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Nevada Polls May Understate Democratic Support
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| Contributor | The Sunset Provision |
| Last Edited | The Sunset Provision Oct 14, 2012 07:13pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Monday, October 15, 2012 01:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | The majority of public polls in the final month of the 2010 Nevada Senate race showed Republican Sharron Angle with a modest advantage over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Of course, the polls were wrong, and Reid won the race by nearly 6 percentage points. Silver State guru Jon Ralston thinks the same phenomenon may be occurring this year in Nevada, home to another intense Senate race -- and 6 highly-coveted electoral votes.
Ralston published a post Friday on his new blog, RalstonReports.com, entitled "Why most polls done in Nevada are garbage." Here's a brief excerpt:
Remember 2010. Nearly every poll you saw showed that Angle was going to win -- as did Angle's internals. And she lost by nearly 6 points. Six points!
The raw [voter registration] numbers this cycle are very similar in Clark County to what they were in 2008 -- about a 125,000-voter lead (it actually is going to be slightly larger this time.) The way it works is that the South makes up 70 percent of the vote, and if you don't take that into account in your poll, you won't show the kind of raw number lead that Democratic statewide candidates are likely to have (Obama's will be greater than Rep. Shelley Berkley's) that make Republican candidates chances less and less real.
Despite what all of those polls say, Romney's path to victory in Nevada now is much more problematic than any Republican will acknowledge.
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