Poll Average Details- MO US Senate - 2012-11-06 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Claire McCaskill Todd Akin Jonathan Dine Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff Bernie Mowinski Charlie L. Bailey William Dean Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. Ted Kimzey
Survey USA11/3X 1.00000   51.0000 - 0.5274 bias 36.0000 - 0.3265 bias 8.0000 - 1.3296 bias            
YouGov11/3X 1.00000   52.0000 - 1.4134 bias 42.0000 - 0.0288 bias              
Public Policy Polling11/3X 1.00000   48.0000 - 1.1680 bias 44.0000 - -0.1800 bias 6.0000 - 1.4191 bias            
We Ask America10/30X 0.93333   48.6000 - -0.1888 bias 45.2000 - 0.7934 bias 6.2000 - 1.2509 bias            
Kiley & Company (D)10/25X 0.85000  X 1/2 53.0000 - 4.5519 bias 39.0000 - -1.1820 bias              
Mason-Dixon10/25X 0.85000   45.0000 - 0.4277 bias 43.0000 - 0.8543 bias 4.0000 - 0.2403 bias            
Rasmussen Reports10/17X 0.71667   51.0000 - 0.4180 bias 43.0000 - 1.5977 bias              
Harstad Strategic (D)10/17X 0.71667  X 1/2 47.0000 - 3.5038 bias 35.0000 - -1.6540 bias 8.0000 - 1.2120 bias            
Wenzel Strategies (R)10/13X 0.65000  X 1/2 44.7000 - -3.2645 bias 48.9000 - 4.5835 bias              
Chilenski Strategies (D)9/20X 0.26667   46.5000 - -0.2073 bias 47.5000 - 4.0840 bias              
TOTAL 48.259582 41.448511 5.190802 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000