Poll Average Details- IL Governor - 2014-11-04 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Bruce Rauner Pat Quinn Chad Grimm Scott Summers Robert G. Chico Perez Mark Smith Ryan Sweeney Michael W. Scruggs Aaron Merreighn
Ogden & Fry11/2X 1.00000  X 1/2 48.6000 - 1.7435 bias 45.1000 - -3.2020 bias 6.3000 - 2.9498 bias            
Public Policy Polling11/2X 1.00000   45.0000 - -0.1800 bias 47.0000 - 1.1680 bias 3.0000 - 1.4191 bias            
McKeon & Associates10/29X 0.93333   42.0000 - -1.6375 bias 45.0000 - -0.6644 bias 4.0000 - 2.3133 bias            
We Ask America10/28X 0.91667   44.8000 - 0.7934 bias 49.5000 - -0.1888 bias 5.6000 - 1.2509 bias            
YouGov10/23X 0.83333   41.0000 - 0.0288 bias 45.0000 - 1.4134 bias              
Chicago Tribune10/21X 0.80000   45.0000 - -2.7654 bias 43.0000 - 3.1934 bias 4.0000 - 1.9891 bias            
Southern Illinois University10/17X 0.73333   42.4000 - -1.5962 bias 40.7000 - 0.8155 bias 3.0000 - 0.7199 bias            
University of Illinois at Springfield10/8X 0.58333   43.1000 - -0.4920 bias 41.3000 - 4.0616 bias              
Communication Express (R)9/30X 0.45000  X 1/2 42.5000 - 5.7541 bias 36.7000 - -6.9696 bias 5.0000 - 1.2281 bias            
Fabrizio Lee (R)9/29X 0.43333  X 1/2 39.0000 - -0.9836 bias 41.0000 - -0.6730 bias 5.0000 - 2.2446 bias            
Rasmussen Reports9/25X 0.36667   42.0000 - 1.5977 bias 44.0000 - 0.4180 bias              
Battleground Polling Group9/24X 0.35000   43.0000 - -3.5305 bias 43.0000 - 0.3917 bias 6.0000 - 3.1716 bias            
Global Strategy Group (D)9/7X 0.06667  X 1/2 40.0000 - -2.0582 bias 43.0000 - 2.9065 bias 5.0000 - 2.6764 bias            
TOTAL 43.936316 43.831887 2.559555 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000