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  MEX President
RACE DETAILS
Parents > Mexico > President
OfficePresident
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00pm
Polls Open July 01, 2012 - 07:00am
Polls Close July 01, 2012 - 08:00pm
Term Start December 01, 2012 - 12:00pm
Term End December 01, 2018 - 12:00pm
Turnout 46.62% Total Population
ContributorRalphie
Last ModifiedPaul June 10, 2013 11:23am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyNational Action Won07/02/2006
NameFelipe Calderón Hinojosa Votes15,000,284 (35.89%)
Term12/01/2006 - 12/01/2012 Margin243,934 (+0.58%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Nov 16, 2011 MEX President - PRD Primary Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Nov 16, 2011 MEX President - Labor Nomination Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Nov 17, 2011 MEX President - PRI Primary Enrique Peña Nieto
Feb 05, 2012 MEX President - PAN Primary Josefina Vázquez Mota
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 10.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
09/24/2007 07/01/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Enrique Peña Nieto 12 7 1 3
Leaning Call: Enrique Peña Nieto (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Enrique Peña Nieto (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
05/21/2010 06/24/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Gov. Enrique Peña Nieto Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador Fed. Dep. Josefina Vázquez Mota Blank - Void Gabriel Quadri de la Torre (W) Others  
PartyInstitutional Revolutionary Democratic Revolution National Action No Party Affiliation New Alliance Independent  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Certified Votes19,158,592 (38.21%) 15,848,827 (31.61%) 12,732,630 (25.39%) 1,236,857 (2.47%) 1,146,085 (2.29%) 20,625 (0.04%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -3,309,765 (-6.60%) -6,425,962 (-12.82%) -17,921,735 (-35.74%) -18,012,507 (-35.92%) -19,137,967 (-38.17%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (31 from 9 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg32.03%-- 22.82%-- 22.36%-- 0.00%-- 2.36%-- 0.00%--  
Consulta Mitofsky 
06/22/12-06/24/12
38.00% -- 25.00% 1.0 21.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
Parametría 
06/18/12-06/23/12
35.50% 2.5 23.30% 1.3 19.10% 0.1 0.00% -- 3.10% 0.1 0.00% --
Consulta Mitofsky 
06/15/12-06/17/12
38.00% 0.2 24.00% -- 21.00% 0.6 0.00% -- 2.00% 0.1 0.00% --
Reforma 
06/14/12-06/17/12
33.40% 4.9 24.10% 1.4 19.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 3.50% 0.5 0.00% --
Parametría 
06/12/12-06/16/12
33.00% -- 22.00% 2.0 19.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% 1.0 0.00% --
El Universal 
06/11/12-06/14/12
37.00% 0.8 23.50% 0.4 21.40% 1.0 0.00% -- 3.00% 0.8 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
I Rosario Robles Berlanga [L]
PAN Manuel Espino Barrientos [L]
PRI Paul
PVEM Ecologist Green Party
MC Citizens' Movement Party
D La Fayette
D Sarnstrom
I TX_Socialist
AENM Angry Russian
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
 

EVENTS
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VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jul 02, 2012 12:35am News Peña Nieto projected winner in Mexican presidential vote  Article Andy 
May 07, 2012 04:40pm Event Sexy Lady Disrupts Mexican Presidential Debate with Boobs, Butt  Article RP 
Dec 05, 2011 01:00pm News Mexican presidential hopeful flubs book question  Article Ralphie 

DISCUSSION
[View All
64
Previous Messages]
 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Tue, March 6, 2012 10:13:32 PM UTC0:00
If memory serves GEA-ISA was either the first or one of the first to show Calderón in the lead last time. It was also one of his best pollsters and seems to trend favourably to PAN. Still, it's great news for Vázquez. I haven't been paying very close attention recently to be able to account for the swing, though. I would assume Peña did/said something to further the perception that he's a lightweight?

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Wed, March 28, 2012 05:20:20 PM UTC0:00
With two of the most powerful positions in Mexican politics, should be interesting.

 
DFL:8625JC42 ( 115.1898 points)
Sat, March 31, 2012 04:12:15 AM UTC0:00
My question is, would Peña or Lopez Obrador change the way the drug war is being fought? That seems to be by far the most pressing issue facing Mexico today.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Sat, March 31, 2012 05:29:31 AM UTC0:00
Yes, they would strategically surrender.

