Poll Average Details- French National Assembly - Bouches du Rhône - 5th Circonscription - 2012-06-10 04:55:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Marie-Arlette Carlotti Renaud Muselier Jean-Pierre Baumann Frédéric Dutoit Hubert Fayard Michèle Rubirola Chantal Sebag Ahmed Azouaou Mylène Gugliotta François Franceschi Nathalie Malhole Junie Ciccione Michelle Alphonse Corinne Raynaud Richard Bonacase Frédéric Boeuf-Salor Hélène Coulomb
IFOP5/30X 1.00000   34.0000 - -1.0973 bias 36.0000 - 1.7282 bias 13.5000 - -0.9238 bias 8.5000 - 0.3098 bias 0.0000 - -4.6177 bias 3.5000 - 0.4142 bias 1.0000 - -1.9815 bias 0.0000 - -0.6030 bias 0.0000 - -0.5546 bias 0.0000 - -0.5096 bias 0.0000 - -0.4847 bias 0.5000 - 0.1581 bias 0.0000 - -0.3305 bias 0.5000 - 0.3326 bias 0.0000 - -0.1098 bias   2.5000 - 2.9564 bias
TOTAL 35.097300 34.271800 14.423800 8.190200 4.617700 3.085800 2.981500 0.603000 0.554600 0.509600 0.484700 0.341900 0.330500 0.167400 0.109800 0.000000 -0.456400