Poll Average Details- IA US Senate - 2014-11-04 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Joni Ernst Joni ErnstBruce Braley Bruce BraleyRuth Smith Bob Quast Write-In Douglas Butzier Rick Stewart
Public Policy Polling11/3X 1.00000   48.0000 - -0.1800 bias 45.0000 - 1.1680 bias       1.0000 - 1.4191 bias 1.0000 - 2.9345 bias
Selzer & Co.10/31X 0.95000   51.0000 - -0.2736 bias 44.0000 - 1.0019 bias          
YouGov10/31X 0.95000   41.9000 - 0.0288 bias 42.9000 - 1.4134 bias          
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/30X 0.93333   49.0000 - 0.4312 bias 47.0000 - 0.8608 bias          
Rasmussen Reports10/30X 0.93333   48.0000 - 1.5977 bias 47.0000 - 0.4180 bias          
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/30X 0.93333   45.0000 - -0.5021 bias 44.0000 - 1.0608 bias          
Reuters/Ipsos10/29X 0.91667   45.0000 - 0.8563 bias 45.0000 - 3.1158 bias          
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)10/27X 0.88333  X 1/2 47.0000 - -2.3099 bias 47.0000 - 2.7672 bias          
Quinnipiac University10/27X 0.88333   49.0000 - -0.2682 bias 45.0000 - 1.0754 bias          
Loras College10/24X 0.83333   44.0000 - -1.2295 bias 45.0000 - 3.1867 bias          
Marist Institute10/22X 0.80000   49.0000 - -0.4397 bias 46.0000 - 0.7635 bias          
Monmouth University10/21X 0.78333   47.0000 - -0.9091 bias 46.0000 - 1.9679 bias          
Suffolk University10/14X 0.66667   47.0000 - -2.1317 bias 43.0000 - 1.6356 bias          
Morey Group (Lukens Company - R)10/7X 0.55000  X 1/2 37.9000 - -2.6061 bias 39.3000 - 4.7445 bias 0.2000 - -0.8844 bias 0.1000 - -0.3920 bias   0.1000 - -0.9184 bias 0.6000 - -0.8844 bias
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)10/3X 0.48333   50.0000 - 0.4956 bias 40.8000 - -0.5207 bias          
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)10/1X 0.45000  X 1/2 45.0000 - -1.6043 bias 44.0000 - 2.2053 bias          
Gravis Marketing9/30X 0.43333   50.0000 - 0.2608 bias 41.0000 - 1.1590 bias          
Harstad Strategic (D)9/25X 0.35000  X 1/2 42.0000 - -1.6540 bias 42.0000 - 3.5038 bias          
TOTAL 47.224151 43.071607 1.084400 0.492000 0.000000 -0.109051 -1.197090