Poll Average Details- KY US Senate - 2008-11-04 17:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Mitch McConnell Daniel Essek	W. Bruce Lunsford W. Bruce Lunsford
YouGov	11/1	X 1.00000		49.0000 - 0.0288 bias	42.0000 - 1.4134 bias
Survey USA	11/1	X 1.00000		53.0000 - 0.3265 bias	45.0000 - 0.5274 bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/29	X 0.95000		51.0000 - 1.5977 bias	44.0000 - 0.4180 bias
Mason-Dixon	10/29	X 0.95000		47.0000 - 0.8543 bias	42.0000 - 0.4277 bias
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)	10/27	X 0.91667		47.0000 - -2.3099 bias	45.0000 - 2.7672 bias
Research 2000	10/21	X 0.81667		47.0000 - 0.1379 bias	43.0000 - 1.1463 bias
Voter/Consumer Research (R)	10/8	X 0.60000		47.0000 - 4.2271 bias	38.0000 - -4.6564 bias
TOTAL				48.377085	42.424098