Poll Average Details- KY US Senate - 2014-11-04 17:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Mitch McConnell Mitch McConnell	Alison Lundergan Grimes Alison Lundergan Grimes	David Patterson	Mike Maggard	Robert Ransdell	Shawna Sterling	Gregory D. Welch
Public Policy Polling	11/1	X 1.00000		53.0000 - -0.1800 bias	44.0000 - 1.1680 bias
Marist Institute	10/31	X 0.98333		50.0000 - -0.4397 bias	41.0000 - 0.7635 bias	5.0000 - 4.1685 bias
Survey USA	10/29	X 0.95000		48.0000 - 0.3265 bias	43.0000 - 0.5274 bias	3.0000 - 1.3296 bias
YouGov	10/23	X 0.85000		45.0000 - 0.0288 bias	39.0000 - 1.4134 bias	2.0000 - 3.6071 bias
Voter/Consumer Research (R)	10/21	X 0.81667	X 1/2	49.0000 - 4.2271 bias	41.0000 - -4.6564 bias	3.0000 - 0.1447 bias
Western Kentucky University	10/19	X 0.78333		45.0000 - -5.1846 bias	42.0000 - 4.6649 bias	5.0000 - 0.3120 bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/16	X 0.73333		52.0000 - 1.5977 bias	44.0000 - 0.4180 bias
Gravis Marketing	10/12	X 0.66667		50.0000 - 0.2608 bias	47.0000 - 1.1590 bias
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News	10/7	X 0.58333		45.0000 - -0.5021 bias	41.0000 - 1.0608 bias	3.0000 - 1.4422 bias
Mellman Group (D)	9/27	X 0.41667	X 1/2	40.0000 - -2.5182 bias	42.0000 - 3.6270 bias	3.0000 - 0.6331 bias
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)	9/7	X 0.08333	X 1/2	50.0000 - 0.4956 bias	42.0000 - -0.5207 bias	6.0000 - 1.3094 bias
TOTAL				48.759206	41.364495	1.554370	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000