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  Vulnerability Index for House Elections
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ContributorKarma Policeman 
Last EditedKarma Policeman  Jan 16, 2009 11:41pm
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News DateSaturday, January 17, 2009 05:40:00 AM UTC0:0
DescriptionOver the holidays, SSP readers seemed to have a lot of fun with the vulnerable House Republicans and vulnerable House Democrats threads. This left me wondering, as so many things seem to do, "is there a way to quantify that?" In other words, is there a data-driven way to approach the question instead of just relying on perceptions (and also to make sure that potentially overlooked races don't fall through the cracks)?

Here's what I tried. It's actually a bit reminiscent of my PVI/Vote Index, in that it measures representative performance against the district's lean, except here performance is measured by the rep's margin in the last election. (The data for many of the 2008 electoral margins is available in the recent "How'd We Do?" post, conveniently arranged in order from closest to least close.)
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