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  KY Governor
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Kentucky > Governor
OfficeGovernor
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 02, 2007 - 04:00pm
Polls Open November 06, 2007 - 05:00am
Polls Close November 06, 2007 - 05:00pm
Term Start December 11, 2007 - 12:00pm
Term End December 13, 2011 - 12:00pm
Turnout 37.15% Registered 26.11% Total Population
ContributorUser 490
Last ModifiedRBH April 24, 2008 11:22am
Data Sources[Link]

www.kentucky.com
Description KY Constitution ..."The Governor and the Lieutenant Governor shall commence the execution of the duties of their offices on the fifth Tuesday succeeding their election, and shall continue in the execution thereof until a successor shall have qualified."
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2003
NameErnie Fletcher Votes596,284 (55.04%)
Term12/09/2003 - 12/11/2007 Margin109,125 (+10.07%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2011
NameSteve Beshear Votes464,245 (55.72%)
Term12/13/2011 - 12/08/2015 Margin170,211 (+20.43%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
May 22, 2007 KY Governor - R Primary Ernie Fletcher
May 22, 2007 KY Governor - D Primary Steve Beshear
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.4443998337 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
06/26/2005 11/06/2007
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Steve Beshear 7 18 20 19
Ernie Fletcher 2 ------
Leaning Call: Steve Beshear (98.90%)
Weighted Call: Steve Beshear (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
05/23/2007 11/04/2007

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (I) Gov. Ernie Fletcher  
PartyDemocratic Republican  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Uncertified Votes619,552 (58.71%) 435,773 (41.29%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -183,779 (-17.41%)  
Predict Avg.55.76% 41.74%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (18 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg53.41%-- 38.61%--  
Survey USA 
11/02/07-11/04/07
59.00% 1.0 39.00% 3.0
Rasmussen Reports 
11/01/07-11/01/07
54.00% 3.0 39.00% 4.0
Survey USA 
10/27/07-10/29/07
60.00% 2.0 36.00% 2.0
Bluegrass Polling Company 
10/26/07-10/29/07
56.00% 1.0 33.00% 2.0
Research 2000 
10/22/07-10/24/07
55.00% 1.0 40.00% 1.0
Survey USA 
10/20/07-10/22/07
58.00% 2.0 38.00% 2.0
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R PragCon 3.0
  Democracy for America
  Lexington Herald-Leader
  Louisville Courier Journal
LBT Silver Dime
  National Rifle Association (NRA)
R SC-Conservative
FWP CBlock941
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 05, 2007 06:00am News Ten Commandments posted in Ky. Capitol on eve of election  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Nov 04, 2007 04:00pm Blog Entry Kentucky GOP Pushing Anti-Gay Message In Final Days Of Gov Race  Article -- 
Sep 10, 2007 09:00pm Strategy Ky. Governor Tries To Win Second Term  Article RP 
Aug 17, 2007 04:00pm News GOP ad shows Beshear as gambler  Article -- 
Jul 09, 2007 01:00pm News N. Ky. can make or break Fletcher, so he's frequent visitor and backer  Article CBlock941 
Jul 06, 2007 01:25pm News Gubernatorial hopeful Beshear throws reception  Article CBlock941 

DISCUSSION
[View All
232
Previous Messages]
 
D:23User #23 ( 1865.1116 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 02:21:34 AM UTC0:00
A big part of this is likely the fact that Survey USA basically forces all respondents to pick a candidate and Insider Advantage doesn't. Thus, right after Beshear's primary win, he received the lion's share of what would usually be termed the "undecided" vote. Meanwhile, Fletcher has gone from 34% then to 38% now.

 
I:681excelsior ( 1819.1344 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 02:26:37 AM UTC0:00
Either that or people are learning that Beshear is more liberal than the average Kentucky Democrat.

 
D:2064TX DEM ( 3224.4231 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 02:37:08 AM UTC0:00
This is very dissapointing if true, but I still think Beshear will pull through.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 02:44:28 AM UTC0:00
An imcumbent governor polling at 38% is supposed to be cause for concern for his opponent?

 
D:239ArmyDem ( 5910.5693 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 03:35:49 AM UTC0:00
Yeah. Who here thinks damaged goods like Fletcher is going to pick up those undecided voters? All the polling consistently has Fletcher in the "dead zone" for incumbents, despite the head-to-head differences.

excelsior: So the partisan indicator suggests that IA is a slightly pro-Dem pollster?

According to the limited number of polls on the site. I don't know enough about them to attest to their leanings, but Insider Advantage is run by Matt Towery (R).

 
REFS:83-- ( 1800.0782 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 07:36:26 AM UTC0:00
excelsior: If so, Fletcher has come a long way in a couple of months

A sad commentary on the Kentucky voters.

 
L:1795FBL ( 789.6291 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 10:26:05 AM UTC0:00
This race is far from over. We'll have to see how this pans out after labor day. I'd presume Beshear is favored as of yet but can anyone really put this in the bag? I think not.

