Poll Average Details- IL - District 14 - 2010-11-02 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Randy Hultgren Bill Foster Bobby G. RoseDaniel J. Kairis Daniel J. Kairis Write-In Doug Marks
We Ask America10/31X 1.00000   50.3800 - 0.7934 bias 45.3400 - -0.1888 bias 4.2100 - 0.7078 bias    
Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates (D)10/12X 0.68333   43.0000 - -1.4053 bias 42.0000 - 3.5544 bias      
Benenson Strategy Group (D)10/6X 0.58333   38.0000 - -1.4207 bias 48.0000 - 2.2156 bias      
Tarrance Group (R)10/4X 0.55000  X 1/2 44.0000 - 1.0477 bias 38.0000 - -0.5219 bias 4.0000 - 1.0229 bias    
ccAdvertising (R)10/2X 0.51667   43.4000 - 4.4041 bias 35.4200 - -1.7906 bias      
TOTAL 44.104216 41.959627 3.388943 0.000000 0.000000