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Little Ice Age Unlikely, Scientists Say
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP May 06, 2009 07:27pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Wednesday, May 6, 2009 01:25:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Some media reports and headlines recently suggested that the sun's present lack of activity could lead to another Little Ice Age, but many solar scientists say that's unlikely.
Yes, the sun has been quiet lately, with very little magnetic activity on its surface; strong activity would be signified by dark patches called sunspots. Until recently, this was to be expected: The sun goes through roughly 11-year cycles, and 2008 was a predicted trough of activity.
But so far, the sun hasn't seemed to pick up in activity as predicted — sunspots were seen on only 12 of the first 90 days in 2009.
The previous grand minimum, called the Maunder Minimum, occurred between 1645 and 1715. The lull fell during a longer range (from about the 16th century to the mid-19th century) when certain areas on Earth experienced a dip in temperatures that became known as the "Little Ice Age."
This time around, Earth's atmosphere is packed with carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The warming effects of these heat-trapping gases will probably dwarf any slight cooling that occurs because of a lull in the solar cycle.
"It's possible that there would be some regions that cool more, but globally we wouldn't expect cooling of more than a few tenths of a degree," Lean said. "And that would be an order of magnitude less than the effects we expect because of global warming, where we're talking about warming of 1 to 4 degrees." |
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