Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A collaborative political resource." 
Email: Password:

  CA Governor - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > California > Governor
OfficeGovernor
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline March 17, 2010 - 12:00pm
Polls Open June 08, 2010 - 06:00am
Polls Close June 08, 2010 - 10:00pm
Term Start January 03, 2011 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2015 - 12:00pm
Turnout 45.47% Registered 6.38% Total Population
ContributorEric
Last ModifiedJason October 30, 2010 10:27pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/07/2006
NameArnold Schwarzenegger Votes4,850,157 (55.88%)
Term01/03/2007 - 01/03/2011 Margin1,473,425 (+16.98%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/02/2010
NameEdmund G. "Jerry" Brown, Jr. Votes5,428,149 (53.77%)
Term01/03/2011 - 01/05/2015 Margin1,300,758 (+12.88%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceCA Governor 11/02/2010
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.1999998093 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/13/2007 06/08/2010
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Steve Poizner 2 2 1 --
Meg Whitman 9 2 9 9
Leaning Call: Meg Whitman (89.41%)
Weighted Call: Meg Whitman (98.73%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
02/20/2009 06/06/2010

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Meg Whitman Commissioner of Insurance Steve Poizner Lawrence "Larry" Naritelli Robert C. Newman II Ken Miller William S. Chambers Douglas R. Hughes
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes1,529,534 (64.35%) 632,940 (26.63%) 54,202 (2.28%) 38,462 (1.62%) 36,609 (1.54%) 34,243 (1.44%) 26,085 (1.10%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -896,594 (-37.72%) -1,475,332 (-62.06%) -1,491,072 (-62.73%) -1,492,925 (-62.81%) -1,495,291 (-62.90%) -1,503,449 (-63.25%)
Predict Avg.44.75% 28.72% 1.80% 0.13% 0.13% 0.33% 0.13%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (26 from 11 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg49.50%-- 26.33%-- 0.32%-- 0.32%-- 0.32%-- 0.32%-- 0.32%--
Survey USA 
06/03/10-06/06/10
59.00% 5.0 30.00% 3.0 1.00% 1.0 1.00% -- 1.00% 1.0 1.00% 1.0 1.00% 1.0
Field Poll 
05/27/10-06/02/10
51.00% 12.0 25.00% 11.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Probolsky & Assoc. 
05/30/10-06/01/10
54.40% 20.1 24.00% 18.5 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Los Angeles Times 
05/19/10-05/26/10
53.00% 7.0 29.00% 9.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R) 
05/24/10-05/24/10
54.00% 9.0 19.00% 7.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
05/21/10-05/23/10
51.00% -- 26.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
AENM Angry Russian
  San Jose Mercury News
R Dick Cheney [L]
R Condoleezza "Condi" Rice [L]
  Santa Cruz Sentinel
R Tom McClintock [L]
  Contra Costa Times
  San Francisco Chronicle
AnFed pghopper
  Independence Caucus
F Blue Republican
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name David Tully-Smith (W) Steve Mozena  
PartyRepublican Republican  
Website  
Certified Votes24,978 (1.05%) 26 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,504,556 (-63.29%) -1,529,508 (-64.34%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (26 from 11 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.32%-- 0.00%--  
Survey USA 
06/03/10-06/06/10
1.00% -- 0.00% --
Field Poll 
05/27/10-06/02/10
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Probolsky & Assoc. 
05/30/10-06/01/10
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Los Angeles Times 
05/19/10-05/26/10
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R) 
05/24/10-05/24/10
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
05/21/10-05/23/10
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
May 03, 2010 06:10pm Analysis Once left for dead, Poizner is making it a race  Article Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! 
Apr 12, 2010 11:20pm Announcement Once again, Meg Whitman promises to release her tax returns  Article Jason 
Apr 12, 2010 07:00pm Blog Entry A Campaign Dedicated to Losing  Article Jason 
Apr 12, 2010 07:00pm Strategy Meg Whitman team studying 2 CEOs' winning runs  Article Jason 
Mar 09, 2010 01:00am Analysis Whitman ads create a crisis of confidence  Article Jason 
Jan 24, 2010 12:00pm Analysis Poizner's operation of Insurance Department a factor in California governor's race  Article Patrick 

DISCUSSION
[View All
131
Previous Messages]
 
N:6907queenspolitico@gmail.com ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, September 8, 2009 04:16:47 AM UTC0:00
No more Ahnold....

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
Thu, November 5, 2009 08:04:47 PM UTC0:00
Whitman has been advertising lately, so that might be why she's higher in the polls. She's still pretty amorphous right now, but neither Campbell nor Poizner will pass conservative litmus tests.

 
R:6557Moving to Miami ( -4.8329 points)
Sat, January 23, 2010 03:18:52 AM UTC0:00
How do you remove an endorsement of a candidate who has stepped down?

 
AM:7114Conservative for America. ( 76.1380 points)
Sun, February 21, 2010 05:02:42 AM UTC0:00
Poizner's speech is going to gain him momentum

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Sun, February 21, 2010 05:06:42 AM UTC0:00
What speech?

