Poll Average Details- AR Governor - 2006-11-07 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Mike Beebe	Asa Hutchinson	Rod Bryan	Jim Lendall	Vernon E. "Gene" Mason, Jr.	Michael Jones
Survey USA	11/5	X 1.00000		51.0000 - 0.5274 bias	42.0000 - 0.3265 bias	2.0000 - 1.6199 bias	2.0000 - 1.0702 bias
Zogby Interactive	10/27	X 0.85000		45.3000 - 0.0637 bias	48.2000 - 0.8374 bias
Opinion Research Associates Inc	10/26	X 0.83333		56.0000 - 4.3331 bias	38.0000 - -3.2528 bias	1.0000 - -0.9936 bias	1.0000 - 0.9911 bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/20	X 0.73333		49.0000 - 0.4180 bias	41.0000 - 1.5977 bias
Constituent Dynamics	10/17	X 0.68333		52.0000 - 1.7318 bias	39.0000 - -0.3437 bias	2.0000 - 0.0700 bias	2.0000 - 0.4563 bias
University of Arkansas	10/17	X 0.68333		51.0000 - 1.9662 bias	38.0000 - 2.3219 bias
Arkansas State University	10/11	X 0.58333		44.6000 - 5.6185 bias	30.5000 - -4.6712 bias
TOTAL				48.112096	40.432080	1.335205	0.791554	0.000000	0.000000