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  AR US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arkansas > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 01, 2010 - 12:00am
Polls Open November 02, 2010 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 02, 2010 - 06:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2011 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2017 - 12:00pm
Turnout 26.75% Total Population
ContributorJ.R.
Last ModifiedImperator December 04, 2010 06:41pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/02/2004
NameBlanche Lincoln Votes580,973 (55.90%)
Term01/03/2005 - 01/03/2011 Margin122,937 (+11.83%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
May 18, 2010 AR US Senate - D Primary Blanche Lincoln
May 18, 2010 AR US Senate - R Primary John Boozman
Jun 08, 2010 AR US Senate - D Runoff Blanche Lincoln
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 8.6000003815 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/24/2008 11/02/2010
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
John Boozman 11 5 14 30
Blanche Lincoln 2 2 ----
Leaning Call: John Boozman (96.83%)
Weighted Call: John Boozman (99.91%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
02/01/2010 10/28/2010

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. John Boozman (I) Sen. Blanche Lincoln Trevor Drown John Gray Write-In  
PartyRepublican Democratic Independent Green Nonpartisan  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Certified Votes451,618 (57.90%) 288,156 (36.95%) 25,234 (3.24%) 14,430 (1.85%) 519 (0.07%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -163,462 (-20.96%) -426,384 (-54.67%) -437,188 (-56.05%) -451,099 (-57.84%)  
Predict Avg.55.51% 42.84% 0.47% 0.66% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 3/31 $562,645.50 3/31 $4,342,859.73 $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (24 from 10 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg50.57%-- 39.06%-- 2.25%-- 2.20%-- 0.00%--  
Rasmussen Reports 
10/28/10-10/28/10
55.00% -- 36.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN) 
10/15/10-10/19/10
55.00% -- 41.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Talk Business 
10/14/10-10/14/10
49.00% 7.0 36.00% 7.0 4.00% 1.0 4.00% 2.0 0.00% --
ccAdvertising (R) 
10/11/10-10/11/10
51.71% -- 37.18% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Rasmussen Reports 
09/30/10-09/30/10
55.00% 10.0 37.00% 10.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Ipsos 
09/17/10-09/19/10
53.00% -- 39.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Maryland Republican
D D.C. Morrison [L]
R ...
D Sarnstrom
D Brandon
D DFWDem
LBT Jed Ziggler
DL Some say...
SWP Otis Gough
IndP 6921
G Guy
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Nov 30, 2009 07:00pm Nov 30, 2009 09:00pm Debate Drew Pritt - Kim Hendren Debate  Homegrown Democrat 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 26, 2010 10:00pm Statement Blanche Lincoln: Blame Bill Halter  Article Jason 
Oct 16, 2010 06:00pm Profile Blanche Lincoln in Lonely Uphill Race in Arkansas  Article COSDem 
Oct 16, 2010 12:00pm Opinion Here’s your independent voice  Article Craverguy 
Jul 20, 2010 06:00am Blog Entry Arkansas Senate Race All But Over  Article Jason 
Jan 21, 2010 12:05pm Blog Entry AR Sen moved to Lean Takeover   Article Eddie 
Sep 29, 2009 07:00pm Poll Election 2010: Arkansas Senate Race  Article Imperator 

DISCUSSION
[View All
202
Previous Messages]
 
R:7269CalvinCoolidge ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, May 4, 2010 06:57:17 AM UTC0:00
yeah, cuz there's a huge difference between losing by 28 and losing by 25

 
D:1414Forwardista ( 171.5051 points)
Tue, May 4, 2010 07:08:31 AM UTC0:00
It was kind of a joke, you know how people always point to the moderate candidate and say, "That person is more electable, you should discard your beliefs and vote for them because they are electable?" But in this race, the person who is considered more to the left is polling better.

Of course, barring a minor miracle, I'm thinking Arkansas is a lost cause regardless of the nominee...

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Tue, May 4, 2010 07:10:48 AM UTC0:00
Forwardista: Well Halter is polling much better than Lincoln, at the moment at least, so I expected people concerned about electability to rally behind Halter...right?

If decency were not an issue in the Democratic Party, they'd give this primary to Halter and then have Halter and Beebe switch races.

