Poll Average Details- AK US Senate - 2014-11-04 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Daniel S. "Dan" Sullivan Daniel S. "Dan" SullivanMark Begich Mark S. Fish Ted Gianoutsos Write-In Sidney Hill John Jaramillo Karen Perry Sean Godfrey
Public Policy Polling11/2X 1.00000   46.0000 - -0.1800 bias 45.0000 - 1.1680 bias 2.0000 - 1.4191 bias 2.0000 - 2.9345 bias          
Moore Information (R)10/28X 0.91667  X 1/2 42.0000 - 1.6091 bias 38.0000 - -0.6331 bias 4.0000 - 0.4516 bias            
Ivan Moore Research (D)10/26X 0.88333   42.2000 - -2.7841 bias 50.1000 - 4.3955 bias              
YouGov10/23X 0.83333   48.0000 - 0.0288 bias 44.0000 - 1.4134 bias              
Harstad Strategic (D)10/22X 0.81667  X 1/2 44.0000 - -1.6540 bias 44.0000 - 3.5038 bias 4.0000 - 1.2120 bias            
Hellenthal & Associates (R)10/21X 0.80000   39.2000 - -1.3267 bias 48.6000 - 2.2137 bias 2.8000 - -0.2902 bias 3.7000 - -1.7243 bias          
Rasmussen Reports10/12X 0.65000   48.0000 - 1.5977 bias 45.0000 - 0.4180 bias              
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/7X 0.56667   44.0000 - -0.5021 bias 40.0000 - 1.0608 bias 3.0000 - 1.4422 bias 1.0000 - 1.3894 bias          
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/6X 0.55000   50.0000 - 0.4312 bias 44.0000 - 0.8608 bias              
Dittman Research (R)9/17X 0.23333  X 1/2 49.0000 - 1.4877 bias 43.0000 - 0.2365 bias              
Hays Research Group (D)9/14X 0.18333   36.4000 - -2.4573 bias 40.6000 - 7.8027 bias              
TOTAL 45.081704 42.917409 2.072349 1.345470 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000