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 03:52:33 AM UTC0:00
hey guys I'm new here, I can tell you that Enrique Peña Nieto is gonna win because Josefina Vázquez Mota is a disaster as a candidate

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 03:58:07 AM UTC0:00
Why is she a disaster?

and why do you support the PRI? What ideology are you? Right or left-wing?

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 04:22:58 AM UTC0:00
because is the party that knows how to govern that's why it has won the mayority of the elections and I am moderate I don't believe in the extremes

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 04:41:05 AM UTC0:00
she is a disaster because she doesn't answer the questions, her campaign has been based on attacking enrique peña nieto because he is "prista", she has said that her goverment is gonna be the same as Calderon but at the same time is gonna be a change

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 07:54:51 AM UTC0:00
Regardless, I'm sure she'll be less a disaster than Santiago Creel would have been. I mean, I kinda like the guy since he's more from the Fox wing of the party but he's about as exciting as the plague.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 08:03:46 AM UTC0:00
What wing is there other than the Fox wing?

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
x3
Mon, April 16, 2012 08:24:50 AM UTC0:00
Mexico needs a runoff.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 08:55:32 AM UTC0:00
Picimpalious: What wing is there other than the Fox wing?

The party doesn't really have named factions with strong leaders but for now I'll just call them the Santorum wing. Essentially strong social conservatives who care more about purity on those issues than strict adherence to conservative economics. I consider Fox to be more of a libertarian figure, not kowtowing to the Catholic Church on everything and focusing on economics. He's rather rare in his party on marijuana and I might be remembering wrong but I seem to recall him and/or Creel being at least somewhat pro-choice. Probably more on the Mexican political spectrum than anything.

TEXAN FOR HILLARY: Mexico needs a runoff.

Would be nice, though I'm not certain it would have changed the outcome either of the last two elections. The PRI can be very different depending on which region of the country it is and I recall were quite split between Calderón and AMLO last time.

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 09:20:46 AM UTC0:00
I don't think a runoff would be great for Mexico, it would cost too much and yeah PAN has some very conservative people like the governor of Jalisco and Guanajuato but I don't think they are so extreme like Santorum

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 09:29:53 AM UTC0:00
Santiago Creel at least looks prepared, she doesn't look prepared to run a country

 
I:1038MD Indy ( 884.9736 points)
Mon, April 16, 2012 04:34:20 PM UTC0:00
It'd cost more, but what kind of mandate do you have when you only win 36% of the vote?

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Tue, April 17, 2012 07:33:34 AM UTC0:00
Mexico used to have a run-off (until 1994), but the 2nd round never got held. The PRI nominee always managed to get over 50 percent in the first round (like when Carlos Salinas de Gortari got 50.3 percent in 1988 - yeah, like that ever really happened).

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Tue, April 17, 2012 07:37:43 AM UTC0:00
no, it was because the pri candidates always got more than fifty percent of the vote

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Tue, April 17, 2012 07:38:10 AM UTC0:00
there has never been run-off in Mexico

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, April 17, 2012 08:14:42 AM UTC0:00
So there was a run-off in place but the PRI always got over 50%? Did the PRI get rid of it?

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Tue, April 17, 2012 08:25:21 AM UTC0:00
no, there has never been run-off, I wrote that becuase he said that before 1994 the presidents won with more than fifty percent

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Thu, April 19, 2012 11:04:14 AM UTC0:00
That poll is without leaners. When people were pushed to name a candidate, EPN won 50%. The PRI is also at 51% in the parliamentary race. Mexico might not need run-offs after all.

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Fri, April 20, 2012 12:42:48 AM UTC0:00
I continue to believe that it is going to be more competitive at the end

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Fri, April 20, 2012 08:40:19 AM UTC0:00
In a poll today, Andres Manuel López Obrador is in 2nd. place

 
PRI:8723Paul ( 453.4403 points)
Fri, May 18, 2012 09:05:47 AM UTC0:00
In the University the Students hate Enrique Peña Nieto

 
D:917NYDem Junior ( 1973.3054 points)
Fri, May 18, 2012 04:16:28 PM UTC0:00
That's a huge lead in the polls. Is this race pretty much over?