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  OR US Senate - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Oregon > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2008 - 12:00am
Polls Open May 20, 2008 - 06:00am
Polls Close May 20, 2008 - 08:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2009 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2015 - 12:00pm
Turnout 69.12% Registered 16.05% Total Population
ContributorInspectorMorse
Last ModifiedDon't Tase Me, Bro! June 15, 2008 09:47pm
Data SourcesThe Oregonian [Link]

[Link]
Description Oregon SOS [Link]
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/05/2002
NameGordon Smith Votes712,287 (56.21%)
Term01/03/2003 - 01/03/2009 Margin210,389 (+16.60%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/04/2008
NameJeff Merkley Votes864,392 (48.90%)
Term01/03/2009 - 01/03/2015 Margin59,233 (+3.35%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceOR US Senate 11/04/2008
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 6.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
08/02/2007 05/20/2008
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Steve Novick 16 4 1 --
Jeff Merkley 5 3 ----
Pavel Goberman ----1 --
Leaning Call: Steve Novick (65.85%)
Weighted Call: Steve Novick (77.31%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
01/28/2008 05/18/2008

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley Steve Novick Candy Neville Roger Obrist Pavel Goberman David Loera (W) Others
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes246,449 (44.87%) 230,860 (42.04%) 38,351 (6.98%) 12,646 (2.30%) 12,054 (2.20%) 6,126 (1.12%) 2,724 (0.50%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -15,589 (-2.84%) -208,098 (-37.89%) -233,803 (-42.57%) -234,395 (-42.68%) -240,323 (-43.76%) -243,725 (-44.38%)
Predict Avg.44.11% 36.05% 9.69% 2.72% 11.83% 2.25% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (7 from 4 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg30.91%-- 35.52%-- 6.03%-- 1.47%-- 1.47%-- 1.47%-- 0.00%--
Public Policy Polling (D) 
05/17/08-05/18/08
33.00% -- 38.00% -- 6.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
05/16/08-05/18/08
34.00% 3.0 37.00% 10.0 7.00% 4.0 2.00% -- 2.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
05/09/08-05/11/08
31.00% 3.0 27.00% 3.0 11.00% 3.0 2.00% 2.0 2.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
Davis, Hibbitts & McCaig 
05/08/08-05/10/08
23.00% -- 29.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
04/28/08-04/30/08
28.00% 17.0 30.00% 7.0 8.00% 4.0 4.00% -- 2.00% 1.0 2.00% 4.0 0.00% --
Survey USA 
04/04/08-04/06/08
11.00% -- 23.00% -- 12.00% -- 4.00% -- 3.00% -- 6.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
IND Monsieur
N Sam Adams [L]
  21st Century Democrats
  Bend Bulletin
D Peter Sorenson [L]
I TX_Socialist
D Sarnstrom
  McMinnville [OR] News-Register
LBT Silver Dime

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
01/00/2008 Steve Novick TVAd Issue eng A Beer With Steve  00:00:30 RBH 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
May 20, 2008 01:40am Commentary An Eloquent, Graceful Exit  Article Craverguy 
Apr 26, 2008 04:20pm Endorsement For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick  Article Craverguy 
Apr 17, 2008 10:05pm News Novick's 2nd choice: Frohnmayer  Article Craverguy 
Jul 25, 2007 01:00pm News Merkley to form fund-raising committee for Ore. Senate race  Article WesternDem 
May 18, 2007 01:00pm News [OR Rep] Wu won’t run against [Sen] Smith, either  Article ArmyDem 
May 17, 2007 02:15pm Blog Entry Smith '08: [OR State] Senator Alan Bates "seriously considering"  Article WesternDem 

DISCUSSION
[View All
188
Previous Messages]
 
CST:1679mrcharlesmburns ( 0.0000 points)
Mon, December 31, 2007 06:47:22 PM UTC0:00
Merkley-

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Mon, December 31, 2007 06:52:38 PM UTC0:00
Merkley is probably the strongest but that's not saying much.

