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  LA US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Louisiana > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline August 18, 2004 - 12:00pm
Polls Open November 02, 2004 - 06:00am
Polls Close November 02, 2004 - 08:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2005 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2011 - 12:00pm
Turnout 66.86% Registered 41.11% Total Population
ContributorBrandon
Last ModifiedRBH April 25, 2008 12:31pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/1998
NameJohn B. Breaux Votes620,502 (64.02%)
Term01/03/1999 - 01/03/2005 Margin313,886 (+32.39%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/02/2010
NameDavid Vitter Votes715,415 (56.55%)
Term01/03/2011 - 01/03/2017 Margin238,843 (+18.88%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.8000001907 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
01/29/2004 11/02/2004
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
David Vitter 8 15 16 16
Chris John 3 2 ----
Leaning Call: David Vitter (95.54%)
Weighted Call: David Vitter (82.51%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
12/01/2003 10/31/2004

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. David Vitter Rep. Chris John Treasurer John N. Kennedy St. Rep. Arthur A. Morrell Richard Fontanesi Clerk of Courts R.A. "Skip" Galan Sam Houston Melton, Jr.
PartyRepublican Democratic Democratic Democratic Libertarian Independent Democratic
Website [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes941,507 (51.04%) 540,985 (29.33%) 275,259 (14.92%) 47,097 (2.55%) 15,084 (0.82%) 12,484 (0.68%) 12,346 (0.67%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -400,522 (-21.71%) -666,248 (-36.12%) -894,410 (-48.48%) -926,423 (-50.22%) -929,023 (-50.36%) -929,161 (-50.37%)
Predict Avg.52.48% 23.24% 24.85% 4.98% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 3/31 $2,605,352.00 3/31 $1,025,431.00 3/31 $708,645.00 $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (22 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg42.76%-- 18.85%-- 17.47%-- 6.62%-- 0.75%-- 1.47%-- 8.54%--
Verne Kennedy 
10/31/04-10/31/04
51.00% 4.0 12.00% 8.0 16.00% 2.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Verne Kennedy 
10/30/04-10/30/04
47.00% 9.0 21.00% 2.0 15.00% 10.0 3.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
MRI Consulting 
10/27/04-10/27/04
51.00% -- 15.00% -- 17.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Southeastern Louisiana University 
10/17/04-10/22/04
42.90% -- 18.10% -- 10.40% -- 1.10% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Verne Kennedy 
10/18/04-10/20/04
47.00% 5.0 18.00% 2.0 16.00% 3.0 2.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Loyola Institute of Politics 
10/15/04-10/18/04
39.00% -- 15.00% -- 18.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Mike Grimmer [L]
  New Orleans Times-Picayune
R ...
  Club for Growth
DL Some say...
R TurnerforCongress
D Ex-New Jerseyan
  New Orleans Tribune
D Jason
D Andy
D Charles "C. D." Jones
D William J. Jefferson
Laf-W Craverguy
I TX_Socialist

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 27, 2004 12:00am Poll Tracking poll shows Vitter getting 51 percent  Article None Entered 
Oct 21, 2004 12:00am Endorsement Vitter Gets Louisiana Cops Endorsement  Article Tony82 
Oct 20, 2004 12:00am News Senate Candidate Vitter Sends Cash in latest Campaign Mailer  Article Brandon 
Oct 08, 2004 12:00am News National Democrats Prepare to Hit Vitter  Article Tony82 
Aug 16, 2004 12:00am News Democrats vie for black voters  Article New York Democrat 
Jul 06, 2004 12:00am News DSCC Gets Tough: Committee Backs John in Effort to Chase Kennedy From La. Race  Article John 

DISCUSSION
[View All
633
Previous Messages]
 
D:862acr1313 ( 0.0000 points)
Sun, January 25, 2004 06:33:38 PM UTC0:00
Another Candidate to consider on the Democratic side is Jim Bernhard, President of the Shaw Group Inc.

 
D:704John ( 3346.7625 points)
Wed, January 28, 2004 11:13:24 PM UTC0:00
Does anyone have any more news about Chris John running? I noticed that his name is still under the undecided status.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Wed, January 28, 2004 11:30:51 PM UTC0:00
Hasn't officially declared yet. See article above.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 07:38:26 PM UTC0:00
Interesting poll. Anyone know if Penn Schoen Berland is partisan?

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 07:40:06 PM UTC0:00
Actually it appears to be a Democratic poll. This might be troubling news for the Democrats.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 07:50:17 PM UTC0:00
Okay, it is was a poll done by the Kennedy campaign.

