Poll Average Details- AZ US President - D Primary - 2004-02-03 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal John F. Kerry John F. KerryWesley Clark John F. KerryHoward Dean John F. KerryJoseph I. "Joe" Lieberman John F. KerryJohn Edwards John F. KerryRichard A. "Dick" Gephardt John F. KerryCarol Moseley Braun John F. KerryDennis J. Kucinich John F. KerryAl Sharpton John F. KerryRaymond "RayJ" Caplette John F. KerryLyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. John F. KerryWilliam J. "Bill" Wyatt John F. KerryFern Penna John F. KerryWilliam Barchilon John F. KerryDianne Barker John F. KerryKeith Brand John F. KerryEvelyn Vitullo John F. KerryHuda Muhammad John F. Kerry
Survey USA2/1X 1.00000   34.0000 28.0000 18.0000 7.0000 7.0000                          
Zogby International2/1X 1.00000   40.0000 27.0000 13.0000 6.0000 6.0000     1.0000                    
Los Angeles Times2/1X 1.00000   29.0000 22.0000 13.0000   8.0000                          
American Research Group1/31X 0.98333   32.0000 21.0000 10.0000 9.0000 11.0000     1.0000 0.0000                  
Arizona Republic1/29X 0.95000   27.0000 18.0000 13.0000 10.0000 8.0000                          
Behavior Research Center1/12X 0.66667   3.0000 26.0000 29.0000 6.0000 3.0000 4.0000 1.0000 1.0000 2.0000                  
Northern Arizona University12/9X 0.10000   8.0000 12.0000 22.0000 9.0000 0.0000 7.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000                  
TOTAL 28.581871 23.383041 15.388889 7.712766 7.266082 4.391304 1.130435 1.000000 0.761905 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000