Poll Average Details- NJ US Senate - 2002-11-05 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Frank Lautenberg Robert TorricelliDouglas R. "Doug" Forrester Ted Glick Elizabeth Macron Greg Pason Norman E. Wahner
Zogby International11/4X 1.00000   55.0000 - 0.8870 bias 42.0000 - 0.0434 bias        
Quinnipiac University11/3X 0.98333   50.0000 - 1.0754 bias 39.0000 - -0.2682 bias 2.0000 - 1.2442 bias      
Research 200011/2X 0.96667   52.0000 - 1.1463 bias 40.0000 - 0.1379 bias        
Survey USA10/29X 0.90000   51.0000 - 0.5274 bias 41.0000 - 0.3265 bias        
New York Times10/24X 0.81667   48.0000 - 1.0972 bias 36.0000 - -0.5502 bias        
Mason-Dixon10/24X 0.81667   47.0000 - 0.4277 bias 40.0000 - 0.8543 bias        
Eagleton Poll (Rutgers Univ.)10/19X 0.73333   47.0000 - 2.5840 bias 42.0000 - -2.6758 bias        
Fairleigh Dickinson University10/15X 0.66667   48.0000 - -0.3787 bias 41.0000 - 0.7776 bias        
A&A Research10/5X 0.50000   52.0000 - -3.4200 bias 45.0000 - 4.0659 bias 1.0000 - -0.1506 bias 1.0000 - 0.4056 bias 1.0000 - 0.8721 bias  
Mellman Group (D)10/3X 0.46667   44.0000 - 3.6270 bias 33.0000 - -2.5182 bias        
TOTAL 48.983317 40.018797 0.888879 0.594400 0.127900 0.000000