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  Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan
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Last EditedImperator  Nov 29, 2012 07:09pm
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News DateFriday, November 30, 2012 01:00:00 AM UTC0:0
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Raleigh, N.C. – Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn enters his re-election cycle as the most unpopular governor that PPP has measured, with only a quarter of his state’s voters approving of his job performance and nearly two-thirds disapproving. He starts out as a slight underdog in hypothetical match-ups against three unknown potential Republican challengers, getting no more than 40% of the vote. Should those candidates become better-known, however, Quinn would probably be in perilous position.

Quinn trails State Sen. Kirk Dillard by seven points (37-44), and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford by four (39-43), and leads rising star Congressman Aaron Schock by only a point (40-39). But 61-65% of voters have no opinion of the three would-be governors, so they have more to gain than does the incumbent.


Democrats would be best served, at least at this point, by nominating popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, of whom 48% have a positive opinion and only 32% a negative one, making her by far the best-liked and the second best-known of six candidates on either side of the aisle, after Quinn. She tops Dillard and Rutherford each by the same nine-point margin (46-37), and Schock by eight (46-38).

Doing not much better than Quinn is Bill Daley. He is surprisingly no better-known than the Republicans, but less popular, with a 12-24 favorability spread. He trails Dillard by two points and Rutherford by one, and tops Schock by five, but 25-30% are undecided.

Quinn is unpopular with Democratic primary voters (40-43 approval margin), and if he chose to plow ahead with his bid, he would trail Daley head-to-head by three points (37-34) and Madigan by a whopping 44 (64-20).

“Lisa Madigan is the big x factor in this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If she decides to run she’ll be a big favorite but otherwise Republicans should have a decent chance in this contest.”
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