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  UK - Parliament - Popular Vote
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United Kingdom > House of Commons > Popular Vote
OfficeHouse of Commons
Type Control Indicator
Filing Deadline April 11, 2005 - 12:00pm
Polls Open May 05, 2005 - 01:00am
Polls Close May 05, 2005 - 04:00pm
Term Start May 17, 2005 - 12:00pm
Term End May 17, 2010 - 12:00pm
ContributorPicimpalious
Last ModifiedNothing wrong, just gone July 20, 2006 10:04pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description Important note: Polling times set to CST equiviliant of BST, polling stations open 7:00am BST (1:00am CST) and close 10:00pm BST (4:00pm CST).

The Prime Minister has announced the date for the general election as Thursday 5 May 2005. Parliament will be dissolved on Monday 11 April and will return on Wednesday 11 May. At 5pm on the day of dissolution all those who are MPs will cease to be MPs.

The State Opening of Parliament will be on Tuesday 17 May.

Key Party Leaders:
Tony Blair (Labour)
Michael Howard (Conservatives)
Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrats)
MAP
KEY RACE? 0.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/06/2003 05/05/2005
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Labour Party 9 6 ----
Conservative Party 1 1 ----
Leaning Call: Labour Party (87.50%)
Weighted Call: Labour Party (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
05/02/2003 04/25/2005

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) Labour Party Conservative Party Liberal Democrats UK Independence Party Scottish National Party Green Party of England & Wales Democratic Unionist Party
PartyLabour Conservative Liberal Democrat UK Independence Scottish National Green Democratic Unionist
Website
Uncertified Votes9,562,122 (35.27%) 8,772,598 (32.36%) 5,981,874 (22.07%) 603,298 (2.23%) 412,267 (1.52%) 257,758 (0.95%) 241,856 (0.89%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -789,524 (-2.91%) -3,580,248 (-13.21%) -8,958,824 (-33.05%) -9,149,855 (-33.75%) -9,304,364 (-34.32%) -9,320,266 (-34.38%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (22 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg34.68%-- 34.45%-- 19.82%-- 2.15%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
MORI 
04/21/05-04/25/05
36.00% -- 34.00% -- 23.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
04/05/05-04/05/05
36.00% 1.0 36.00% 2.0 21.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ICM Research 
04/01/05-04/03/05
37.00% -- 34.00% -- 21.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
MORI 
04/01/05-04/03/05
34.00% 3.0 39.00% 2.0 21.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Populus 
04/01/05-04/03/05
37.00% 1.0 35.00% 1.0 19.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
03/21/05-03/24/05
35.00% -- 34.00% -- 22.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
IND Monsieur
D O'Neill Fan
D Brandon
I MD Indy
R SC-Conservative
D Andy
Laf-W Craverguy
LD Liberal
D InspectorMorse
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name British National Party Plaid Cymru Sinn Féin Ulster Unionist Party Social Democratic and Labour Party Independent Respect Unity Coalition
PartyBritish National Plaid Cymru Sinn Féin Ulster Unionist Social Democratic and Labour Independent Respect
Website [Website]
Uncertified Votes192,746 (0.71%) 174,838 (0.65%) 174,530 (0.64%) 127,414 (0.47%) 125,626 (0.46%) 122,000 (0.45%) 68,094 (0.25%)
Margin-9,369,376 (-34.56%) -9,387,284 (-34.63%) -9,387,592 (-34.63%) -9,434,708 (-34.80%) -9,436,496 (-34.81%) -9,440,122 (-34.82%) -9,494,028 (-35.02%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (22 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
MORI 
04/21/05-04/25/05
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
04/05/05-04/05/05
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ICM Research 
04/01/05-04/03/05
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
MORI 
04/01/05-04/03/05
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Populus 
04/01/05-04/03/05
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
03/21/05-03/24/05
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D Bob
DL Some say...
Laf-W Craverguy
DL Some say...
VIEW 14 MORE CANDIDATES

EVENTS
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VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Apr 24, 2005 12:00am News Tory fury as BBC sends hecklers to bait Howard  Article Imperator 
Mar 31, 2005 05:00am Poll Labour, Tories Dead Even In Britain  Article Chase McFadden 
Feb 25, 2005 07:25am Poll Labour, Tories Almost Tied In Britain  Article Chase McFadden 
Feb 24, 2005 01:00pm News Labour Down, Tories Gain In Britain  Article *crickets chirp* 
Jan 30, 2005 12:00am Poll Tories Closing in on Labour  Article Chase McFadden 
Jan 23, 2004 12:00am Poll 40pc: Tories hit 11-year high  Article User 13 

DISCUSSION
[View All
71
Previous Messages]
 
D:1573O'Neill Fan ( 8.1417 points)
Thu, March 31, 2005 06:52:19 PM UTC0:00
CR are a new firm. They poll for the Sindy and weight a lot. My suspicion is that they overestimate Labour by about 2 to 4 pts. Interestingly that's about the amount YouGov underrepresent Labour due to their methodology under low income voters without internet acess.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Thu, March 31, 2005 09:31:08 PM UTC0:00
Tom, where did you get the polls from? I really suggest putting a link in poll entries.

