it comes down to Baldwin versus Kind, I'd support Kind.

 
D:1414Forwardista ( 171.5051 points)
Sat, August 20, 2011 05:23:23 AM UTC0:00
Really? Kind is a compromising free-trader. Is that your thing?

I guess I understand the electability thing, but the Democratic ticket in Wisconsin is going to follow the Obamaessiah to either the promised land or to wonder in the dessert. Regardless of what happens, I'd rather have Tammy on the ticket.