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Sun, February 21, 2010 05:13:41 AM UTC0:00
At CPAC.

 
I:681excelsior ( 1819.1344 points)
Sun, February 21, 2010 10:07:11 PM UTC0:00
LOL. Poizner should just drop out and run for some House seat.

 
AM:7114Conservative for America. ( 76.1380 points)
Mon, February 22, 2010 09:31:27 PM UTC0:00
no, poizner is going to win, no matter what polls say

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Wed, March 3, 2010 06:33:50 PM UTC0:00
I really doubt Poizner will win this primary, but he's got my vote. I'm curious what makes you think that he'll be able to overcome the MEGabucks Juggernaut of Corporate Mediocrity? Not that Poizner himself is any great shakes, but he's clearly superior to Whitman.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Wed, March 10, 2010 09:19:26 PM UTC0:00
So, MEGabucks Whitman calls an event, invites the media, and keeps them shunted off in some room, and then ignores their shouted questions as she's leaving. Is this person serious? Does she really think she can be elected without ever talking to the state's media? Her campaign is a joke. If my party nominates her, we'll lose in a LANDSLIDE! In a year that didn't favour the Republicans so much, she'd probably lose in Fresno County, for crying out loud! She is the worst credible candidate for office in California since Dan Lungren in 1998 (and I liked Lungren, even if the voters didn't, and in fairness, she'll probably turn out to be a lot worse than Lungren). If I didn't assume I know better, I'd think she was a Democratic mole, sent in to use her money to ensure that the Republicans nominate a gubernatorial candidate that the Democrats can easily demolish.

[Link]

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, March 10, 2010 09:48:41 PM UTC0:00
Why isn't a statewide elected republican like Poisner doing better than he is?

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
Wed, March 10, 2010 10:11:49 PM UTC0:00
Poizner has a moderate track record. Primary voters can project anything they want upon Whitman since she has no record.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, March 10, 2010 11:42:58 PM UTC0:00
Also doesn't help that Whitman's ads seem to be outnumbering Poizner's at least 10 to 1.

It's almost as bad as those promotional ads for The Marriage Ref during the winter Olympics.

 
R:194ScottĀ³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Fri, March 26, 2010 03:39:03 AM UTC0:00
Has the filing deadline passed here?

It seems like Poizner should just switch back to running for re-election or something.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 191.5293 points)
Fri, March 26, 2010 03:41:24 AM UTC0:00
It passed a few days go.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Fri, March 26, 2010 03:41:47 AM UTC0:00
ScottĀ³: Has the filing deadline passed here?

Yep. I kept it in mind so as to switch parties in time for the primaries.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Fri, March 26, 2010 03:53:10 AM UTC0:00
So embarrassing for Poizner.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Mon, April 12, 2010 02:28:55 PM UTC0:00
Whitman's lead over Poizner is now being reported as 61-11.

[Link]

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Thu, April 22, 2010 02:37:45 PM UTC0:00
The latest poll (posted here) shows Whitman's lead over Poizner down to 55-24. While I'm still pretty sure Whitman is going to win this thing, I would say that virtually everyone who isn't already for Whitman, will never be for her (she's blanketing the TV, radio, and postal boxes across this sate; I'm just waiting for her relentless series of obnoxious robo-calls). If Whitman falls to, say, 47 in the polls, Poizner may actually have a real shot at thing thing after all.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Thu, April 22, 2010 02:53:38 PM UTC0:00
And the odd thing about the 55-24 poll (the closest poll in a while, although still not that close) is that it was released by Whitman's campaign.

 
Veg:334Nothing wrong, just gone ( 591.1573 points)
Thu, April 22, 2010 05:41:02 PM UTC0:00
A 31 point margin. Yeah, this is gonna be a barnburner of a race, folks.

 
R:373... ( 421.7247 points)
Thu, April 22, 2010 07:24:22 PM UTC0:00
All that campaign spending is going to be vindicated.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Thu, April 22, 2010 11:01:36 PM UTC0:00
I don't think there's much doubt her massive, overwhelming media barrage is alienating people more than its helping her, at this stage. Its particularly irritating the way she constantly insults our intelligence by trying to paint Poizner as, I don't know, to the left of Kucinich, or something. Whitman will definitely receive less than 60 percent of the vote in June, but less than 50 percent is a lot less likely.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Thu, April 22, 2010 11:19:44 PM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: I don't think there's much doubt her massive, overwhelming media barrage is alienating people more than its helping her, at this stage.

I don't know about that. Those polls certainly make it look like it's helping her.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Fri, April 23, 2010 02:15:57 AM UTC0:00
Her media barrage helped her establish a giant lead in January, when it was entirely about name recognition (which she bought for herself). Its almost May now, and so an entirely different dynamic is in play ie., people are starting to hate Meg Whitman (due to her ridiculously overkill media barrage; I've received probably over twenty mailings from her campaign in the last six weeks), right about the time they are gearing up to start paying attention to the election. And her lead has shrunk by about 40 percent from where it had been.