 
R:728SC-Conservative ( 110.4913 points)
Sun, May 23, 2010 07:22:23 AM UTC0:00
I know the Dem numbers will improve after the runoff but this lead is insurmountable.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Sun, May 23, 2010 09:10:45 AM UTC0:00
This is basically a question as to whom the Democrats want to lose with. In that respect, they may as well oust the corporate incumbent in favor of a candidate who appeals to voter anger.

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Sun, May 23, 2010 03:06:30 PM UTC0:00
I think they'll end up going with Halter, but I think that Lincoln's the better choice here-she's scandal-free, she's much more likable, and she likely has developed a more natural trust with the voters of the state that will increase her numbers.

That said, this race is most definitely a lost cause. I don't see the Democrat going below 30%, but at this point, is 40% an impossible goal?

 
D:7388Marcus Alexander ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, June 8, 2010 08:21:41 PM UTC0:00
I'm endorsing Boozman here.

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Wed, June 9, 2010 06:59:04 AM UTC0:00
Kinda weird Lincoln defeated a Boozeman for this seat only to lose it to another one.

 
D:38DFWDem ( 534.9620 points)
Wed, June 9, 2010 07:04:56 AM UTC0:00
The much less politically astute one at that.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Tue, July 20, 2010 11:48:12 PM UTC0:00
Sad when the incumbent has to release an internal poll showing her down "only" 9 points.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Tue, July 20, 2010 11:55:20 PM UTC0:00
Even Rick Santorum was able to hit 40%. I have my doubts about Blanche even achieving that.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, July 21, 2010 12:05:31 AM UTC0:00
Lincoln deserves to get blown out on election day.

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Wed, July 21, 2010 12:56:21 AM UTC0:00
only Sharon Priest can save Blanche now

 
D:45Blue Wizzrobe ( 1112.9661 points)
Wed, July 21, 2010 01:09:14 AM UTC0:00
What kind of partisan firm (for your party) would put out a poll showing you that far behind?

Jumonville 84,
Lambert Lincoln 16

 
I:681excelsior ( 1819.1344 points)
Thu, August 19, 2010 10:58:33 PM UTC0:00
When you are a Demcratic incumbent and a Democratic pollster has you down 25, you might as well pack it in.

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Thu, August 19, 2010 11:26:55 PM UTC0:00
Yes, because up until that poll, Lincoln had a shot.

 
R:4BILLYW ( 0.9924 points)
Thu, August 19, 2010 11:32:44 PM UTC0:00
So, you're saying there is a chance

 
R:6872Penn Con ( 249.0750 points)
Thu, August 19, 2010 11:46:04 PM UTC0:00
The same poll has Beebe under 50%. Perhaps the GOP needs to aim some fire that way. You never know if there could be a 2002 Roy Barnes-type surprise.

 
R:4BILLYW ( 0.9924 points)
Fri, August 20, 2010 12:01:35 AM UTC0:00
In Haley I trust

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Tue, August 24, 2010 10:36:11 PM UTC0:00
These numbers are absolutely pitiful.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Tue, August 24, 2010 10:44:32 PM UTC0:00
I do wish the Dems could have had the sense to nominate Halter instead of Lincoln. I know he would have lost too, but not by this much. What's the record for the biggest general election loss by an incumbent in a Senate re-election bid? I bet she has a chance of breaking it. She could bring down the rest of the party with her.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Tue, August 24, 2010 11:46:18 PM UTC0:00
Lincoln deserves everything that's coming her way.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Wed, August 25, 2010 03:01:01 AM UTC0:00
Jason: Lincoln deserves everything that's coming her way.

As do many Dems, who for all intents and purposes have told the public to f*ck off.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Thu, August 26, 2010 09:06:53 PM UTC0:00
Monsieur: What's the record for the biggest general election loss by an incumbent in a Senate re-election bid? I bet she has a chance of breaking it.

William Hathaway lost by 22.7% to Bill Cohen as an incumbent in Maine in 1978, also a Democrat losing their seat to a Republican challenger. I swear I saw a Senate race a while back where the incumbent lost by something like a 2-1 margin, but that's the most lopsided incumbent loss I could find in recent history.

 
D:6454Mr. Matt ( 1608.7891 points)
Thu, August 26, 2010 09:16:22 PM UTC0:00
Maryland, 1964? [Link]