Poll Average Details- AZ US President - 2008-11-04 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal John McCain John McCainBarack Obama Hillary ClintonCynthia McKinney Bob Barr Ralph Nader Write-In Chuck Baldwin Charles "CJ" Jay Jonathan E. Allen
YouGov11/1X 1.00000   50.0000 - 0.0288 bias 46.0000 - 1.4134 bias              
Research 200010/30X 0.96667   48.0000 - 0.1379 bias 47.0000 - 1.1463 bias              
American Research Group10/30X 0.96667   50.0000 - 0.7892 bias 46.0000 - -0.0031 bias              
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)10/28X 0.93333   53.0000 - 0.4312 bias 46.0000 - 0.8608 bias              
Mason-Dixon10/28X 0.93333   48.0000 - 0.8543 bias 44.0000 - 0.4277 bias              
Rasmussen Reports10/26X 0.90000   51.0000 - 1.5977 bias 46.0000 - 0.4180 bias              
Arizona State University10/26X 0.90000   46.0000 - -0.8570 bias 44.0000 - 1.2289 bias              
Myers Research & Strategic Services (D)10/24X 0.86667   48.0000 - -2.9732 bias 44.0000 - 3.6031 bias              
Zimmerman & Associates10/22X 0.83333   43.5000 - -1.0876 bias 41.5000 - 2.4176 bias              
TOTAL 48.776106 43.768194 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000