Poll Average Details- MT US President - 2008-11-04 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal John McCain Mike HuckabeeBarack Obama Barack ObamaRon Paul Ralph Nader Bob Barr Cynthia McKinney Santa Claus Chuck Baldwin Jonathan E. Allen Rosa Clemente RaeDeen R. Heupel Amy Lou Wyatt
Public Policy Polling11/2X 1.00000   47.0000 - -0.1800 bias 48.0000 - 1.1680 bias 4.0000 - 0.9162 bias                  
YouGov11/1X 0.98333   54.0000 - 0.0288 bias 44.0000 - 1.4134 bias                    
American Research Group10/30X 0.95000   49.0000 - 0.7892 bias 46.0000 - -0.0031 bias                    
Research 200010/30X 0.95000   48.0000 - 0.1379 bias 44.0000 - 1.1463 bias                    
Rasmussen Reports10/29X 0.93333   50.0000 - 1.5977 bias 46.0000 - 0.4180 bias                    
Mason-Dixon10/25X 0.86667   48.0000 - 0.8543 bias 44.0000 - 0.4277 bias                    
Montana State University Billings10/20X 0.78333   40.2000 - -1.1286 bias 44.4000 - 0.9098 bias 4.2000 - 2.4038 bias 0.7000 - 0.0217 bias 1.0000 - 0.5258 bias              
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)9/23X 0.33333   54.0000 - 0.4312 bias 43.0000 - 0.8608 bias                    
TOTAL 48.203876 44.344466 2.518219 0.678300 0.474200 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000