 
I:6412socalgal50 ( 58.0696 points)
Wed, January 30, 2008 07:10:51 PM UTC0:00
I'm pulling for Merkley too but still expect Smith to win comfortably.

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Wed, January 30, 2008 08:34:46 PM UTC0:00
Pulling for the Speaker over a guy like Steve Novick is like cheering for USC Football. Sure, you'll feel good. But it's not entirely daring.

Anyways I'm hooked on Novick.

 
D:1819PA-FL Dem ( 840.5526 points)
Thu, January 31, 2008 12:17:41 AM UTC0:00
Any polling?

 
D:633WesternDem ( 892.4465 points)
Tue, March 4, 2008 12:37:39 AM UTC0:00
Kitzhaber's endorsement [Link] could be a big deal for Novick.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, March 4, 2008 01:13:17 AM UTC0:00
Interesting. Although I think that Merkley's still the frontrunner (and I don't think it matters much, since I believe they'd both lose to Smith), the backing of Novick by a couple of recent Oregonian political figures (Kitzhaber and to a somewhat lesser extent AuCoin) might very well help him out.

A poll would be nice for this race, seeing as we're only a little under three months from it.

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Tue, March 4, 2008 01:21:08 AM UTC0:00
Andy: A poll would be nice for this race, seeing as we're only a little under three months from it.

[Link] (.pdf)

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, March 4, 2008 01:26:51 AM UTC0:00
Thank you!

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Tue, March 4, 2008 03:45:59 AM UTC0:00
Wow, 12%-9%. Talk about electoral powerhouses. Welcome back to the Senate, Mr. Smith.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, March 4, 2008 04:32:41 AM UTC0:00
Don't underestimate the strength of Pavel Goberman, professional Cor-rup-tion Fighter!

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Thu, April 3, 2008 07:20:28 AM UTC0:00
eQualityGiving has decided to hedge its bets here.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 05:43:05 AM UTC0:00
Neville's ahead of Merkley now?

Uh, yikes.

 
D:854Ex-New Jerseyan ( 2644.1382 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 05:45:04 AM UTC0:00
Only 11% for Merkley? That's pretty bad at this point. Clearly there's a lot of people undecided still who don't even know who the candidates are but still... he should be doing better than this.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 06:06:43 AM UTC0:00
If I hadn't already predicted that Novick would take it, I'd do so now.

This race is Exhibit 1 of how the DSCC wouldn't know a strong candidate if one walked up and kicked them in the ass.

 
I:1038MD Indy ( 884.9736 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 06:10:09 AM UTC0:00
DSCC doesn't get involved in a primary that's clearly dividing the state party.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 06:48:51 AM UTC0:00
I'd love to know how the hell David Loera, whoever that is, is getting 6% of the vote.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 06:57:26 AM UTC0:00
"DSCC doesn't get involved in a primary that's clearly dividing the state party."

Bull****. They recruited Merkley to run in the first place. Look it up.

 
R:6427Ferriswh.googlepages.com ( -39.6984 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 07:01:46 AM UTC0:00
Safe Goberman

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 07:05:11 AM UTC0:00
Merkley's standing in this poll is pathetic. With that said, they're probably biding their time, and laying the groundwork for a huge ad blitz in the final two weeks of the campaign to capture the lion's share of the giant bloc of undecided voters here.

 
D:854Ex-New Jerseyan ( 2644.1382 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 07:21:39 AM UTC0:00
According to the article the poll is from, Merkley will start runing his first ads tomorrow in Portland and Eugene.

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 07:26:41 AM UTC0:00
I Googled it see and found the same. I guess he won't be waiting until the last couple of weeks. The polls should begin to shift soon.

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 07:30:07 AM UTC0:00
Not if Novick can come up with another free-media-generating ad, like "A Beer with Steve."

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 07:59:46 AM UTC0:00
That didn't get him that much of the vote. There's still a large percentage that is undecided.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Tue, April 8, 2008 08:04:03 AM UTC0:00
Craverguy seems to believe every candidate he likes is the stronger one.