 
AKI:18*crickets chirp* ( 1059.8746 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 06:44:36 PM UTC0:00
ArmyDem: Yeah. Who here thinks damaged goods like Fletcher is going to pick up those undecided voters? All the polling consistently has Fletcher in the "dead zone" for incumbents, despite the head-to-head differences.

Not I.

Then again, I thought Baldacci was an absolute goner last year for the exact same reason: sub-40 polling.

 
I:31Default User ( 1568.2518 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 07:22:09 PM UTC0:00
Weren't there several independent candidates in Maine though?

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 07:30:33 PM UTC0:00
Yes, ex-Democrat Barbara Merrill got into the low 20s and the Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche got approximately 10%, both were seen as primarily taking from Baldacci. Merrill actually came first among registered independents, barely defeating Baldacci, if you believe the exit polls. The unique nature of that race made it possible for an incumbent polling below 40% to win...this is one-on-one D vs. R so Fletcher has still got his work cut out for him.

 
D:1778Buddy ( 1504.2893 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 08:38:05 PM UTC0:00
I still think that Beshear will be able to pull it off, but I've had trouble believing that he'd win by the wide margins some had expected.

 
D:917NYDem Junior ( 1973.3054 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 08:49:14 PM UTC0:00
I'd argue that Merrill and LaMarche were taking a bit from Woodcock. However, Woodcock would have definitely pulled ahead had it been a 3-legged race.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 09:27:08 PM UTC0:00
NYDem Junior: I'd argue that Merrill and LaMarche were taking a bit from Woodcock.

They definitely took a bit from him, but I think most believe that they hurt the left-leaning Gov. Baldacci more than Woodcock. Merrill in particular probably did pull away some voters who didn't want to vote Baldacci but felt Woodcock was too conservative.

Unless you were just using that as a set-up for another cheesy Woodcock joke.

 
D:917NYDem Junior ( 1973.3054 points)
Thu, July 12, 2007 10:12:17 PM UTC0:00
Yeah, I pretty much was, but your analysis is dead on nonetheless.

 
AKI:18*crickets chirp* ( 1059.8746 points)
Fri, July 13, 2007 12:07:30 AM UTC0:00
Monsieur: Yes, ex-Democrat Barbara Merrill got into the low 20s and the Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche got approximately 10%, both were seen as primarily taking from Baldacci.

Merrill's surge did not come until the final weeks of the campaign (7% on SUSA's 9/26 poll; 12% on SUSA's 10/22 poll; 21% on SUSA's 11/04 poll). LaMarche significantly underpolled as well.

Early polling indeed showed this to be a two-person race. One in which Baldacci was performing miserably in.

So, any third party candidates running here in Kentucky this year?

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Fri, July 13, 2007 12:39:01 AM UTC0:00
*crickets chirp*: So, any third party candidates running here in Kentucky this year?

I don't think so, which is exactly my point. With decent third-party candidates it is conceivable that Fletcher could win reelection with 38%. Because I think this is just a D vs. R race (for now), it makes it much more difficult.

 
R:1153J.R. ( 744.6801 points)
Fri, July 13, 2007 01:02:30 AM UTC0:00
Yeah, in November this race won't be close.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Wed, July 18, 2007 02:42:36 AM UTC0:00
Anyone think that Insider Advantage poll was an outlier? I know that they released a poll somewhat recently showing a 31% approval rating for Lindsey Graham, and nobody believes that.

 
R:194ScottĀ³ ( 8016.0796 points)
Wed, July 18, 2007 06:58:00 AM UTC0:00
I trust SUSA above anyone else.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Wed, July 18, 2007 07:05:01 AM UTC0:00
The interesting thing is that Fletcher's numbers are totally consistent in all polls from the various companies - mid-30s. It's Beshear's numbers that are violently fluctuating. I think, as User #23 said above, SurveyUSA is pushing the undecideds harder to pick someone, and virtually ALL the undecideds are going with Beshear over Fletcher when pushed. Probably not surprising when you consider how scandal-tarred Fletcher is.

 
D:2064TX DEM ( 3224.4231 points)
Wed, July 18, 2007 09:49:27 AM UTC0:00
SurveyUSA's method is better in my opinion. Afterall in the voting booth, you can't put "Undecided".

 
REFS:83-- ( 1800.0782 points)
Wed, July 18, 2007 07:32:52 PM UTC0:00
59-36. It's good to see that most Kentuckians haven't lost their minds.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Thu, July 19, 2007 04:52:55 AM UTC0:00
Too bad one of the ones that has is the state's junior senator.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Thu, July 19, 2007 05:46:59 AM UTC0:00
I'd love to win this one, since we're going to lose Louisiana.

 
D:1868Stumbo for Senate ( 515.7283 points)
Sat, August 4, 2007 11:12:31 PM UTC0:00
Beshear is beginning to talk about the Ten Commandments... this will be a very contentious race.