Poll Average Details- OR US Senate - 2008-11-04 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Jeff Merkley Steve NovickGordon Smith Gordon LeitchDave Brownlow Write-In
YouGov11/1X 1.00000   44.0000 - 1.4134 bias 43.0000 - 0.0288 bias    
Public Policy Polling10/30X 0.96667   51.0000 - 1.1680 bias 43.0000 - -0.1800 bias 4.0000 - 0.9162 bias  
Rasmussen Reports10/30X 0.96667   49.0000 - 0.4180 bias 46.0000 - 1.5977 bias    
Survey USA10/30X 0.96667   49.0000 - 0.5274 bias 42.0000 - 0.3265 bias 5.0000 - 0.9368 bias  
Riley Research Associates (R)10/20X 0.80000   36.0000 - 0.6395 bias 35.0000 - 1.1891 bias 4.0000 - 0.4141 bias  
Research 200010/15X 0.71667   47.0000 - 1.1463 bias 41.0000 - 0.1379 bias    
Grove Insight (D)10/9X 0.61667   41.0000 - 2.8547 bias 36.0000 - -1.0926 bias 3.0000 - -1.4870 bias  
DHM Research9/14X 0.20000   39.0000 - -2.0926 bias 42.0000 - 1.4489 bias 4.0000 - 1.0787 bias  
Benenson Strategy Group (D)9/9X 0.11667   43.0000 - 2.2156 bias 41.0000 - -1.4207 bias 6.0000 - 1.4296 bias  
TOTAL 44.445171 40.973980 3.725985 0.000000