 
I:1123Chase McFadden ( 71.6261 points)
Thu, March 31, 2005 10:42:07 PM UTC0:00
angus reid

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Thu, March 31, 2005 10:58:55 PM UTC0:00
Guesundheit.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Sun, April 3, 2005 12:14:36 AM UTC0:00
Parliamentary elections are about seats, not votes. Labour has a huge seat margin right now, it would take a landslide of epic proportions to bring them down, even if the Tories came close in the popular vote.

 
D:215User 215 ( 720.3858 points)
Sun, April 3, 2005 08:42:29 AM UTC0:00
CanadianRyan is right. I have scene cases where the opposition gets the majority of the votes comfortably but because the incumbant Governments seat-margin was that high, they still won easily.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 07:52:23 AM UTC0:00
All 5 major polls are showing some movement from Labour to Tory.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 08:41:14 AM UTC0:00
Also, similar to early voting here in the states there will be postal voting in the UK. This will begin in about 2 weeks.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 05:42:55 PM UTC0:00
Does anybody know a site that lists party slates? I've been unable to find one.

 
D:1532Ben ( 407.0144 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 06:38:27 PM UTC0:00
I don't believe they are all set yet. The final candidate lists are to be set in the next few days and then published.

 
D:1RP ( 3311.3784 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 06:55:34 PM UTC0:00
" there will be postal voting in the UK" - User 13

Sounds dangerous.

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 07:17:17 PM UTC0:00
Also, people have been switching parties for this election. So we don't if the people running are running in the same party they were last time.

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 07:27:22 PM UTC0:00
"I don't believe they are all set yet. The final candidate lists are to be set in the next few days and then published." - Ben

That won't leave us much time. If we want to get all seats up in time for the election, those of us interested in adding them should divide them up to make sure all gets entered.

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 07:31:58 PM UTC0:00
True....I was wondering, who has entered the most UK Parliament races so far?

Useless contribution? Just wondering :)

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 07:48:09 PM UTC0:00
Useless when you can't enter them this time around.

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 07:56:33 PM UTC0:00
Oh, I could, if you weren't paraniod that I would delete everything.

So, let me ask, are you saying that the past elections I entered are useless?

 
Un:352Ralphie (12176.8838 points)
Wed, April 6, 2005 08:14:29 PM UTC0:00
Totally.

 
D:1573O'Neill Fan ( 8.1417 points)
Thu, April 7, 2005 09:52:40 PM UTC0:00
There's a site (electoralcalcus.co.uk IIRC) that works out how many seats each party would get with different vote shares.

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Fri, April 8, 2005 02:58:55 AM UTC0:00
One of the more interesting things I've been reading about the polling recently is that during the European elections virtually all of the polling companies overpolled Labour and underpolled the Conservatives. None anticipated the UKIP success.

I would have expected that all the companies have adjusted their methodologies, but it will nonetheless be interesting to see where the popular vote does fall and how accurate the polling companies are this cycle.

 
D:215User 215 ( 720.3858 points)
Fri, April 8, 2005 06:15:54 AM UTC0:00
The BBC also has a thingy where you can plug in percentages and see the estimated number of seats they'd win. I did it and even with these crappy figures for Labour, they'd still have a 120+ seat advantage over the Tories.

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Fri, April 8, 2005 09:51:40 PM UTC0:00
This poll is kinda confusing, but lets see how it works.
What do you think will be the likely scenario (vote for mulitple)?
Lib Dems take away from Labor 6 (42.85%)
Torries take away from Labor 5 (35.71%)
Lib Dems take away from Torries 1 (7.14%)
UKIP takes votes away from Torries 1 (7.14%)
Other scenario, explain below. 1 (7.14%)
Labor gains 0 (0%)
Torries take away from Lib Dems 0 (0%)
13 Votes Cast
View User Votes
Polls Close April 15, 2005 12:00am

 
I:13User 13 ( 1518.3322 points)
Sat, April 9, 2005 07:31:42 AM UTC0:00
I think the Tories will take away seats from Labor and a few from the Lib Dems if they are really polling at the numbers they are polling at now. The Lib Dems always seem to under perform in general elections. It seems British are willing to trust them for municipal elections but not the country's federal political leadership. I am betting they will fade yet again.

I'm not sure about the UKIP. They were under polled tremendously during the European elections and were the big story of the election cycle when all the results came in. I will be watching their results closely when they come in to see if they have been underestimated yet again.

 
DL:1025Some say... ( 6043.1475 points)
Sat, April 9, 2005 09:56:30 PM UTC0:00
I'm not sure about the UKIP.

I don't expect them to win any seats at all, but I think they they can take enough away from the Tory candidates to help the LibDems or possibly Labour candidates.

 
D:1656The Sunset Provision ( 1384.6633 points)
Fri, May 6, 2005 08:29:43 AM UTC0:00
The popular vote seems very close for Labour to still be winning as big as they are in the Parliament.

 
Pp:243FreedomDemocrat ( 422.8084 points)
Fri, May 6, 2005 06:40:28 PM UTC0:00
Gooooo gerrymandering!