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  How Bad Is The Environment In Missouri?
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ContributorScottĀ³ 
Last EditedScottĀ³  Apr 01, 2010 11:23am
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CategoryAnalysis
AuthorSean Trende
News DateThursday, April 1, 2010 05:00:00 PM UTC0:0
Description"Yesterday I opined that Missouri might not end up being a particularly competitive state by the time this election cycle winds up. A spate of stories over the past few days demonstrate the decline of the Democrats' fortunes in the Show-Me state:

*Last election, Democrats nearly won the seat of Kenny Hulshof (MO-09). Hulshof ran for Governor, and the district, which historically only sent Republicans to Congress in the biggest landslide years (1920, 1894), only began electing Republicans regularly in 1996, when Hulshof won the seat from Harold Volkmer (even in historically Democratic districts, constituents do not like their Congressman to remark that they are severely undertaxed). Had 5,000 votes switched, it would have sent Democrat Judy Baker to Congress instead of Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer. This year, Democrats failed to field a candidate to take on Luetkemeyer.

*In Missouri's 3rd Congressional District, Russ Carnahan finds himself in a fight for this district. Although the district leans toward the Democrats (D+7), RCP rates the race as "likely Democrat," given his opponent's strong fundraising. At the end of the 4th Quarter, Ed Martin had $335K cash-on-hand while Carnahan had $372K in the bank.

*In Missouri's 4th Congressional District, near-octogenarian Ike Skelton likewise finds himself with a fight on his hands in a district he has held since 1976. The district is heavily Republican (R+14), John McCain carried every county in 2008, and Hillary Clinton carried every county but one in the 2008 Missouri primary. While the Armed Services Committee Chair has a million in the bank, two of his opponents have a quarter million on hand, which should be enough for either to get their message out in this inexpensive market. Skelton hasn't had a tough race since the 1982 redistricting. RCP rates the race as Leans Democrat.

*Democrats barely fielded 2/3 the number of candidates for office in Missouri as Republicans."
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