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  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2012 - 12:00am Central
Polls Open November 06, 2012 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2012 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2013 - 01:00pm
Term End January 03, 2019 - 01:00pm
ContributorThomas Walker
Last ModifiedRBH December 03, 2012 10:54pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/07/2006
NameJon Kyl Votes814,398 (53.34%)
Term01/03/2007 - 01/03/2013 Margin150,257 (+9.84%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameKyrsten Sinema Votes1,191,100 (49.96%)
Term01/03/2019 - 12/09/2022 Margin55,900 (+2.34%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 28, 2012 AZ US Senate - R Primary
Jeff Flake
R 516,025
Aug 28, 2012 AZ US Senate - D Primary
Richard Carmona
D 289,881
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
06/06/2007 11/06/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Jeff Flake 32 31 4 4
Richard Carmona 4 ------
Leaning Call: Jeff Flake (96.83%)
Weighted Call: Jeff Flake (99.97%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/28/2011 11/03/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. Jeff Flake Surgeon General Richard Carmona Marc Victor (W) Steven Watts (W) Don Manspeaker  
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian Independent Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 1,104,457 (49.23%) 1,036,542 (46.20%) 102,109 (4.55%) 290 (0.01%) 24 (0.00%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -67,915 (-3.03%) -1,002,348 (-44.68%) -1,104,167 (-49.22%) -1,104,433 (-49.23%)  
Predict Avg.48.75% 44.56% 4.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 12/31 $627,851.62 $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2011 00/00/2011 00/00/2012 -- --  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (27 from 13 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.62%-- 42.69%-- 3.37%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Public Policy Polling 
11/02/12-11/03/12		 51.00% 8.0 46.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/31/12-11/03/12		 49.00% 5.0 42.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Anzalone Liszt Research (D) 
10/17/12-10/21/12		 41.00% 3.0 45.00% 2.0 5.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Rasmussen Reports 
10/21/12-10/21/12		 50.00% 3.0 44.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/04/12-10/11/12		 44.00% -- 38.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Behavior Research Center 
10/04/12-10/10/12		 40.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
I JonathanNC
R CincinnatiReds1990
AENM Angry Russian
D Bob
R Maryland Republican
  eQualityGiving
  Fraternal Order of Police
  International Association of Firefighters
  National Association of Police Organizations
  Arizona Daily Star (Tuscon)
  Tucson Weekly
D Campari_007
D Labour Dem
D TEXAN FOR HILLARY
  Veterans' Alliance for Security and Democracy (VETPAC)
SNP Progressive Scot
R Joanne Goldwater
D Jason
Veg Thomas Walker
LBT Smart
LBT Jed
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Oct 10, 2012 06:00pm Oct 10, 2012 07:00pm Debate First Arizona Senate Debate  Campari_007 
Oct 15, 2012 12:00am Oct 15, 2012 12:00am Debate Second Arizona Senate Debate  Campari_007 
Oct 25, 2012 12:00am Oct 25, 2012 12:00am Debate Third Arizona Senate Debate  Campari_007 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/25/2012 Richard Carmona TVAd Endorsement eng Confirmation  00:00:30 RP 
10/15/2012 Richard Carmona TVAd Biography eng Mom  00:00:34 Progressive Scot 
10/15/2012 vs Jeff Flake TVAd Attack eng We Can't Risk Jeff Flake in the U.S. Senate   00:00:31 RP 
10/12/2012 Richard Carmona vs Jeff Flake TVAd Contrast eng Ashamed  00:00:30 Progressive Scot 
10/11/2012 vs Jeff Flake TVAd Attack eng Jeff Flake's Out of Touch, Extreme Record is Wrong for Arizona  00:00:30 Progressive Scot 
10/11/2012 Jeff Flake vs Richard Carmona TVAd Attack eng Never, Ever  00:00:30 John 
10/05/2012 Richard Carmona vs Jeff Flake TVAd Contrast eng Life's Work  00:00:33 Progressive Scot 
10/04/2012 vs Jeff Flake TVAd Attack eng Jeff Flake: Too Extreme for Arizona Women  00:00:30 Progressive Scot 
10/02/2012 vs Richard Carmona TVAd Attack eng Know  00:00:30 RP 
09/27/2012 vs Jeff Flake TVAd Attack eng Respect  00:00:32 RP 
09/25/2012 Richard Carmona vs Jeff Flake TVAd Mixed eng Lived It  00:00:32 RP 
09/18/2012 Jeff Flake vs Richard Carmona TVAd Contrast eng Some Decisions Are Just Easier Than Others   00:00:31 RP 
09/12/2012 Richard Carmona TVAd Issue eng Both  00:00:31 RP 
09/10/2012 Richard Carmona TVAd Issue eng Contract  00:00:31 RP 
09/04/2012 Richard Carmona TVAd Biography eng El Camino  00:00:30 RP 
08/28/2012 Jeff Flake vs Richard Carmona TVAd Attack eng Liberal Richard Carmona thinks Obamacare was "Brave"   00:01:02 RP 
08/28/2012 Richard Carmona TVAd Biography eng Problem Solving  00:00:31 RP 
07/31/2012 Jeff Flake TVAd Mixed eng Jeff Flake, Arizona Conservative   00:00:31 Jason 
07/24/2012 Jeff Flake TVAd Endorsement eng Jon Kyl Endorses Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate   00:00:30 Crimson 
06/13/2012 Jeff Flake TVAd Mixed eng Arizona’s Battle-Tested Conservative  00:00:31 Crimson 
06/12/2012 Jeff Flake Radio Ad Mixed eng Arizona's battle-tested conservative is Jeff Flake   00:01:01 RP 
03/21/2012 Jeff Flake TVAd Issue eng Worst. Birthday. Ever.  00:00:51 Craverguy 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 08, 2012 10:40am Endorsement Bill Clinton to headline rally for Rich Carmona in Tempe Oct.10  Article Jason 
Oct 02, 2012 06:00am News DSCC going up in Arizona  Article John 
Aug 21, 2012 05:00pm News Carmona touts funds from Republican, independent backers  Article Jason 

DISCUSSION