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The July jobs report: Obama’s 255,000 problem
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | Jason |
| Last Edited | Jason Aug 05, 2011 07:39am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Media | Newspaper - Washington Post |
| News Date | Wednesday, August 3, 2011 01:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | The first Friday of every month has become a tough time at the White House, as the release of the monthly jobs report has generally provided grim news about the state of the economy.
Today’s report — detailing the number of jobs created and the current unemployment rate for July — is expected to be more of the same, with most analysts pegging a “good” month as job growth in excess of 100,000.
The political problem for President Obama? Even if 100,000 jobs are created, it will be less than half the number of jobs — 255,000, according to Republican economic consultant Matt McDonald — that need to be created every month for the unemployment rate to dip below 8 percent by Election Day 2012.
And there’s very little historical evidence of a president — of either party — winning a second term with unemployment at those heights.
In an op-ed for the Post earlier this week. Lawrence Summers, formerly an economics adviser to Obama, acknowledged that “it would be surprising if growth were rapid enough to reduce unemployment even to 8.5 percent by the end of 2012.” |
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