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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2010?
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Race
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Jun 02, 2010 03:17pm |
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| Category | Speculative |
| Author | Fred Barnes |
| Media | Weekly News Magazine - Weekly Standard, The |
| News Date | Wednesday, June 2, 2010 09:15:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | "Republicans may have a better chance of winning the Senate than the House in the midterm election in November. And their prospects for taking over the Senate appear to be getting better by the day. At least that’s what polls indicate. But politics can be fickle and poll numbers fleeting. So nothing is guaranteed.
The good news for Republicans comes in two parts. First, they’re ahead in four of the six open Republican seats and tied in two. That’s a great improvement from, say, late last year. Second, in the 11 Democratic seats in play, they’re ahead in five, tied in four, and within easy striking distance in the other two. Not bad for a party that was crushed in the past two national elections.
Republicans trail Democrats 59-41 in the Senate today. They need 10 pickups to take control. Nine won’t suffice, since Vice President Joe Biden would break the 50-50 tie by voting for Democratic control. To capture the House, Republicans would have to gain 40 seats, which is not out of the question but is still a steep climb.
Let’s start with the Republican Senate seats that once were viewed as highly vulnerable. For the record, I consider any race where the candidates are three percentage points or fewer apart in the latest poll as being essentially tied. In states where nominees haven’t been chosen, I apply the poll result for the leading candidates." |
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