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One-Term Tom? Maybe Not!
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Race
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Jun 21, 2011 08:30pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Author | G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young |
| News Date | Wednesday, April 27, 2011 02:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | "The news hasn’t been good.
Indeed it’s been downright ominous. Tom Corbett’s political stock has taken a nosedive. Elected in a near landslide just five months ago, the voters now have gone sour on Pennsylvania’s new governor. Corbett gets an anemic 34 percent approval rating in the latest Public Policy Polling report. Worse yet, voters are having a serious case of buyer’s remorse, with most saying they wouldn’t vote for Corbett again if given the chance.
Clearly Tom Corbett has not made a good first impression on the voters. Wildly popular, he is not.
So is it time to start writing Corbett off as a fallen star, a failed politician, and a spent force?
Probably not! That’s because first impressions of new governors are usually not lasting impressions for most Pennsylvania voters. In fact, Corbett seems to be playing out a familiar script in his first year in office. With few exceptions, Pennsylvania governors in recent history have had a rocky firstyear in office, always fail to impress the voters that first year, and are always reelected three years later.
That’s right! Strangely enough, it doesn’t seem to matter how poorly a new governor does in his first year of office. That first year simply doesn’t forecast how successful he will be throughout the remainder of his term(s). Not only does the initial year in office not matter, but the evidence suggests a new governor may do better long term if he has a bumpy first year.
Since 1970, all but one modern governor has had a turbulent initial year in office—a year so tempestuous each of them was labeled a one termer early on. Yet each of them was also reelected comfortably. The only governor to have a tight reelection campaign, Dick Thornburgh, was also the only governor to have a solid first year." |
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