Missouri voted for the winner all but twice in the 20th century: 1904 (Alton Parker over TR) and 1956 (Stevenson over Eisenhower).

I thought Missouri had voted for Democrat Alton Parker in 1904. I checked; I appear to be wrong.

They missed McKinley in 1900, but I don't believe that actually counts as the '20th century.'

After a few days of thought, i've decided that Matt Blunt accidentally left a huge present for Jay Nixon. By basically claiming "We did everything we wanted"... one can counter that with "There's more to do", while solidifying themselves on the whole change issue. Republican candidates will probably forget who Blunt is after August, but they will have to answer to what they would do differently than Blunt and what they would keep in place. I will note that Blunt did do a pretty amusing thing to Steelman's hopes by waiting until she announced her own bid before leaving, making her switch races in just four days and probably making her seem less decisive than before.

Thanks for the gift, Boy Blunt!

Rasmussen Reports poll, February 11, likely voters, MoE ± 4.5%: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_governor_elections/election_2008_missouri_governor Nixon (D): 46% Steelman (R): 35% Nixon (D): 48% Hulshof (R): 30%

Not a great starting point for Hulshof, but when you consider that even ex-felons (like Al Hanson in 2002) can get over 35% as a Republican.. he'll move up.

Rasmussen Reports 3/24 500 likely voters, +/- 4.5% Nixon: 46% Steelman: 39% Nixon: 48% Hulshof: 37%

But they didn't poll for a Christina Anderson/Jen Sievers matchup. Bias! Nixon v. Steelman would be interesting since Jay Nixon was elected Attorney General in 1992 by defeating Sarah Steelman's husband David.

Survey USA 5/16 - 5/19 1,523 likely voters, +/- 2.5% Nixon: 57% Hulshof: 33% Nixon: 58% Steelman: 33%

Fantastic. It's not even competitive. The Missouri GOP has a good few years beginning in 2000 or so.

Nixon at 58% would be superb, since he won 59%, 60%, and 60% in three candidacies over unknowns for Attorney General. This could end up around 55/45 Nixon.

Rasmussen Reports, likely voters, 6/3/2008. +/-4%, http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_governor_elections/missouri/election_2008_missouri_governor Nixon (D): 54% (+3%) Hulshof (R): 34% (-1%) Nixon (D): 56% (+5%) Steelman (R): 34% (-1%)

Um, wow.

Rasmussen Reports, like voters, 7/7/2008, +/-4.5%, http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_governor_elections/missouri/election_2008_missouri_governor Nixon (D): 49% (-5%) Hulshof (R): 38% (+4%) Nixon (D): 46% (-10%) Steelman (R): 37% (+3%) I'm thinking Rasmussen's 6/3 poll was an outlier. These are very similar to their 3/24 poll results.

Hasn't SurveyUSA had Nixon around 55% multiple times? But it's nice that Steelman and Hulshof are approaching 40% since they're running ads on TV now

Public Policy Polling, likely voters, 7/2-5/2008, +/-3.6%, http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_7091.pdf (pdf) Nixon (D): 47% Hulshof (R): 37% Nixon (D): 44% Steelman (R): 39%

Research 2000 poll, July 7-10, likely voters, MoE ± 3.5%: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/7F936B896CC16CE08625748600120B36?OpenDocument Nixon (D): 52% Hulshof (R): 35% Nixon (D): 53% Steelman (R): 34%

SurveyUSA, likely voters, 7/29-31/2008, +/-2.6%, http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7e8e4efd-dafd-41b5-8e8c-ed974ddfb1c6 Jay Nixon (D): 48% Kenny Hulshof (R): 42% Jay Nixon (D): 50% Sarah Steelman (R): 41%

I'm not buying a 38D/36R sample.. seems slightly too high for Republicans

I'm not buying a 38D/36R sample.. seems slightly too high for Republicans I don't know why, Missouri generally favors Republicans. It swings the other way some years, but it is usually a few points in favor of the GOP.

I think it'll be closer than that as well, though I suspect Nixon will pull this off, and he'll be pulling it off against Hulshof.

No Palin effect here, thankfully. Missouri Dems are on the rise!

Kenny's not gonna win. Missouri is going to be unique in that Obama will probably run behind the entire statewide ticket. Although 51/46 isn't all that bad a place to be in for Obama. Especially when you consider that he's not yanking resources out of the state like Kerry did.

Only four years after taking back this office, we are two months away from being swept out of power. And this is a bellweather state. Mercy!