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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Two New Polls Out in Louisiana
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Race
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| Contributor | Sherlock Holmes (a retired OC public servant collecting his pension) |
| Last Edited | Sherlock Holmes (a retired OC public servant collecting his pension) Nov 05, 2003 04:59pm |
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| Category | Poll |
| Media | Newspaper - New Orleans Times-Picayune |
| News Date | Wednesday, November 5, 2003 06:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Republican Bobby Jindal and Democrat Kathleen Blanco were only a few points apart in two polls released Wednesday, but one pollster said Jindal has a slight advantage among those most likely to vote.
Secretary of State Fox McKeithen has predicted that turnout in the Nov. 15 election will be even lower than the Oct. 4 primary when about half the state's registered voters went to the polls. That would favor Jindal and be dangerous for Blanco, said pollster Susan E. Howell, director of the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center.
"If this is low turnout like the primary, I don't see how she can win," Howell said.
UNO's poll of 731 voters, which was taken Oct. 25 through Nov. 1, showed 44 percent for Jindal, 42 percent for Blanco and 15 percent undecided, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The figures are rounded.
But when looking only at those likely to vote, Jindal stayed at 44 percent, but Blanco fell to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
A nightly tracking poll by pollster Verne Kennedy made public Wednesday suggested that Jindal's endorsement by New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin may have given the Republican candidate a bump. The UNO survey was finished before Nagin issued his endorsement Monday.
Kennedy's poll of 600 voters through Tuesday night put Jindal at 46 percent compared to Blanco's 44 percent. That was up from a 43-43 tie through the previous night. That survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Kennedy said a major endorsement gives a candidate a bump that can last for several days, but settles back down. In the primary, Nagin endorsed Democrat Randy Ewing, who ran fifth.
Based on his continued polling, Kennedy said the election depends right now on both the level of black participation and the percentage of black vote that Jindal can get. Kennedy said Jindal currently is getting 15 percent of the black support.
"If he gets that, he wins," Kennedy said.
The UNO poll said Jindal was getting 17 percent of the black support, while Blanco was getting 68 percent. Whites favored Jindal by a 54-31 margin.
"Kathleen Blanco has to energize her base to get them to the polls," Howell said, while Jindal just "has to continue what he's been doing."
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