CR are a new firm. They poll for the Sindy and weight a lot. My suspicion is that they overestimate Labour by about 2 to 4 pts. Interestingly that's about the amount YouGov underrepresent Labour due to their methodology under low income voters without internet acess.

Tom, where did you get the polls from? I really suggest putting a link in poll entries.

angus reid

Guesundheit.

Parliamentary elections are about seats, not votes. Labour has a huge seat margin right now, it would take a landslide of epic proportions to bring them down, even if the Tories came close in the popular vote.

CanadianRyan is right. I have scene cases where the opposition gets the majority of the votes comfortably but because the incumbant Governments seat-margin was that high, they still won easily.

All 5 major polls are showing some movement from Labour to Tory.

Also, similar to early voting here in the states there will be postal voting in the UK. This will begin in about 2 weeks.

Does anybody know a site that lists party slates? I've been unable to find one.

I don't believe they are all set yet. The final candidate lists are to be set in the next few days and then published.

" there will be postal voting in the UK" - User#13 Sounds dangerous.

Also, people have been switching parties for this election. So we don't if the people running are running in the same party they were last time.

"I don't believe they are all set yet. The final candidate lists are to be set in the next few days and then published." - User#1532 That won't leave us much time. If we want to get all seats up in time for the election, those of us interested in adding them should divide them up to make sure all gets entered.

True....I was wondering, who has entered the most UK Parliament races so far? Useless contribution? Just wondering :)

Useless when you can't enter them this time around.

Oh, I could, if you weren't paraniod that I would delete everything. So, let me ask, are you saying that the past elections I entered are useless?

Totally.

There's a site (electoralcalcus.co.uk IIRC) that works out how many seats each party would get with different vote shares.

One of the more interesting things I've been reading about the polling recently is that during the European elections virtually all of the polling companies overpolled Labour and underpolled the Conservatives. None anticipated the UKIP success. I would have expected that all the companies have adjusted their methodologies, but it will nonetheless be interesting to see where the popular vote does fall and how accurate the polling companies are this cycle.

The BBC also has a thingy where you can plug in percentages and see the estimated number of seats they'd win. I did it and even with these crappy figures for Labour, they'd still have a 120+ seat advantage over the Tories.

This poll is kinda confusing, but lets see how it works.

I think the Tories will take away seats from Labor and a few from the Lib Dems if they are really polling at the numbers they are polling at now. The Lib Dems always seem to under perform in general elections. It seems British are willing to trust them for municipal elections but not the country's federal political leadership. I am betting they will fade yet again. I'm not sure about the UKIP. They were under polled tremendously during the European elections and were the big story of the election cycle when all the results came in. I will be watching their results closely when they come in to see if they have been underestimated yet again.

I'm not sure about the UKIP. I don't expect them to win any seats at all, but I think they they can take enough away from the Tory candidates to help the LibDems or possibly Labour candidates.

The popular vote seems very close for Labour to still be winning as big as they are in the Parliament.

Gooooo gerrymandering!