Poll Average Details- AZ US Senate - 2012-11-06 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Jeff Flake Jeff FlakeRichard Carmona Richard CarmonaMarc Victor Don Manspeaker Steven Watts
Public Policy Polling11/3X 1.00000   51.0000 - -0.1800 bias 46.0000 - 1.1680 bias      
YouGov11/3X 1.00000   49.0000 - 0.0288 bias 42.0000 - 1.4134 bias      
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)10/21X 0.78333  X 1/2 41.0000 - -2.1911 bias 45.0000 - 3.6481 bias 5.0000 - 1.8042 bias    
Rasmussen Reports10/21X 0.78333   50.0000 - 1.5977 bias 44.0000 - 0.4180 bias      
Behavior Research Center10/10X 0.60000   40.0000 - -1.1021 bias 44.0000 - 1.2699 bias      
Harstad Strategic (D)10/9X 0.58333  X 1/2 43.0000 - -1.6540 bias 47.0000 - 3.5038 bias      
Tarrance Group (R)10/9X 0.58333  X 1/2 49.0000 - 1.0477 bias 43.0000 - -0.5219 bias      
GS Strategy Group (R)10/9X 0.58333  X 1/2 47.0000 - 2.7186 bias 41.0000 - -0.9260 bias      
Moore Information (R)9/26X 0.36667   43.0000 - 1.6091 bias 40.0000 - -0.6331 bias 4.0000 - 0.4516 bias    
Unknown (R)9/18X 0.23333  X 1/2 39.0000 - -0.0689 bias 44.0000 - -0.7894 bias      
TOTAL 46.617738 42.686685 3.366288 0.000000 0.000000