A big part of this is likely the fact that Survey USA basically forces all respondents to pick a candidate and Insider Advantage doesn't. Thus, right after Beshear's primary win, he received the lion's share of what would usually be termed the "undecided" vote. Meanwhile, Fletcher has gone from 34% then to 38% now.

Either that or people are learning that Beshear is more liberal than the average Kentucky Democrat.

This is very dissapointing if true, but I still think Beshear will pull through.

An imcumbent governor polling at 38% is supposed to be cause for concern for his opponent?

Yeah. Who here thinks damaged goods like Fletcher is going to pick up those undecided voters? All the polling consistently has Fletcher in the "dead zone" for incumbents, despite the head-to-head differences. So the partisan indicator suggests that IA is a slightly pro-Dem pollster? According to the limited number of polls on the site. I don't know enough about them to attest to their leanings, but Insider Advantage is run by Matt Towery (R).

If so, Fletcher has come a long way in a couple of months A sad commentary on the Kentucky voters.

This race is far from over. We'll have to see how this pans out after labor day. I'd presume Beshear is favored as of yet but can anyone really put this in the bag? I think not.

Yeah. Who here thinks damaged goods like Fletcher is going to pick up those undecided voters? All the polling consistently has Fletcher in the "dead zone" for incumbents, despite the head-to-head differences. Not I. Then again, I thought Baldacci was an absolute goner last year for the exact same reason: sub-40 polling.

Weren't there several independent candidates in Maine though?

Yes, ex-Democrat Barbara Merrill got into the low 20s and the Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche got approximately 10%, both were seen as primarily taking from Baldacci. Merrill actually came first among registered independents, barely defeating Baldacci, if you believe the exit polls. The unique nature of that race made it possible for an incumbent polling below 40% to win...this is one-on-one D vs. R so Fletcher has still got his work cut out for him.

I still think that Beshear will be able to pull it off, but I've had trouble believing that he'd win by the wide margins some had expected.

I'd argue that Merrill and LaMarche were taking a bit from Woodcock. However, Woodcock would have definitely pulled ahead had it been a 3-legged race.

I'd argue that Merrill and LaMarche were taking a bit from Woodcock. They definitely took a bit from him, but I think most believe that they hurt the left-leaning Gov. Baldacci more than Woodcock. Merrill in particular probably did pull away some voters who didn't want to vote Baldacci but felt Woodcock was too conservative. Unless you were just using that as a set-up for another cheesy Woodcock joke.

Yeah, I pretty much was, but your analysis is dead on nonetheless.

Yes, ex-Democrat Barbara Merrill got into the low 20s and the Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche got approximately 10%, both were seen as primarily taking from Baldacci. Merrill's surge did not come until the final weeks of the campaign (7% on SUSA's 9/26 poll; 12% on SUSA's 10/22 poll; 21% on SUSA's 11/04 poll). LaMarche significantly underpolled as well. Early polling indeed showed this to be a two-person race. One in which Baldacci was performing miserably in. So, any third party candidates running here in Kentucky this year?

So, any third party candidates running here in Kentucky this year? I don't think so, which is exactly my point. With decent third-party candidates it is conceivable that Fletcher could win reelection with 38%. Because I think this is just a D vs. R race (for now), it makes it much more difficult.

Yeah, in November this race won't be close.

Anyone think that Insider Advantage poll was an outlier? I know that they released a poll somewhat recently showing a 31% approval rating for Lindsey Graham, and nobody believes that.

I trust SUSA above anyone else.

The interesting thing is that Fletcher's numbers are totally consistent in all polls from the various companies - mid-30s. It's Beshear's numbers that are violently fluctuating. I think, as User #23 said above, SurveyUSA is pushing the undecideds harder to pick someone, and virtually ALL the undecideds are going with Beshear over Fletcher when pushed. Probably not surprising when you consider how scandal-tarred Fletcher is.

SurveyUSA's method is better in my opinion. Afterall in the voting booth, you can't put "Undecided".

59-36. It's good to see that most Kentuckians haven't lost their minds.

Too bad one of the ones that has is the state's junior senator.

I'd love to win this one, since we're going to lose Louisiana.

Beshear is beginning to talk about the Ten Commandments... this will be a very contentious race.