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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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CAN MCCAIN OVERCOME THE TRIPLE WHAMMY?
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP May 30, 2008 06:25pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Friday, May 30, 2008 12:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president's party has held the White House.
The higher the president's approval rating and the stronger the growth rate of the economy, the more likely it is that the president's party will be victorious. However, if the president's party has controlled the White House for two terms or longer it is less likely to be successful. Time-for-change sentiment seems to increase after eight years regardless of the president's popularity or the state of the economy.
These three factors can be combined to produce an Electoral Barometer score that measures the overall national political climate. The formula for computing this score is simply the president's net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president's party has held the White House for two terms or longer. Mathematically, this formula can be written as:
EB = NAR + (5*GDP) - 25. |
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