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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Pollster hegemony and 2010 conventional wisdom
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| Parent(s) |
PollingFirm
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| Contributor | COSDem |
| Last Edited | COSDem Aug 29, 2010 02:47pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Media | Website - Daily Kos |
| News Date | Sunday, August 29, 2010 08:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | One of my summer projects was to pore over three critical sources (Swing State Project, DC's Political Report, and the Wrap) and catalog every general election poll released in 2010.
There are a couple of ground rules that I employed: 1) General election polls only; 2) Polls were removed from the database when the nominees were known (so, no McCollum-Sink polls now exist in the database); 3) As a result of Markos' disassociation with Research 2000, and the rationale for doing so, I excluded their polls from the database, as well.
When all was said and tabulated, there were a total of 953 polls in the database. While I would never presume to say that this represents every poll made available for consumption during 2010 (I used three sources, but it doesn't mean I didn't miss one here and there), I would suspect that this is a pretty thorough cross-section of data.
How prolific has Rasmussen been in this cycle? Rasmussen was responsible for 407 of the polls in the database. Put another way: nearly 43% of all of the polls made available in 2010 have come from a single source.
At the time, I estimated the ratio at somewhere between 3-to-1 and 4-to-1. As it turns out, that was dead-on. There have been 142 Republican polls to just 47 Democratic polls.
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