Poll Average Details- IA US President - R Caucus - 2016-02-01 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Donald J. Trump Donald J. TrumpTed Cruz Donald J. TrumpMarco A. Rubio Donald J. TrumpBen Carson Donald J. TrumpJeb Bush Donald J. TrumpRand Paul Donald J. TrumpMike Huckabee Donald J. TrumpJohn Kasich Donald J. TrumpChris Christie Donald J. TrumpCarly Fiorina Donald J. TrumpRick Santorum Donald J. TrumpJim Gilmore Donald J. Trump Others Donald J. Trump
Emerson College1/31X 1.00000   27.3000 25.6000 21.6000 3.4000 3.8000 3.4000 4.7000 3.8000 3.2000 1.7000 0.5000    
Quinnipiac University1/31X 1.00000   31.0000 24.0000 17.0000 8.0000 4.0000 4.0000 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000  
Overtime Politics1/30X 0.98333   34.0000 25.0000 14.0000 7.0000 5.0000 3.0000   3.0000 1.0000 1.0000      
Selzer & Co.1/29X 0.96667   28.0000 23.0000 15.0000 10.0000 2.0000 5.0000 2.0000 2.0000 3.0000 2.0000 2.0000 0.0000  
Gravis Marketing1/27X 0.93333   31.0000 27.0000 13.0000 7.0000 6.0000 2.0000 2.0000 4.0000 3.0000 3.0000 1.0000    
Public Policy Polling1/27X 0.93333   31.0000 23.0000 14.0000 9.0000 4.0000 4.0000 4.0000 2.0000 2.0000 3.0000 1.0000 1.0000  
Marist Institute1/26X 0.91667   32.0000 25.0000 18.0000 8.0000 4.0000 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 0.0000 0.0000  
Monmouth University1/26X 0.91667   30.0000 23.0000 16.0000 10.0000 4.0000 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 2.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000  
American Research Group1/24X 0.88333   33.0000 26.0000 11.0000 7.0000 3.0000 4.0000 2.0000 3.0000 4.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000  
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News1/21X 0.83333   34.0000 23.0000 12.0000 7.0000 4.0000 6.0000 2.0000 2.0000 4.0000 1.0000 2.0000 0.0000  
YouGov1/21X 0.83333   39.0000 34.0000 13.0000 5.0000 1.0000 3.0000 0.0000 1.0000 2.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000  
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)1/20X 0.81667   37.0000 26.0000 14.0000 6.0000 3.0000 2.0000 3.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000  
Loras College1/18X 0.78333   26.4000 24.8000 12.8000 8.2000 5.8000 2.8000 3.2000 3.6000 2.8000 1.6000 1.0000    
TOTAL 31.727119 25.272034 14.851130 7.363559 3.824294 3.409040 2.607704 2.512994 2.369492 1.737571 1.035439 0.115226 0.000000