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Dissecting an indie run by Charlie Crist
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Race
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Contributor | Monsieur |
Last Edited | Monsieur Apr 07, 2010 10:22am |
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Category | Analysis |
Author | Adam Smith |
News Date | Wednesday, April 7, 2010 04:20:00 PM UTC0:0 |
Description | The chatter about Charlie Crist running as an indpendent, no-party-affiliation candidate is roaring again since Crist vetoed the leadership fund bill and Marco Rubio posted great numbers (though remember Crist told Chris Wallace he will support the Republican nominee).
Smart guy Steve Schale crunches the numbers and shows how tough it would be for Crist to win that way. Read the whole thing, but here's a snippet: ...
Assuming the electorate on Election Day is 42% Democratic, 40% Republican and 18% Independent (Dems currently have a 7% advantage, so a 2 point advantage on election day is a fairly conservative estimate), even if Crist got 25% of the Republican and Democratic vote, and a whopping 60% of Independents (with Meek/Rubio splitting the rest), he would only get to 31%, several points short of a win number.
In the more plausible, though still difficult scenario that he gets 50% of independents, he would need 31% of both Rs and Ds (assuming Meek/Rubio split the rest of the NPA) to get to a plurality of voters. It is hard for me to see that many voters from either party bucking their party nominee. Below 50% of Independents, and he has no chance whatsoever. |
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