A recent poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates Inc. shows Republican David Vitter leading the race for governor with his Democratic rivals Chris John and John Kennedy tied for second place. Vitter has 34 percent, John has 16 percent and Kennedy has 15 percent. Democrat Jim Bernhard polled 4 percent, and 31 percent of voters were undecided. The poll of 502 likely voters was conducted from Jan. 22-24. It's margin of error is +/-4.4 percent. The poll was commissioned by the Kennedy Campaign. To read the poll yourself,<?i>

 
PRB:238Mr. Techno ( -125.1277 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 08:12:18 PM UTC0:00
Kennedy should have just burnt the poll, why the heck would you release a poll showing you in a distant 3rd place?

 
Reg:16None Entered ( 1178.9144 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 08:14:30 PM UTC0:00
Because it statistically ties him with the Democrat frontrunner?

 
PRB:238Mr. Techno ( -125.1277 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 08:17:11 PM UTC0:00
I still think that this poll doesn't help Kennedy too much.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Thu, January 29, 2004 08:19:14 PM UTC0:00
The details of the poll show that he is the top #2 choice.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 01:05:12 AM UTC0:00
Now who was saying Vitter didn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of winning?

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 01:24:02 AM UTC0:00
The Democrats will probably beat each other up for second place to face Vitter in the run-off.

I've been burned too many times by Louisiana Republicans to think that Democrats won't pull-off another December Surprise.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 02:24:25 AM UTC0:00
Burned? Apparently those did not have a snowball's chance in hell :)

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 02:25:14 AM UTC0:00
I'd probably expect this to be similar to the Gov race. Vitter will probably win the initial election, and the runoff will be close.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 02:33:21 AM UTC0:00
I'm not entirely sold on the idea that John will be the Democrat that survives. If Ieyoub and Kennedy get in, it seems that they will have a formidable statewide organization in place and name recognition.

I am curious who Blanco backs.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 02:35:02 AM UTC0:00
Also African-American politicians stayed out of the Governor's race, will they also stay out of this race? If a prominent pol like Fields or Nagin gets in it will impact the Democratic vote.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 03:33:31 AM UTC0:00
Yes, Ieyoub has the potential to be very strong, though I don't know much at all about Kennedy, Fields, or Nagin.

 
R:2NoMoreBS ( 789.4441 points)
Fri, January 30, 2004 10:49:07 PM UTC0:00
This poll means nothing. The GOP has no problem getting to 48% in statewide elections; it's that last 2 % that is killing the GOP.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 12:16:38 AM UTC0:00
Bernhard is not going to run. I am dropping him from the race and will post the link above.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 12:19:10 AM UTC0:00
Well, I can't post the link, but here it is from PoliticsLA.com:
Jim Bernhard will not seek Senate seat
Jim Bernhard, the CEO of the Shaw Group and chief of Gov. Kathleen Blanco’s transition team, will not seek the Senate seat being vacated by John Breaux. Bernhard announced in a memo that was circulated among Shaw Group employees, that he will not pursue the campaign. Bernhard said that is going back to work to focus on issues important to Shaw. His office was contacted but so far has been unavailable for comment.

 
I:490User 490 ( 1224.6385 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 12:25:22 AM UTC0:00
Interesting, good find politix. To my knowledge Kennedy hasn't declared yet either. The Dems seem pretty close to clearing the field for John.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 12:50:23 AM UTC0:00
Thank you Val. I like your shoes :) I am curious about the field. I think for the next few months Dems will be feeling out their bases and seeing what kind of strength they might have in a race. This is going to a run-off if more then one Dem enters, key is to get it down to one Dem.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 08:16:32 AM UTC0:00
Joshua, Mr. Mod, and TexasDem:

You all still have safe/strong Breaux predictions.

 
I:490User 490 ( 1224.6385 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 08:20:56 AM UTC0:00
I had read a couple weeks ago that Kennedy was on the verge of announcing a run. Obviously he has not done so and the longer that he stays on the sideline the more pressure he'll get to stay out. I was initially less optimistic than most about John's chances, but if he can avoid a primary then he is the favorite in my book.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Sat, January 31, 2004 08:23:56 AM UTC0:00
He's the favorite in mine too, though if Jim Bernhard runs he could be a serious contender.....which is why I'm somewhat mystified that he's not on the list of potential candidates here. As for Ieyoub, all indications are that he will not run.