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  Can Bill Halter even force a runoff against Blanche Lincoln?
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Parent(s) Race 
ContributorJason 
Last EditedJason  May 11, 2010 10:03pm
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CategorySpeculative
AuthorMike Madden
News DateWednesday, May 12, 2010 04:00:00 AM UTC0:0
DescriptionWASHINGTON -- When Bill Halter entered the Arkansas Senate primary in early March, progressive activists around the country got excited about the possibility he would take out Blanche Lincoln. A week before the election, though, the only real drama seems to be whether Halter can even force a runoff.

Word from Arkansas is that private polls continue to show Lincoln flirting with the 50 percent mark that she'd need to win next Tuesday's primary outright, without getting into a runoff. Halter allies hope all the people who say they're backing businessman D.C. Morrison (running as a sort of "pox on both their houses" longshot) in polls actually do show up, because that could help hold Lincoln's total down. But the relentlessly negative tone of the TV ads in the campaign, coupled with Lincoln's realization that she actually had a fight on her hands, appears to have helped her consolidate her base while alienating people from Halter a bit.

One private poll that came back Monday showed Lincoln's favorable/unfavorable rating had improved since the beginning of the campaign, while Halter's had slipped. Lincoln was rated favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 37 percent, while Halter was rated favorably by 48 percent of voters and unfavorably by 40 percent. (A source passed along the data to Salon on condition that we didn't identify where it came from.) UPDATE: The Halter campaign points out those findings aren't what other polls are showing. A Mason-Dixon poll out this week, which Halter supporters think was tilted toward Lincoln, had Lincoln rated favorably by only 28 percent of voters and unfavorably by 53 percent. That poll put Halter's favorable/unfavorable rating at 29 percent favorable, 21 percent unfavorable. And Halter spokeswoman Laura Chapin says sources passing on polling data without allowing its source to be disclosed "is like a guy in Vegas not wearing his wedding ring."
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