Poll Average Details- HI District 1 - Special Election - 2010-05-22 22:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Charles K. Djou Ed Case Colleen Hanabusa Steve Tataii Jim Brewer Charles Collins Charles Kaui Jochanan Amsterdam Philmund "Phil" Lee Vinny Browne Douglas Crum Rafael "Del" Del Castillo John "Raghu" Giuffre Karl Moseley Kalaeloa Strode
Merriman River Group (MRG)5/7X 1.00000   39.5000 - 4.0053 bias 25.5000 - -2.9714 bias 25.5000 - -2.9714 bias                      
Ward Research4/28X 0.85000   36.0000 - -0.0776 bias 28.0000 - 0.6220 bias 22.0000 - 0.6220 bias                      
Harstad Strategic (D)4/26X 0.81667   36.0000 - -1.6540 bias 34.0000 - 3.5038 bias 20.0000 - 3.5038 bias                      
Research 20004/14X 0.61667   32.0000 - 0.1379 bias 29.0000 - 1.1463 bias 28.0000 - 1.1463 bias                      
TOTAL 35.500423 28.575953 23.352603 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000