Poll Average Details- AR US Senate - 2010-11-02 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal John Boozman John BoozmanBlanche Lincoln Blanche LincolnTrevor Drown John Gray Write-In
Rasmussen Reports10/28X 1.00000   55.0000 - 1.5977 bias 36.0000 - 0.4180 bias      
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/19X 0.85000   55.0000 - 0.4312 bias 41.0000 - 0.8608 bias      
Talk Business10/14X 0.76667   49.0000 - -1.2463 bias 36.0000 - 0.3217 bias 4.0000 - 1.0886 bias 4.0000 - 1.3653 bias  
ccAdvertising (R)10/11X 0.71667   51.7100 - 4.4041 bias 37.1800 - -1.7906 bias      
Ipsos-Public Affairs9/19X 0.35000   53.0000 - -21.0260 bias 39.0000 - -19.3724 bias      
Mason-Dixon9/14X 0.26667   51.0000 - 0.8543 bias 34.0000 - 0.4277 bias 3.0000 - -0.0380 bias 1.0000 - -0.3342 bias  
TOTAL 55.209510 40.650211 2.944071 2.299087 0.000000